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Nate Kiowa Jones #6765

AMMO CONSPIRACY

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I found this on another forum. I left off his name so he doesn't catch it from the company.

 

 

As some of the folks on here know, I work at one of the ammo companies. I'm just one of the folks running machinery, not a policymaker. I've pretty much kept out of these threads on the several shooting forums I frequent, not only because my employer frowns on employees talking out of school, but because this has been such a touchy subject for some that seem completely convinced they're getting shafted by somebody.

Where I work, we've been on 12-hour shifts, the entire place running 24/7 for several years. You can't squeeze water from a stone and there just wasn't the ability to make many times the normal production capacity on short notice anywhere within the industry.

It's pure and simple overbuying for what the industry can provide.

Once the demand settles down again and things are back to normal, then's the time to (as they say on another forum I frequent) "buy it cheap and stack it deep".

 

 

Just like the Clinton and Carter era's before. Only this time, because it did pass in '94 a lot more people know it can happen again.

 

Be patient, this too shall pass.

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I believe it will pass too..... in time, but I also believe that there is some underhanded, dark reason that places like Homeland Security is buying more ammo than they need or can use. Those so called Hoarders (the American People at large) are indeed buying more ammo than they need, or can use... but there is a underlying reason that they are... THEY DON'T TRUST THE GOVERNMENT... What is the reason that the Government is buying up so much?... it must be because they don't trust the People! I Never would have believed this kind of stuff in the past, but this administration is the most untrustworthy and Un-American that I've ever seen... and we've had some real skunks in the White House!

 

Like the guy said... he is just a machine operator.. no doubt he is working hard at it, but he has no idea where the stuff goes.

 

Snakebite

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I think you can thank the POTUS for this ammo shortage. I figured it was coming and stocked up before the election, but it will return to normal probably by this time next year.

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ROA. Rather than investing in the long term performance of their respective company, many of the manufacturers are taking the low road with a focus toward short term financial goals and huge profits. Many of these executives rather rape the machinery and work trades people 12 hour days rather than hiring additional employees. Increase plant productivity, keep capital improvements and investments low and the result is an astronomical Return On Assets numbers. That’s a major component to the way most of these catbirds get their outrageous bonuses. My hope is that new AMMO manufacturers start up with newer and more modern equipment. Let the old brands fade away. I plan to support the new startups. We just all need to find out who and where they are located,

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Hell yea go out and buy up additional square footage, the latest greatest and fastest machines, hire a whole bunch of additional workers. 2014 elections and the republicans hold the house and 46 seats in the Senate when the dust settles. Ammo sales go in the tank, company goes bankrupt 2015 ammo shortage due to loss of manufactures is real, but no one will risk the capital investment to start an ammo plant.

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The fact that the manufacturers are not adding additional capacity tells me they don't think this shortage is permanent.

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ROA. Rather than investing in the long term performance of their respective company, many of the manufacturers are taking the low road with a focus toward short term financial goals and huge profits. Many of these executives rather rape the machinery and work trades people 12 hour days rather than hiring additional employees. Increase plant productivity, keep capital improvements and investments low and the result is an astronomical Return On Assets numbers. That’s a major component to the way most of these catbirds get their outrageous bonuses. My hope is that new AMMO manufacturers start up with newer and more modern equipment. Let the old brands fade away. I plan to support the new startups. We just all need to find out who and where they are located,

Ah yes, the old "Evil Corporate Executives"...they're to blame.

 

This lack of availability is temporary...so by all means, expand!

 

Oy...

 

Phantom

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Many small to mid-size companies are reluctant to add personnel due to the Obama health care law. They don't understand it and they are sitting back waiting to see how much this is going to cost them. Then there are union contracts to consider and the general uncertainty of how long this demand will last. If I was running wide open and making lots of money, why take the chance on expansion in a volatile economy / political environment.

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I like how people on this forum complain about the current leadership and turning America into a socialist Country. You know, where everyone shares equally and there is no class structure. And then you guys complain about the corporations abusing the worker and taking home big bonus's.

 

Basic economics 101 is about supply and demand. Big demand, limited supply, prices go up. As in gasoline!!!!!!

 

The poor workers are getting 1 1/2 times their salary so they are benefitting also. And they are getting paid based on the market, and nothing more.

 

The primary reasons for owning your own business is to be in control, and to make a profit. All businesses experience cyclical feast and famine economics. So they hire more people and buy more equipment to have it be under utilized a year from now! Unless your the Government or so called "non-profit" organization you are in business to make a profit, not break even, and not to share the profits equally with everyone.

