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Yusta B.

OK - so what are the odds ?????

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Stage: Rifle is shot first .... yada  yada  yada .......

So I shoulder, lever, aim & shoot .... pfffftt - TO yells "squib" I ground the gun & get directed to the ULT to clear rifle. TO says "no rnd down range - would you like a restart?"

I would & go to LT, with cleared rifle, reload, shoot stage & life is good again.

 

About 5 minutes later my daughter steps up - same stage - same result - EXACTLY the same. First rnd in rifle is a squib. She also gets a reshoot.

 

So - what are the odds ?

 

To cap it off,  our overall finishes in the match were :

Granddaughter 12th

Daughter            13th

Me                       14th

 

Moral of the story: No matter the odds - stuff can & does happen.

 

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Sounds like a good day to buy a lottery ticket.

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6 minutes ago, Fence Cutter said:

Sounds like a good day to buy a lottery ticket.

I'm thinkin too late - used up all the luck on the stage :wacko:

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4 minutes ago, Yusta B. said:

I'm thinkin too late - used up all the luck on the stage :wacko:

 

Maybe,

but I think you're really lucky if you get to shoot with your daughter and granddaughter on the same day. ( that is worth way more than any lottery ticket)

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Was there 14 people at the match?  With all the ammo malfunctions, that part makes sense. 

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6 minutes ago, Ramblin Gambler said:

Was there 14 people at the match?  With all the ammo malfunctions, that part makes sense. 

I believe it was 20 something - enough for 2 posses.

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The odds are ALWAYS 50-50.  Either it's gonna happen...or it ain't.  :)

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Once you find a squib in a batch, there is a pretty good change you will find another.

 

To be safe, always bring two separate batches of bullets.

 

 

 

"He has a 50-50 chance but there is only a 10% chance of that."

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I would be far more concerned about WHY the squibs happened :excl:

And, is there now a chance for a double charge in that lot of ammo?

OLG 

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15 minutes ago, Marauder SASS #13056 said:

Once you find a squib in a batch, there is a pretty good change you will find another.


Is this more likely with a progressive rather than a single stage loader?

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You can get sloppy and complacent with ANY machine.  No matter how simple nor complex.  When you reload, it isn't "IF" you going to have a squib.  It's WHEN.  Then, how often if one really doesn't play attention.  Regardless of your care and attention, YOU ARE subject to Murphy's  Law.  If it can go wrong, it will.  At the worst possible time.  Denial is Futile.  You will be assimilated.

 

I mention I absolutely HATE Otto Correct??

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Yusta,

In the manner which you described that actually happened, the odds became 100%..... because

it actually happened.

 

The odds before it happened would be zero.  But once it happens, the odds change.

 

NOW, the odds of it happening AGAIN is another story.

 

..........Widder

 

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I know that there was 100% chance that you had a great day shooting with your daughter and granddaughter. Those are the most important Odds that there are. Glad that you had fun and no Firearms were injured in the days activities.

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3 hours ago, bgavin said:


Is this more likely with a progressive rather than a single stage loader?

 

Either.

It's caused buy inattention and/or lack of concentration & focus. 

OLG 

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3 hours ago, bgavin said:


Is this more likely with a progressive rather than a single stage loader?

Yes

32 minutes ago, The Original Lumpy Gritz said:

 

Either.

It's caused buy inattention and/or lack of concentration & focus. 

OLG 

Indeed, but much easier to be inattentive with 6 plus things going on at a time than just 1. Since I started taking a poll of squibs and types of presses about 3 years ago, 100% have been on a progressive press 

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4 hours ago, bgavin said:


Is this more likely with a progressive rather than a single stage loader?

I run a powder check die on the progressive so squibs are less likely.  I had the powder through expander die on my turret press plug a couple of days ago.  Three rounds got through before I saw it.  Had to weigh about 25 rounds to find the three squib loads.  It can and will happen.

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13 hours ago, Yusta B. said:

I believe it was 20 something - enough for 2 posses.

 

I just hate days like that!

Blackfoot

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7 hours ago, El Hombre Sin Nombre said:

Yes

Indeed, but much easier to be inattentive with 6 plus things going on at a time than just 1. Since I started taking a poll of squibs and types of presses about 3 years ago, 100% have been on a progressive press 

 

I've never actually kept any record or statistics, but it does seem the same to me.

