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Foard County News, SASS #77236

Reopening our sport. Covid Virus Degradation in Real World

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On Thursday at the White House press conference the Covid Task Force presented two charts on Covid virus degradation in real world environments. These definitely show that as summer approaches, particularly in the southern and desert states in the heat common to these areas is very detrimental to Covid remaining either in the air or on non-porous surfaces.

 

The two tables attached clearly show, and the experts at that Thursday news conference indicated environments that are hot and wet with plenty of sunlight are the environments most detrimental to Covid.

 

The table mentions half-life which is significant if you discuss this with people. It is very much the same as nuclear half-lives according to the experts at that news conference. That is to say if you start with 1,000 Covid virus particles on a 95 degree 80% humidy environment without sunlight on a non-porous surface (such as stainless steel) within one hour you would have 500 Covid particles. After 2 hours 250 Covid particles...3 hours 125 Covid particles.

 

It is also interesting that isopropyl alcohol, according to these same experts can kill Covid in 30 seconds even without mechanical action (wiping). Bleach, Lysol type products achieve similar  results in just a few minutes.

 

The other thing to consider are the studies reported from Stanford, USC and I think Cambridge(UK). These studies have suggested that there are many more cases of Covid than originally thought, with many of these being asymptomatic or mistaken for the flu. This could be interpreted as confirmation of Covid's morbidity, however, that would also show that mortality is greatly lower than presently reported. I believe Cambridge's study suggests mortality of 0.13% to 0.4% with the Stanford and USC belief that mortality will eventually prove out 0.13% mortality.

 

I think those numbers are probably valid when I look at the number of people at Walmarts, Lowes, and McDonald's.  Considering the possible under-reporting of Covid, using Stanford, USC, and Cambridges research, if Covid's mortality would result in a much higher death toll than we are currently observing.

 

We should start trying to understand how we can restart our sport under the current government edicts. I doubt social distancing did all that much especially if you went to a McDonald's or Walmart. Did you see them change gloves between transactions? Did you pay or receive cash?

 

We should also educate our participants about the problem with this government approach. Simply put, if you are worried or in a risk category, stay home.

 

However, I think another way to protect our sports are to start selling groceries. ;-}

 

 

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All very well and good.  Unless you're one of the .13 percentile.

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Posted (edited)

Or one of the 30 MILLION (updated from 25 million - 29 April ) who are unemployed and are losing their home and their way of life.

Edited by T-Square
update the increase in the unemployment numbers
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Thanks for the info: FCN.   

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Charts are helpful

Thanks!

 

CB

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Perhaps someone can start a thread listing matches that are going forward.  I am skeptical that my home club will be able to hold a match anytime soon because of the state within which it is located, and when it is allowed it will be with significant restrictions.   Count me in the crowd of believing that much of what we are witnessing is an over-reaction and unnecessary, at least in much of the country.   I'm certainly willing to travel, but need a mechanism to learn of the matches.   Could we do something along these lines here.

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We are still planning on holding Best Shoot by a Dam Site on the first weekend in June.

 

The only problem is our dumb Governor........ Can't tell what he is or is not going to do.

 

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Would love to head out your way.  Who knows . . . it's a bit of a  hike.

PK

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Yes, it would be awesome for someone to declare the first match, then "everyone" can come and shoot.

We could turn a 50 person club match into a 300 person celebration !

we are going to need some notice, because most of us will be driving !

im hearing Nevada. I'm going. Who needs a ride ?

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On 4/25/2020 at 8:42 AM, Colorado Coffinmaker said:

 

All very well and good.  Unless you're one of the .13 percentile.

OK shut down America for .13 % if your scared stay home! I'm 67 and my wife is 70 and two of my friends are same age group we have had it and we are still here, and we are not in perfect health  When are people going to get it this is politics! V.D.

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Sure.  Go tell the families of those whom have lost the fight they died from politics.

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Just be happy you can still wake up and smell the roses.

 

The world shut down because of US politics....ya right O.