 

And what is the "correct" amount of profit? 1% or 50%? and how do you define profit? Profit is needed to invest in new equipment otherwise you're out borrowing and impacting your companies value.

 

All I know is my company was making around 20% net/net profit 5 years ago and all of us owners got huge bonus's. Now we are breaking even, and taking salary cuts instead of laying off long term employees, and no bonus is in sight.

 

Get over owners taking bonus's. I don't see the workers borrowing money or putting their personal assets on the line when the company gets in trouble.

 

Ike, who understands what capitalism is about....and it sure isn't socialism.

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As a capitalist myself, I have to tell you Ike makes a good point. It is fun, however, to listen to people simultaneously bitch about both the government and big business taking advantage of the little guy. That only happens when the government is in the pocket of big business. If government is doing its job, it is either staying out of the way, or putting its fingers on the scales to help keep the playing field reasonably level. It is not being socialist when it is helping big business maximize profits.

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As a capitalist myself, I have to tell you Ike makes a good point. It is fun, however, to listen to people simultaneously bitch about both the government and big business taking advantage of the little guy. That only happens when the government is in the pocket of big business. If government is doing its job, it is either staying out of the way, or putting its fingers on the scales to help keep the playing field reasonably level. It is not being socialist when it is helping big business maximize profits

 

When government, as in the State of Wisconsin, decides to put a heavy hand on the scales and interfere with labor union activities that for years have been legal, then it sure seems like there is some "being in the pocket," though. :lol: Or when we have business (foreign owned, even) allowed the civil rights reserved by the Constitution for real people of the United States.

 

The pendulum swings both ways, and it is probably swung too far in a direction that is not helping the middle class right now.

 

Good luck, GJ

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If this discussion gets too political the moderators will close it - bear that in mind.

 

The present POTUS is, however, one of the best firearms salesman to ever appear in America. No doubt about it. Factor in his friends like Diane and Chuck and BOOM - demand expands exponentially for no reason. It will settle down.

 

Further, the issue of government ammunition purchases is way out of proportion to reality. Of course the DHS purchases vast quantities of ammunition. The DHS LEO alphabet soup includes the FBI (okay, maybe that's still the Justice Department but I bet DHS buys the ammo, anyway), DEA, TSA, ICE, USCG, FEMA, CBP, USSS. That's Drug Enforcement, Transportation Security, Immigration and Customs, Coast Guard, Emergency Management, Border Patrol, and Secret Service. All of those agencies have armed LEOs.

 

Cops use plenty of ammo - they are required to practice - and they have to have ammo stored - just like we do. Never mind the military use - when the US Armed Forces are not involved in wars they still suck up vast quantities of ammunition. Toss in some wars of any size and the ammo use goes up exponentially there, too.

 

Peace is not yet at hand but approaching. The gun control debate will, again, reach a dull roar. People will but what they need and not every round they see. And the ammo shortage will end.

 

***Nubbins***

 

PS:

 

But I do think kicking the unions in the arse in Wisconsin was excellent! Shhh....too political! :wacko:

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I guess the point is as large as the DHS contract is, and it is large, it is not that large in comparison with ordinary demands on the ammunition industry.

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I guess the point is as large as the DHS contract is, and it is large, it is not that large in comparison with ordinary demands on the ammunition industry.

 

 

I don't know if it's true but I have read where the DHS contract is no larger than any of their previous contracts.

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I don't know if it's true but I have read where the DHS contract is no larger than any of their previous contracts.

And it was an RFP -- nothing has shipped yet.

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When government, as in the State of Wisconsin, decides to put a heavy hand on the scales and interfere with labor union activities that for years have been legal, then it sure seems like there is some "being in the pocket," though. :lol: Or when we have business (foreign owned, even) allowed the civil rights reserved by the Constitution for real people of the United States.

 

The pendulum swings both ways, and it is probably swung too far in a direction that is not helping the middle class right now.

 

Good luck, GJ

 

Just wondering why you think you need help? Are you not satisfied with what you can acheive on your own?

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I haven't EVER been able to build a 30 megawatt hydroelectric power plant on my own. :(:lol:

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I haven't EVER been able to build a 30 megawatt hydroelectric power plant on my own. :(:lol:

 

I did, the beer for the liquid flow was too much for me to bear. :huh:

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...And what is the "correct" amount of profit? 1% or 50%? and how do you define profit? ...

 

Profit = How much interest your capital would earn in a "safe" bank account + plus the headackes + plus staying up late balancing the books + doing marketing + sales and design and....

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Exactly M.D. Along with knowledge and expertise that creates the business has a value beyond just showing up and doing your job.

Ike

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It ain't even close to being over yet.

