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Snakebite

The near Future of CAS

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There are a few facts that we know to be true. For what ever reason, loading supplies have dried up. Those that play the game and reload usually have some stock on hand. Some more than others, but without doubt those supplies are drying up as the drought continues, and the game goes on. We will reach a point, (and that point has come for some shooters that I know), when we will have to stop shooting because we simply do not have the supplies to continue. If water is short, you don't stop drinking, but you do cut down on water use until you can replenish the supply. It is NOT business as usual if you want to stay in business. Many clubs shoot both on Saturday and Sunday. Most of them have few shooter on each day. IMO, it would be wise to drop one day of shooting until this dry spell has ended. Getting everyone out to the range on one day would cut the ammo use in half, and would also generally increase the numbers a bit. I would rather shoot with a posse of 10 than a posse of 5. Yeah, yeah, I know that it is not totally correct, but the fact is folks are running out of ammo. In order to prolong the supply until it becomes available again it just makes sense to me to cut down. It doesn't matter if you are one of the guys that has a room full of supplies. Shooting alone is just not as fun. I would rather see clubs cut down to one day than to end up not shooting at all because of the lack of ammo.  JMO

 

Snakebite 

Edited by Snakebite
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Good topic Snakebite.   And good point.

I've got 2 friends who recently went 'dry'.   Both are Cowboy shooters.   One was totally dry and the other went dry with their 

ammo manufactoring supplies and those who bought ammo from them could no longer shoot due to 'no ammo'.

The biggest culprit seems to be primers.

 

..........Widder

 

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I've been wondering the same. I think people are thinking things will go back to "normal" come November, but if the election goes a certain way, I don't see this drought ending anytime soon. I just keep buying supplies when I see them. I have a few friends who keep an eye out for me too. Primers are certainly the bottleneck.

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I guess that with winter coming, especially in the northern part of the country, many clubs will stop shooting until next spring.  Hopefully, some supplies and ammo will start to reappear just as they did in all the other shortages.  Whether or not this shortage will be longer than others, or will result in a major shift in the production of ammo and components, remains to be seen.  The lack of primers are, as Widder mentioned, the biggest issue for those that reload, although powder runs a close second.  In an odd way, the COVID "lockdown" has resulted in fewer folks shooting in many areas reducing, at least a little, the demand for components and ammo.  2021 is going to be an interesting year, for sure.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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It's not the matches that's causing shortages. It's those darn people that practice!:P

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Great topic.

I just started a year ago, so I am/was still getting a feel for what I needed for my supplies. As I sit right now, I'm good till somewhere around May.

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I'm of the opinion that this shortage may last longer than some folks might think. That is because of the increased number of NEW folks buying guns. That puts an even larger strain on the manufactured ammo industry. Just like the Preppers have buckets of Rice, Beans and other non/less perishable food stuffs and items squirreled away under end tables, beds, store rooms and such, there are many folks that are Rat-Holing Ammo. All of this is for that SHTF scenario. Well I admit that I am one of both of them. I hope I am wrong, but I think that this shortage is going to last well past the first part of next year and when the gap closes you will not being seeing the $35/1000 primers again. And..................... don't over look your shotgun shells or supplies! JMO.

 

Snakebite

Edited by Snakebite
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We have enough loaded for next season and enough of everything for several more years at the rate we are consuming them.  But we don't shoot as many matches as some people do. Our local clubs shut down in October and don't start again until April.  

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I seem to have a stockpile of everything, so I have been giving primers to younger shooters and loaning ammo to folks in my club who will pay me back once they can find ammo.

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I recall the last time this occurred clubs were much more receptive of allowing folks to shoot 22's in matches, just to allow the game to continue.

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Some of our local cowboy shooters are running low on primers. There's a little trading going on and concern for the next few months. This is tough cause down here in Florida these are the best months for shooting. With USPSA things are a worse. There are more younger shooters that don't reload. Our last USPSA match was down to twenty-five shooters when we would normally have over fifty. Of course it is going to take a while for everyone to get stocked back up once the flow of primers and ammo returns to normal. So the first few months will be almost as bad as now because anyone who has run dry will buy as much as they can when they see it on the shelf. I would guess that it would be late spring at the earliest before anyone will be able to feel confident of getting what they want when they want it at a reasonable price.

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I'm was seeing where 9mm is going for a buck a round right now in some places. With what I have on hand, I'm thinking I could get a new (ish) truck....