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When I was overseas, 49 years ago, and on a patrol, we might have to hide out until an enemy patrol passed by, if, in that particular situation, we had no desire to confront them.  When they passed by, we always waited an extra amount of time, because, sure enough, there could likely be some stragglers coming up from behind.  That said, I learned a valuable lesson back then, that has stayed with me.  When a situation seems to be "all clear", you might want to wait a bit, before showing yourself...just to make extra sure. I've already been to one Covid-19 funeral (I had to remain in my Jeep the whole time). 

I ain't anxious to go to any more.  Savvy???   

Just sayin'.

 

My Two Bits.

W.K.

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If .2% death rate scares you - don't look up 

chance of living to age 65

chance of living to age 70

riding a donor cycle

riding horse 

Farming 

Chance of a major stroke - a pleasant way to spend your golden years

Major heart attack - just went to doctor - no high blood pressure - no diabetes - no cholesterol problems- not over weight etc. - 8% according to his little program

Since I am at risk for all of the above - what are my chances to make it through the summer.- May be my last year on earth do I spend it inside hiding? 

Worrying  about death is a terrible way to live especially when trying to live longer you make your life poorer  

Besides who says what they are doing is the right thing to do after all doctors only account for around 90,000 malpractice deaths a year

"The Institute of Medicine (IOM) has offered a more conservative estimate of 98,000 deaths per year due to medical negligence. A large percentage of these 250,000 annual fatalities would undoubtedly be actionable as medical malpractice."

 

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Posted (edited)
Quote

Covd19 virus:  0.3% of the population is infected.

Regular flu every year:   8.0% of the population gets infected.

.

.

 

 

Edited by gsp7

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But we don't shut the country down for the yearly flu.  I wonder what the infection rate would have been if we did nothing?

 

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45 minutes ago, Cheatin Charlie said:

But we don't shut the country down for the yearly flu.  I wonder what the infection rate would have been if we did nothing?

 

 

No one knows the infection rate now. When you only test symptomatic people all stats are incorrect and badly skewed to the negative. Its been here at least since mid-December and MILLIONS have had it. The only thing we're accomplishing by staying shut down is preventing herd immunity. 

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The last I read there was no herd immunity.  The experts cannot agree on if you had it and gotten better whether you could get it again or be a carrier again.  Seems like there is a lot of unknowns that won't be figured out for a while.  This is not the normal annual flu.

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The infection rate appears to be much higher as more testing comes online.  Total deaths from complications attributed to corona in the US is about 55,000.  Yes a bad flu year is about the same but we are only aboutna third of the way with many epidemiologists expectingna second wave later.

 

Of course I suppose you could ingest Lysol, after all sola doses facit venenum.

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Try not to forget, there is a vaccine for Flu that is about 80% effective.  This malady is NOT the Flu.  Attempting to compare the two is a FOOLS errand.  Try not to skew your statistics to support stupidity.

 

GSP7    If your going to stick your spoon in to stir the soup, you should join SASS and display your SASS number.  "Guest" ain't gonna cut it amigo. 

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40 minutes ago, Colorado Coffinmaker said:

 

Try not to forget, there is a vaccine for Flu that is about 80% effective.  This malady is NOT the Flu.  Attempting to compare the two is a FOOLS errand.  Try not to skew your statistics to support stupidity.

 

GSP7    If your going to stick your spoon in to stir the soup, you should join SASS and display your SASS number.  "Guest" ain't gonna cut it amigo. 

I don't understand why comparing Covid and the flu is bad.  Infection rate, death rate, those sorts of things can be compared.  That's why they have the ratios to begin with, so you can compare. 

Flu - R0 is about 1.3, mortality is about .1%

Covid RO is about 2.5*, mortality is about .1-.2%

 

So, you can compare them.  It looks like Covid is much more infectious, which makes sense due to the 'novel' part, and 'could be' twice as deadly as the flu.

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1 minute ago, Captain Bill Burt said:

I don't understand why comparing Covid and the flu is bad.  Infection rate, death rate, those sorts of things can be compared.  That's why they have the ratios to begin with, so you can compare. 

Flu - R0 is about 1.3, mortality is about .1%

Covid RO is about 2.5*, mortality is about .1-.2%

 

So, you can compare them.  It looks like Covid is much more infectious, which makes sense due to the 'novel' part, and 'could be' twice as deadly as the flu.

