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Chili Pepper Pete 11917

Interesting stats from WR 2020 Vs 2019

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I have read a lot of the post talking about how different WR was this year and some perceptions so I thought I would run the numbers and see if there were any trends.    What I found was completely unexpected based on some of the comments I saw 

 

36 categories were recognized at WR this year.   17 top finishers in category were faster that last year.  17 were shower 1 was within the same seconds not rounded out to 10ths so I called that neutral and 1 was not recognized last year

 

Top 10 shooters who were at both matches finished on average 6 sec slower,  If you take one shooter out who finished 40 sec faster this year to last it brought the average up to 9 sec slower.   Then things started to get unexpectedly strange.    In the top 10 I actually found and compared the actual shooter and his score from this year to last.  For the others I just did the number finished and compared both years.

 

Top 10.      9 sec Slower

95-105.      9 sec Slower

195- 205.   5 sec Slower

295- 305    0 sec Slower or Neutral

395- 405.   7  sec Faster

495-505     12 sec Faster

595-605.    45 sec Faster than last year

 

Draw your own conclusions

 

Next oddity  what categories did better this year to last. I’m just going to list the category and go plus or minus for the top 5 shooters.

- means time was faster than last year.       + means time was slower than last year.     N was neutral without going into 10ths

 

FC.         - - +++

LFC.      - - +++

FCD.     + - - - -

FTM.    - - + - -

BW.     - ++- +

LBW.   +++++

CC.      - - - - +

CCG.   +++

Duel.    - - - - -

LD.      ++ - + -

SD.     +++ - -

GF.     - - - ++

LGF.   - - - - +

S.          + + - - ?

LS.       - - ++ -

SGF     - - - - - 

49r     +++++

L49r.   - ++++

SS.      +++ - +

LSS.    - ++++

CBY     +++++

CG.     - ++++

W.      +++++

LW.     N ++++

Broo.   - - +

Btte.    - -

JB.       + - -

ES.      +++++

GD.     ++++ -

CBN.   +++++

CBSS.  ++ -

FCGF.    +++++

EP.      - - - - -

LEP.    +

SSD.    - - - - -

 

So look at the finishes and draw your own conclusions  but I see some interesting patterns

 

 

Best regards,

 

Chili

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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bad comparison...other variables...weather?????

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You can not with any degree of accuracy compare two different matches using time as the basis for comparison. There are tons of variables at play like transitions, target distance, target size, weather, who showed up, distance between shooting positions, etc. I’ve seen people talk about so and so shot EOT in the same time as they did last year so...  Well, it’s a neat coincidence, but it doesn’t mean anything. 

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True, but I have no idea how to factor that in, Do you?   My intent was an overall comparison with no pre conceived notion and I still think there are some interesting findings.  If you don’t then thats fine too,  Its just information not personal,   I thought it was interesting and thought I would share it,  obviously you dont.  

 

 

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1 minute ago, Chili Pepper Pete 11917 said:

True, but I have no idea how to factor that in, Do you?   My intent was an overall comparison with no pre conceived notion and I still think there are some interesting findings.  If you don’t then thats fine too,  Its just information not personal,   I thought it was interesting and thought I would share it,  obviously you dont.  

 

 

I have no idea how it could be done. Sorry if my response came off as snarky as that want my intention. The numbers are interesting for sure, but it’s hard to know what they mean. 

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Its just the information, do with it as you will.  If you think its not worth looking at,  don’t.  I don’t know what it means either,  they are just numbers.   I’m sure someone will find it interesting, if not,   it will be a short thread :P

 

Chili

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Almost seems as if some types of shooters may have fared better this year than last. Anyway CPP thanks for making the comparisons.

kR

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1 hour ago, Phantom, SASS #54973 said:

bad comparison...other variables...weather?????

 

Even older timers could lose proper calculations.

 

..........Widder

 

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I thought it is interesting.  While last year had weather issues this year did not( at least for me ).  the target placement and distances according to the match director were similar.  Yet the times were slower for the fastest 1/3 of the shooters, neutral for the middle and faster for the bottom 1/3.  So were the top 1/3 more careful or fewer target dumps.  The middle comfortable and the bottom taking advantage of simple but challenging stages?   Very Interesting as Artie would say.   Thanks for your effort.

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2 hours ago, Phantom, SASS #54973 said:

bad comparison...other variables...weather?????

Also different shooters. 

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Ground conditions play a heavy roll in stage performance if holding all other variables static...

 

So...

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Most of us got a year older, too.:D

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And how many funnel cakes you ate!:lol:

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Throw a few stages in with 6 sg rather than 4 sg and there go your numbers.  Single shot R/P sequences vs. multiple hit sequences, there are many variables. Movement between shooting positions makes little difference in overall time. I had some good ice cream and got to see Billy Boots, all is well.