 

When someone at a match gets a squib (No fire or very LOW powered round), they will

sometimes comment about their reloading press.

 

I do know of a couple occasions where it turned out to be a primer problem.

And I've actually been told by 2 shooters during the past 15 years that when they

pulled the bullet from a 'No Fire' round, a BUG was in their case/powder and had died

right over the flash hole.   In one of those, the person told me it was a Lady Bug.

 

I had a very reputable shooter tell me that he lost a big match because of a 

No Fire and the time it took to replace the dead round costed him the category win.

When he got home, he pulled the bullet, punched out the primer and discovered

there wasn't an anvil or mixture in the primer.   OUCH!

 

Stuff happens.

 

..........Widder

 

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Better watch out Yusta, they’ll start calling you Squibby!!!:lol:

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9 hours ago, El Hombre Sin Nombre said:

Yes

Indeed, but much easier to be inattentive with 6 plus things going on at a time than just 1. Since I started taking a poll of squibs and types of presses about 3 years ago, 100% have been on a progressive press 

 

I've  been run'n a Dillon since 1987

I started reloading in 1967 on a RCBS jr that I still have.

Started reloading SG ammo in 1978 on a MEC 600 jr, that I still use.

I have never had a 'squib' come off of those presses.

Why-because I don't allow myownself to be distracted when I'm reloading. 

That means no phone, TV or visitors. 

I do have a radio going........

Just takes a bit of discipline is all.

OLG 

 

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3 minutes ago, The Original Lumpy Gritz said:

 

I've  been run'n a Dillon since 1987

I started reloading in 1967 on a RCBS jr that I still have.

Started reloading SG ammo in 1978 on a MEC 600 jr, that I still use.

I have never had a 'squib' come off of those presses.

Why-because I don't allow myownself to be distracted when I'm reloading. 

That means no phone, TV or visitors. 

I do have a radio going........

Just takes a bit of discipline is all.

OLG 

 

Pretty much what I experienced - before yesterday ......  ;)

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2 hours ago, Widder, SASS #59054 said:

 

I've never actually kept any record or statistics, but it does seem the same to me.

 

When someone at a match gets a squib (No fire or very LOW powered round), they will

sometimes comment about their reloading press.

 

I do know of a couple occasions where it turned out to be a primer problem.

And I've actually been told by 2 shooters during the past 15 years that when they

pulled the bullet from a 'No Fire' round, a BUG was in their case/powder and had died

right over the flash hole.   In one of those, the person told me it was a Lady Bug.

 

I had a very reputable shooter tell me that he lost a big match because of a 

No Fire and the time it took to replace the dead round costed him the category win.

When he got home, he pulled the bullet, punched out the primer and discovered

there wasn't an anvil or mixture in the primer.   OUCH!

 

Stuff happens.

 

..........Widder

 

 

I have seen far more squibs in the game,  than all the other gun games I have ever played combined.

The vast majority of squibs have seen in CAS, come from folks loading 'fly-fart' level loads.

OLG 

 

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2 hours ago, Widder, SASS #59054 said:

I had a very reputable shooter tell me that he lost a big match because of a 

No Fire and the time it took to replace the dead round costed him the category win.

When he got home, he pulled the bullet, punched out the primer and discovered

there wasn't an anvil or mixture in the primer.   OUCH!

 

Being the way I am - I hand prime all brass. I also check each primer after it is loaded into the hand primer tool with a flashlight as they are anvil side up. To date I have found 3 faulty primers. 1 with no anvil and 2 with no compound. Just a bit overboard, but I do the best I can for the girls.

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What I can’t figure out is how a crusty old coot like Yusta B would up with such a sweet beautiful granddaughter. Impossible to calculate those odds! 

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3 hours ago, Widder, SASS #59054 said:

 

I've never actually kept any record or statistics, but it does seem the same to me.

 

When someone at a match gets a squib (No fire or very LOW powered round), they will

sometimes comment about their reloading press.

 

I do know of a couple occasions where it turned out to be a primer problem.