 

There are a lot of folks like me who are waiting on the back log of orders to be filled and prices to drop so we can start buying in bulk and create another ammo shortage.

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Last week I bought 100 rds each of hornady 223 from Ammo To Go and 22 250 from Cabelas.None of the three large companies took advantage of the market. Both buys were at pre hoarding prices. The large companies are not the ones jacking prices. If any smaller company or person chooses to buy low and sell high its hard to blame them.If possible wait it out. This happens every demo positive election. Any body that has been shooting for any length of time knows this. I run an HVAC Co and choose not to hire and fire depending on work load. When its extra hot or cold we work longer days. When the work load backs off we back down to reg hours. If I were to hire for this short period and fire when the extra help was no longer needed I feel that would cause more harm than good. Yes the Co could make more money for that time but what if someone left another job to work with us only to be fired in a month. The ammo Cos know this is temperary and no major moves are needed.

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Supply and demand is an outdated concept, per your reference to oil as example. Oil price is down, supply is high and yet gasoline prices reaching record highs. Industry answer, inability to meet the demand due to refinery inability to keep up, one had to shut down for its annual clean-up or whatever other 'excuse for the day' they give with a smirk. Ask why not one penny of the decades of steadily increasing record breaking profits have not been used to build a new refinery or two, "because it would lower RECORD profits"! And no, we have laws in effect now that literally protected to many, like big oil, from free market competition until they became to big to compete against. A few of the old guys will remember when the big stink came out concerning entrepreneurs bidding against the big oil companies for Alaskan oil land leases. The federal government stepped in and blocked the few guys, seems there are some who have more right to the free market than others. It is now laughable when we point to the old laws of supply and demand to support prices when that went out the door with cartels and futures buying.

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Last week I bought 100 rds each of hornady 223 from Ammo To Go and 22 250 from Cabelas.None of the three large companies took advantage of the market. Both buys were at pre hoarding prices. The large companies are not the ones jacking prices. If any smaller company or person chooses to buy low and sell high its hard to blame them.If possible wait it out. This happens every demo positive election. Any body that has been shooting for any length of time knows this. I run an HVAC Co and choose not to hire and fire depending on work load. When its extra hot or cold we work longer days. When the work load backs off we back down to reg hours. If I were to hire for this short period and fire when the extra help was no longer needed I feel that would cause more harm than good. Yes the Co could make more money for that time but what if someone left another job to work with us only to be fired in a month. The ammo Cos know this is temperary and no major moves are needed.

Some of the large companies are taking advantage of this shortages. Check out Natches and Midway, also several others and see the differences in what they are charging for primers if the were in, or when they do come in. Just Remington primers, there a 6.00 difference between the 2, 38, and 44. dollars per 1000. Yes, they are also taking advantage. When shortage is over, I'll remember them. Gander when they get them in, was still 33.00 last week.

Everyone's on the bandwagon to make a buck from us. Now that ARs are back in supply, they're dropping in prices.

Advise to get price back to normal, don't panic, if you have a good supply for several months, hold off on the cut throat prices. They'll come down, and supply will come back and catch up with demand.

I know of one shooter that says he has over 100,000 primers, thats a lot of shooting, and he bought some at 50.00 to 60.00 a thousand. MT

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Remember , we went through this 4 years ago.... Wait a year and slowly build up at least a year's worth of components when the stuff is on sale.

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Supply and demand is an outdated concept, per your reference to oil as example. Oil price is down, supply is high and yet gasoline prices reaching record highs. Industry answer, inability to meet the demand due to refinery inability to keep up, one had to shut down for its annual clean-up or whatever other 'excuse for the day' they give with a smirk. Ask why not one penny of the decades of steadily increasing record breaking profits have not been used to build a new refinery or two, "because it would lower RECORD profits"! And no, we have laws in effect now that literally protected to many, like big oil, from free market competition until they became to big to compete against. A few of the old guys will remember when the big stink came out concerning entrepreneurs bidding against the big oil companies for Alaskan oil land leases. The federal government stepped in and blocked the few guys, seems there are some who have more right to the free market than others. It is now laughable when we point to the old laws of supply and demand to support prices when that went out the door with cartels and futures buying.

Wow! Glad you told me, I better let my AP Economics class know so they won't miss any questions on the exam. Now that I think of it, I better let the test writers know too so they'll stop expecting people to answer that way.

 

No money gets spent to build refineries cause Uncle Sam won't approve construction. Furthermore the government causes gas shortages due to the fact that so many states require specific fuel 'recipes'. Refineries have to run enough California fuel through the mix to meet the demand there. While they're doing that they probably aren't making their Colorado recipe (or pick the state of your choice), so you have limited supply. Before you criticize Big Oil for record profits you might want to consider the fact that the government makes more money from the sale of gasoline than the people who actually produce it do.