 

Or it could be 4* and half as deadly.

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Just now, Tyrel Cody said:

 

Or it could be 4* and half as deadly.

It could be, but these random studies in Stanford, LA, Florida, and NYC are all indicating much much higher infection rates than just those who have tested positive.  That leads to a much lower mortality rate.

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3 minutes ago, Captain Bill Burt said:

It could be, but these random studies in Stanford, LA, Florida, and NYC are all indicating much much higher infection rates than just those who have tested positive.  That leads to a much lower mortality rate.

Thats what I was getting at. 

 

I haven't ever stayed at a Holiday Inn Express, but I can read and there could potentially be 35-50% of the US that have had it; that'd make an awful low mortality rate.

 

Don't get me wrong, I don't want anyone to get it or die from it. I don't want it(assuming I haven't had it); but I also don't want flu, cancer, hit by lightning, to be shot, to be hit by a car, to be hit by a car by a drunk driver, and on and on. I think my wife had it in February and I can only surmise if she did, then I did and also anyone I shot with at Green River.

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On 4/25/2020 at 11:18 PM, T-Square said:

Yes, it would be awesome for someone to declare the first match, then "everyone" can come and shoot.

We could turn a 50 person club match into a 300 person celebration !

we are going to need some notice, because most of us will be driving !

im hearing Nevada. I'm going. Who needs a ride ?

ME .

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4 hours ago, Tyrel Cody said:

 

No one knows the infection rate now. When you only test symptomatic people all stats are incorrect and badly skewed to the negative. Its been here at least since mid-December and MILLIONS have had it. The only thing we're accomplishing by staying shut down is preventing herd immunity. 

Exactly, the shutdown is/was to prevent overloading health care capabilities which reduces deaths due to inability to treat overwhelming numbers of patients. Flattening the curve has been accomplished. No health care capability has been overwhelmed, even in the hardest hit areas of NY/NJ, Excess capacity now exists. Time to move on.

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I'm all for more outdoor recreational facilities like shooting ranges, golf courses and tennis courts re-opening.  However, I don't belittle the risk of the virus.  I just got a statement from a life insurance company who sells term life.  They increased their rates as follows:

 

60-64 yrs - 0%

65-69 yrs - 25.58%

70-74 yrs - 64.71%

75-79 yrs - 85.59%

 

Insurance company actuaries keep a close watch on death risk, so make informed choices.  I'm staying away from indoor crowds.  I'll avoid major CAS matches for awhile.  I'd feel pretty safe on a clays field.

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I am not buying into what the USA does or wants to do but some comparison figures for you.

 

Australia is 7% of the population of the USA.

 

7% of your covid death rate is 3920.

 

The current Australian number of deaths is 83 (2% of the 3920 figure)

 

We have gone hard on isolation, closing borders and shutting down a lot of the country (and yes it is hurting us and costing a lot- our Govt pays $1500 a fortnight to every employer to keep his staff- per staff member- as well as a payment around $1171 a fortnight to every person unemployed and not eligible for the 1500 amt)).  All of our States now are in single digit increases in new cases and a few have none for days at a time. One of our States tests about 5000 people a day (that's a high rate compared to most of the world) and the others are pretty high as well.

 

Sure we have some advantages- an island, but we still had plane loads of people coming in from overseas until we closed the borders. It was our summer but Singapore and other tropical nations have been hit hard to, and so on. The facts are we were climbing in cases, we hit the restrictions hard and now it is dropping quickly and we haven't had the deaths of any comparable Nation in the world (NZ and Aust are similar, did similar and have similar results). 

 

Again Aust and the USA are different and I am not saying what we did would work there or be possible, its just some facts for you to consider and compare.

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No new normal for me........it's all about Nov 2020. Yes it's real so were these. History tells us it has always happened and always will. This is the first time we tried to hide and crashed our economy so what's the bigger picture? There is a President exposing the left wing media and the Democrats and they can't get him to stop or get the people to turn on him.......that's the difference. Biden 2020 if he can remember he's not running for the Senate.......

 

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