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Dare I make the comment/suggestion that we borrow an idea from the USPSA shooters and have something like a qualifier at every state and above match. What if SASS were to design  1-6 qualifying stages and at every state and above match the match director is required to write a certain number, one would be fine,  of these stages into their match.  Standardize a handful of stages so that we can compare scores across the country/world. Weather could still be a factor, but it is at least a start. 

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Finally!  SUCCESS AT LAST!  A match that slowed down the fast guys and sped up the slow guys.

 

And THEY said it couldn’t be done.

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The way I have it figured is if the top 500 or so shooters at this year's match hadn't shown up, I could have been no. 1, if I had gone.   Total time makes no difference. 

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Once, I evaluated a match. I was on the match committee and thought the match had too many Ps. The following were the things I noted.

  1. Did some individuals have multiple Ps, who?
  2. Did some PMs have more Ps on their posses, who? Rank the PMs. I've shot with the PM with the most Ps and I felt he should never be a PM. Alas, he was a club president at the time.
  3. Which scenarios had the most Ps? Rank them.

My focus was on the stages and scenarios with the most Ps as this was more out of whack than misses. There were 91 Ps out of 155 shooters.  There were  67 shooter with the 91 Ps. The match was in the foothills and created more reasons for misses, especially for BP shooters.

 

This was in 2005 and scenarios were quite different then. Looking back, some seem quite easy as I've seen them frequently since then. Others, I see infrequently.

 

Six of 12 stages seemed to have excessive Ps. They ranged from 6 Ps to 25 Ps per stage. The stage next in line to the 25 Ps had 12 Ps. So, obviously the one with 25 was a big problem. They were the focus of the evaluation.

 

All scenarios were written to be shot either left to right or right to left.

 

The stage with 25 Ps had Nevada sweeps beginning on the center target and split shotguns. I don't remember seeing many Nevada sweeps like that at that time. So my thought is that its unfamiliarity led to the difficulty.

 

Anyway, that was then and Ps were the problem. This is now and misses are the item most complained about.

 

My recommendation is to focus on the stages with the most misses and evaluate the distances to targets. If you don't have the ability to gather it from stage data, I hope you get evaluation sheets from the shooters.

 

Respectfully submitted,

 

Allie Mo

 

PS The people who turned in evaluation sheets raved about the match as it was so much easier (less misses) than the previous match, which had one stage shot entirely from the hip. LOL! I distinctly remember missing 35. Someone else tallied them for me.

 

 

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47 minutes ago, Clay Thornton said:

Dare I make the comment/suggestion that we borrow an idea from the USPSA shooters and have something like a qualifier at every state and above match. What if SASS were to design  1-6 qualifying stages and at every state and above match the match director is required to write a certain number, one would be fine,  of these stages into their match.  Standardize a handful of stages so that we can compare scores across the country/world. Weather could still be a factor, but it is at least a start. 

 

I imagine that would kill attendance.

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1 hour ago, Beartrap SASS#57175 said:

And how many funnel cakes you ate!:lol:

only 1....and am sad about it.  :(

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1 hour ago, Clay Thornton said:

Dare I make the comment/suggestion that we borrow an idea from the USPSA shooters and have something like a qualifier at every state and above match. What if SASS were to design  1-6 qualifying stages and at every state and above match the match director is required to write a certain number, one would be fine,  of these stages into their match.  Standardize a handful of stages so that we can compare scores across the country/world. Weather could still be a factor, but it is at least a start. 

Who would keep the stats on these qualifiers?  I'm pretty sure the current SASS staff doesn't have much, if any spare time.

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34 minutes ago, Jeb Stuart #65654 said:

Who would keep the stats on these qualifiers?  I'm pretty sure the current SASS staff doesn't have much, if any spare time.

That would be up to SASS. My recommendation is simply a suggestion as to a value added service to the membership as a whole. They can administrator it however they see fit.  

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55 minutes ago, Clay Thornton said:

That would be up to SASS. My recommendation is simply a suggestion as to a value added service to the membership as a whole. They can administrator it however they see fit.  

The point I was trying to make is that I don't think SASS has the personal or funds to administer a program such as you suggested.  With all of the shooters and matches I'm sure that would be a full time task for at least one person.

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6 hours ago, Yul Lose said:

Most of us got a year older, too.:D

Maybe you...But I am 39....Again.....

 

Texas Lizard

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5 hours ago, Clay Thornton said:

That would be up to SASS. My recommendation is simply a suggestion as to a value added service to the membership as a whole. They can administrator it however they see fit.  