 

BTW, mentioning cartels undermines your position rather than supporting it. The whole point of a cartel is to collude and restrict supply, thereby driving up prices. Futures serve a useful purpose that is not at all at odds with the 'old laws of supply and demand'. Many companies purchase futures to ensure stable costs. For example airlines may purchase futures for jet fuel to ensure they're not vulnerable to price increases.

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When will folks ever realize corporations do not pay taxes at all. The cost of the tax is part of their cost of doing business and is rolled into the price of the products sold. We pay their taxes when we purchase the product.

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Again why do you all have issues with what you call record profits? They are in business to make themselves or their shareholders money. It's as simple as that. If your willing to pay $4.00/gallon of fuel, drive back and forth to work let's say 50 miles, and drive a vehicle that gets 20 mpg then you're supporting the increased demand and the increased cost driven by the market. Same with ammo.

 

We have closed or lost some refineries. There are fewer refineries today than 20 years ago. Ask yourself this....would you be willing to let them build a refinery next to your property? Whether big government is restricting this or not, tell me what city or port wants another refinery built. They stink and the are a huge explosion risk. This is like SASS and the neighbors. They don't want it in their backyard. And no one wants to be near a refinery.

 

If the market let's businesses raise their prices resulting in larger profits, more power to them. We have a choice. We don't have to buy ammo, and we certainly can modify our demand for fuel.

 

Southwest Airlines purchased 3 years worth of fuel. The prices went up and they didn't have to raise their ticket costs. And their competitors did. They captured more of the market and raised their prices slowly over time to meet the new cost of fuel. That's what buying futures does. No different than buying a winters worth of heating fuel at summer prices!!!

 

No matter how you look at it the basic element of supply and demand is driving all of this.

 

Ike

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Opinions is where many go wrong. A poorly thought out opinion, is far more dangerous than the actual truth. A statement by Ronald Reagan comes to mind. Not exactly what he said, but the idea is the same. So many people can see the problems and have opinions on how to solve them. The only thing is their proposed solutions are dead wrong. Won't work in the long run.

 

Free enterprise will correct things if given a chance. However as long as the Federal Government is doing all they can to stifle free enterprise, recovery of any kind will be very difficult if not impossible. The Government profile must change or we are all doomed

 

RBK

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But I do think kicking the unions in the arse in Wisconsin was excellent!

 

Me too - and in Michigan too recently ;)

 

GG ~ :FlagAm:

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And it was an RFP -- nothing has shipped yet.

To the contrary..It was delivered a while ago and the contract filled...it has only recently been reported and aggrandized,that the conversations started and the rumors started flowing, according to my sources

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To the contrary..It was delivered a while ago and the contract filled...it has only recently been reported and aggrandized,that the conversations started and the rumors started flowing, according to my sources

Can you back up this statement with facts. I am under the impression that the so called recent orders are basic ordering agreements, allowing the government to purchase ammo at a specific price now and in the future up to a max amount specified for several years. No where near the max amount speified has been ordered much less delivered and the contract filled??

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To the contrary..It was delivered a while ago and the contract filled...it has only recently been reported and aggrandized,that the conversations started and the rumors started flowing, according to my sources

Shorty -- quote is from the "Military Times, March 15, 2013--

"it’s important to understand that an RFQ (request for quote) or solicitation is not a purchase. When Infowars says something like “the Department of Homeland Security is planning to buy a further 750 million rounds of ammo in addition to the 450 million rounds of hollow point bullets already purchased earlier this year,” or “Following controversy over its purchase of around 1.2 billion bullets in the last six months alone, the Department of Homeland Security has put out a new solicitation for over 200 million more rounds of ammunition,” the reader is led to assume, naturally, that DHS has actually purchased that amount of ammunition. That is simply not the case. A solicitation is the equivalent of a want-to-buy ad on Craigslist, writ large. It’s not an actual purchase."

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Can you back up this statement with facts. I am under the impression that the so called recent orders are basic ordering agreements, allowing the government to purchase ammo at a specific price now and in the future up to a max amount specified for several years. No where near the max amount speified has been ordered much less delivered and the contract filled??

Only by the fact that I am a Class III FFL(and that's about the only fact!) and know a few people in the industry that know much more than i do...As explained to me, whatever part of that contract needed to be filled was.

But to answer your question, No, I can not give you proof.Just industry 'scuttlebutt' that likely as not has some basis in fact.But I can't say definitively

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