:o

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People know I have plenty of powder, primers, .22, 9mm and .45acp, so I get hounded almost every day. I've arranged deals with TWO Cowboy Action shooters to buy powder at the "old rates" - I know they're going to use it, and not try to triple their money selling to someone else. When I quote a price for components to someone else I haven't seen or heard from in ten years or more, claiming they need to load a couple boxes of .30-06 for hunting season or whatever, they get all bent out of shape at the price and I have to remind them I'm not trying to sell the stuff, they're trying to buy it. ;)

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Anyone that needs a couple of boxes of 30.06 for hunting season, shouldn't be hunting. I usually use one cartridge per year... sometimes it takes two. ;)

 

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Well... maybe 3-5 to make sure it's sighted in. Another 3-5 each time you move the crosshairs. Then one or two for an elk, one or two for each deer, one for an antelope, maybe one or two for a bear, and a couple for camp meat. 

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On Several of the other gun forums and Facebook, there are more posts since COVID and the Election ... How do I reload and powder charges for 38’s and 45’s. Granted all these folks are not Cowboy shooters.  Also, want to know about shothell reloading,  The most of the reloading questions are for black gun ammo.

 

On the flip side, I have enough reloads that could supply several posses for a couple of matches with center fire and shot shells 

And if I ran out:

*. 1700 lbs of ingots

*. Giga zillion of already cast bullets

*. Plenty of molds to choose from to cast more

*. A drawer full of primers

*  Cans of empty cases and bags of shotgun hulls

*. All the smokeless and black power needed for all calibers

*. Every set of dies for all the calibers

*. Check how many loading presses are now out of stock

The key .... just like the squirrels, stock up when the nuts are plentiful and fall from the trees

Or, if you snooze - you loose as many are doing now for ammo and primers

Edited by John Boy
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10 minutes ago, John Boy said:

On Several of the other gun forums and Facebook, there are more posts since COVID and the Election ... How do I reload and powder charges for 38’s and 45’s. Granted all these folks are not Cowboy shooters.  Also, want to know about shothell reloading,  The most of the reloading questions are for black gun ammo.

 

On the flip side, I have enough reloads that could supply several posses for a couple of matches with center fire and shot shells 

And if I ran out:

*. 1700 lbs of ingots

*. Giga zillion of already cast bullets

*. Plenty of molds to choose from to cast more

*. A drawer full of primers

*  Cans of empty cases and bags of shotgun hulls

*. All the smokeless and black power needed for all calibers

*. Every set of dies for all the calibers

*. Check how many loading presses are now out of stock

The key .... just like the squirrels, stock up when the nuts are plentiful and fall from the trees

Or, if you snooze - you loose as many are doing now for ammo and primers

Nice work, John.  Say hello to the boys for me.

 

Tex

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2 minutes ago, John Boy said:

*. Check how many loading presses are out of stock

I couldn't find HSM or SNS .45 acp bullets for Wild Bunch, so I figured I'd buy an RCBS mold with the stepped shoulder like the commercial 230's... none are available - I even posted a WTB ad here on the Wire. I finally found one, ONE, online at Ellwood Epps Sporting Goods in Ontario, Canada. It arrived a couple days ago, and I cast up about 800 that same night - it's paid for itself already!

 

RCBS_45-230-RN.jpg.ace89597d51576d627020409bceb3328.jpg

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Johnson, book make this website for quality bullets ... https://cjncasting.com/ 

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Tex, will definitely tell the boys you said Hello. Hoping all is safe and well with you

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We went through this not that many years ago at the last election, and again prior to the previous occupant of the Whitehouse, and we will likely go through it again.  I do agree with you that I believe this will last a little bit longer than the last couple of times because of the new owners, but unless they get into a sport like CAS, IPSC, IDPA, or three gun, they will buy a few boxes and they will languish on their shelves thereafter.

 

 Of course, that is dependent on who wins the election.  It could get considerably worse for eternity if one side wins, but if the other side wins, I suspect it will start to get better mid-late next year.  Unless they are actively using it, most people tend to not spend money on things that sit on the shelf for decades, so inventory will eventually return.

 

Regardless, this should be a(nother) wake-up call to all.  When prices and inventory are back to something approaching normal, stock up a little.  When you do happen to find it, let others know or buy a little extra and pass it along to those in need, without a markup, or just leave a little on the shelf for the next guy.  I knew a couple that had about 500K rounds of ammo stocked in their house "just in case".  Never understood that.  Couldn't possibly use it all before the authorities called in the troops, and there was no way to move it if they got over-run with zombies.  Of course, maybe it was their version of a 401K and they are selling now!  :lol:

 

Back about 12 years ago, I remember starting my lead collection so I could make bullets.  Kept telling myself that if I could just get 10,000 lbs I would be able to make about 450K bullets which would get me and mine through the rest of our lives cowboy shooting.  Then I realized that if it turned out that I did in fact need to have done that, I would likely have been the only guy shooting, and as Snakebite pointed out, that ain't quite as much fun.