 

First of all, SASS doesn't put on or regulate Winter Range other than to require that all shooters be SASS members. The Arizona Territorial Company of Rough Riders tries exhaustively to make Winter Range as inclusive as possible. We try to put on a match where any shooter of any experience can have fun , compete, and have pride in how they place compared to the best shooters in the world. Our shooters, sponsors, vendors, and the public spectators love to see the diversity in style, talent, and enthusiasm that our match inspires.

 

Although we are sanctioned by SASS as the National Championships of Cowboy and Wild Bunch Shooting, we will always welcome any shooter that is a SASS member, has a set of shootin' irons, and is committed to having as much fun as humanly possible.

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All I want to know is this, When do the applications for Winter Range 2021 comes out?:D I'm ready for another trip to Arizona Territory.

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cool stuff Chili,,,  

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21 minutes ago, Jailhouse Jim, SASS #13104 said:

All I want to know is this, When do the applications for Winter Range 2021 comes out?:D I'm ready for another trip to Arizona Territory.

 

Usually right after EOT ends.

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9 hours ago, Allie Mo, SASS No. 25217 said:

Once, I evaluated a match. I was on the match committee and thought the match had too many Ps. The following were the things I noted.

  1. Did some individuals have multiple Ps, who?
  2. Did some PMs have more Ps on their posses, who? Rank the PMs. I've shot with the PM with the most Ps and I felt he should never be a PM. Alas, he was a club president at the time.
  3. Which scenarios had the most Ps? Rank them.

My focus was on the stages and scenarios with the most Ps as this was more out of whack than misses. There were 91 Ps out of 155 shooters.  There were  67 shooter with the 91 Ps. The match was in the foothills and created more reasons for misses, especially for BP shooters.

 

This was in 2005 and scenarios were quite different then. Looking back, some seem quite easy as I've seen them frequently since then. Others, I see infrequently.

 

Six of 12 stages seemed to have excessive Ps. They ranged from 6 Ps to 25 Ps per stage. The stage next in line to the 25 Ps had 12 Ps. So, obviously the one with 25 was a big problem. They were the focus of the evaluation.

 

All scenarios were written to be shot either left to right or right to left.

 

The stage with 25 Ps had Nevada sweeps beginning on the center target and split shotguns. I don't remember seeing many Nevada sweeps like that at that time. So my thought is that its unfamiliarity led to the difficulty.

 

Anyway, that was then and Ps were the problem. This is now and misses are the item most complained about.

 

My recommendation is to focus on the stages with the most misses and evaluate the distances to targets. If you don't have the ability to gather it from stage data, I hope you get evaluation sheets from the shooters.

 

Respectfully submitted,

 

Allie Mo

 

PS The people who turned in evaluation sheets raved about the match as it was so much easier (less misses) than the previous match, which had one stage shot entirely from the hip. LOL! I distinctly remember missing 35. Someone else tallied them for me.

 

 

Never saw an evaluation form, never got an email with a survey link.  I shot clean which was my objective so not much to complain about but overtly reaching out to all shooters would be a good thing.

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2 hours ago, Cheyenne Culpepper 32827 said:

cool stuff Chili,,,  

yes....and there definitely seemed to be some of us who shot better in the rain. :rolleyes:  Of course, a couple of 73s going down did not make for great category finish. I think my worse finish in 15+ years, but glad to have made it to the "podium".

Missed you Chili, and gang.

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On 3/8/2020 at 6:50 PM, Chili Pepper Pete 11917 said:

 

Draw your own conclusions

 

 

I think these data are super interesting. As others have pointed out, a direct 1:1 interpretation of the matches with regard to time doesn't necessarily work, but two WR matches are the most similar data sets we're going to find. And time has to at least be the baseline metric, considering it's the metric we use to determine who wins. We can't necessarily say 'this year's top shooter would've beaten last year's!' But we can look at time spreads between groups, group trends, etc and possibly draw some conclusions.

 

It seems like folks at the bottom of the score sheet did significantly better overall- was this due to the weather being better this year (was it? I wasn't there...)? Or, was the weather the same, or worse, and therefore not relevant?

Was it due to a different style of stage writing that reduced the overall number of P's and misses?

Or, are there more returning shooters, who are likely to accrue fewer penalties and generally shoot faster due to experience- thus making the bottom of the score sheet more competitive?

The Duelist and Gunfighter categories seem to have improved over last year across all age groups. How did those shooting styles fare better- did this year's match include more stages 'friendly' to those styles?

 

Or, are there no conclusions to be drawn from any of the numbers? That is just as relevant of a finding!

 

Regardless, the fast shooters are still fast, and still winning. I enjoyed reading and thinking about it. Thanks, CPP, for putting it together.

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Billy Boots,  we missed being there too. Hope to see you at EOT.  

 

Best regards,

 

Chili

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