And I've actually been told by 2 shooters during the past 15 years that when they

pulled the bullet from a 'No Fire' round, a BUG was in their case/powder and had died

right over the flash hole.   In one of those, the person told me it was a Lady Bug.

 

I had a very reputable shooter tell me that he lost a big match because of a 

No Fire and the time it took to replace the dead round costed him the category win.

When he got home, he pulled the bullet, punched out the primer and discovered

there wasn't an anvil or mixture in the primer.   OUCH!

 

Stuff happens.

 

..........Widder

 

Now that’s a first for me. A bug in the round? Wow.
 

I don’t really keep a record either. Just a simple “do you load with a progressive press?” after a squib. If I were to try to be scientific about it and actually keep statistics, just one squib from a non progressive press would skew the percentages since by far most folks use a progressive press. 

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8 minutes ago, Hoss said:

What I can’t figure out is how a crusty old coot like Yusta B would up with such a sweet beautiful granddaughter. Impossible to calculate those odds! 

Opposites attract. :lol:

Yusta-do you lube your cases?

If so, how?

OLG 

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Several years ago at a small local match I had several squibs, SEVERAL!!, after I got home I checked the Dillon 550 I was using and found the little square white follower on the powder measure was gone. Found it on the bench broken.  I have had at least 1 Dillon  450 since about '83 or '84. Now have 4 550's and a Square Deal all set up in different calibers. I watch a lot closer now.

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1 hour ago, The Original Lumpy Gritz said:

Opposites attract. :lol:

Yusta-do you lube your cases?

If so, how?

OLG 

No sir - I use carbide dies and don't feel the need. Plus I use car wax in a dry media tumbler which might provide just a smidgen of lubrication.

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1 hour ago, Hoss said:

What I can’t figure out is how a crusty old coot like Yusta B would up with such a sweet beautiful granddaughter. Impossible to calculate those odds! 

 

HEY !! I resemble that remark.  :P

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On 2/22/2020 at 2:41 PM, Yusta B. said:

I'm thinkin too late - used up all the luck on the stage :wacko:

Your luck was in getting an astute. T. O. who realized he/she could allow you to reshoot (actually restart), and didn't, in the rush under a timer, incorrectly direct you to proceed with the next gun, per what the rules say.

 

Stage Conventions

" In the case of a suspected squib, the CRO/TO will instruct the shooter to make the firearm safe and continue with the next firearm"

 

This is actually a tight call.  One might argue that when the gun was cocked, the trigger pulled, the primer discharged and the projectile moved downrange (within the barrel), that a round actually "went downrange".  But I admit that I liked your outcome and the TO 's call much better.  

 

 

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5 hours ago, Texas John Ringo, SASS #10138 said:

Several years ago at a small local match I had several squibs, SEVERAL!!, after I got home I checked the Dillon 550 I was using and found the little square white follower on the powder measure was gone. Found it on the bench broken.  I have had at least 1 Dillon  450 since about '83 or '84. Now have 4 550's and a Square Deal all set up in different calibers. I watch a lot closer now.

Yes.  The bell crank cube it's called.  I had that fall out once and it's the result of not properly tightening the screw. I dumped all the loaded rounds in the hopper when that occurred. I keep a close watch on that now and have extras.

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26 minutes ago, Dusty Devil Dale said:

Your luck was in getting an astute. T. O. who realized he/she could allow you to reshoot (actually restart), and didn't, in the rush under a timer, incorrectly direct you to proceed with the next gun, per what the rules say.

In this case I would have proceeded as directed. At my finish of the stage I would have requested a reshoot.

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7 hours ago, The Original Lumpy Gritz said:

Equipment maintenance, can be the cause of a squib.

OLG 

Also, using primers that have been dropped on the floor can cause a no-fire situation.  At my bench, when a primer hits the floor, it goes immediately into the discard bin.   It is easier than we might think to dislodge the pellet, move the anvil out of position, or pick up debris.   For 1-1/2 cents, it just isn't worth risking a stage or match, particularly not for a family member who relys on your diligent loading.  

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im going to call it a great day of shooting with three generation participation , and i would be thanking every one for such an opportunity , it could happen - but ill not be holding my breath just yet , congrats on getting that much family involved at the same time in the same place , amen 

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