 

As long as it is legal to purchase and possess supply and demand always balance, it's just a matter of when.  If it becomes illegal to purchase or possess, well......

 

The first rule of Ammo Club is you don't talk about Ammo Club.  :rolleyes:

 

020312libyaGE.jpg

 

Edited by Dogmeat Dad, SASS #48563L
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I am very happy that buckets of WW’s I got for free and  scrap lead I bought for 65 cents a pound is now selling for $3,50 and higher a pound.  Money in the bank if grand kids need same support for college

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The price of lead baffles me. The spot price yesterday was 86 1/2¢ a pound. The local recycle yard wants a buck and a quarter a pound for "dirty" lead that they pay 50¢ for, and Craigslist ads for cleaned lead alloy (wheel weights, etc.) in muffin tin ingots starts at around $2.00.

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Johnson; Yeah, they ask 2.00/lb, but those ads tend to stay up a while. I just got back from buying some Craigslist lead. 3 hours of driving and I bought 390 lbs for 1.00/lb. Plus I stopped off at the leather store to pick up half a hide, saving me another 1.5 hours of driving there. Stopped off at the bank, hit the Auto Zone. I rarely go out for just one errand, gas ain't cheap either and my time is worth something too.

   As for components, I need to go out and take a real inventory. I load for 4 shooters, so things get depleted faster than you think sometimes.

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I was getting the front end alignment on the F150 and noticed the guy that works on truck and tractor tires was not doing anything so I went over and started up a conversation.   We got around to wheel weights.  He had half a 5 gallon bucket of used weights. Many were 4 oz. But a casual look I seen many on top were zink.  I'm sure he would have given me the half buck but I figured it would have been a lot of time to sort them out.  Besides,   I have more lead than I'll use up now. 

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Many clubs run 2 day shoots because they need the $$$.

Some folks don't get both Saturday and Sunday off.

Many clubs here in MO. don't start shoot'n till about 1pm on Sunday because of church.

OLG  

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A lot of clubs around here shoot 5 stages in hot months and 6 stages in cooler months.   Perhaps keeping them at 5 stages would help a bit.  As I get older, five is plenty.  Perhaps write some stages like the old days where you didn't always shoot all 4 guns on each stage and not always 10 rifle rounds??  Nah, that won't happen. ^_^

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32 minutes ago, Warden Callaway said:

Besides,   I have more lead than I'll use up now. 

Twenty years ago, when I measured my stash in tons instead of pounds, that's what I thought too. Now, it's down to no more than maybe 200 pounds or so. :(

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3 minutes ago, Three Foot Johnson said:

Twenty years ago, when I measured my stash in tons instead of pounds, that's what I thought too. Now, it's down to no more than maybe 200 pounds or so. :(

 

I shoot into bullet traps and recover more than half so it goes further.  Plus we still buy a lot of store bought bullets.  So I don't dip very far into my reserve. 

 

5aa7fe6457038_Lead3March2018.jpg.92e64191920711dc10961e2b74647087.jpg

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I'm with Goody.  22's at club matches would be fine in my book.  May have to loan the 22's to several but that would not bother me although I could see where it may bother some.   

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No clubs around central Florida shoot both days in a weekend unless there is something special going on like a state championship. Maybe its the humidity, you know, it's not just that it's hot. :lol:

Components are drying up fast though. I recently bought a LEE lead pot and molds.

 I melted down 62lbs of scuba weights that I hadn't used in a few years to cast a few weeks back. Scraped up about 30 pounds (after it was washed) of range scrap in my cooler at the last stage after the match ended today. Maybe the copper jackets will pay for something else if I pile it high enough in the coming months.

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13 hours ago, Warden Callaway said:

I was getting the front end alignment on the F150 and noticed the guy that works on truck and tractor tires was not doing anything so I went over and started up a conversation.   We got around to wheel weights.  He had half a 5 gallon bucket of used weights. Many were 4 oz. But a casual look I seen many on top were zink.  I'm sure he would have given me the half buck but I figured it would have been a lot of time to sort them out.  Besides,   I have more lead than I'll use up now. 

Throw them all in the pot over a campfire and melt the lead. The steel clips and zinc floats on the molten lead. Easy peezy

Edited by Texas Joker
Bad spaller

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If folks are running low, couldn’t they just skip either a Saturday or Sunday match? If they’re not doing that, should the club force them to by going to once a week?


The only reduction in shooting from going from two a week to one a week will either be people who wanted to shoot both days and now can’t, or people who can’t shoot at all because the day they needed is no longer offered. 
 

How is either of those outcomes a good thing?

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I've got enough for the rest of this year since there's only a couple left (Old man Winter) and all of next year but practice is pretty much out of the question!

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