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Trigger Mike

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I told my mom about my son testing positive for the china virus.   She told my siblings.   I had told my mom he only had a fever of 100.5 for an hour on 2 different days and a sore throat and got tired really quickly but is all better now.   I told her his doctor and mine said since the rest of us have not shown symptoms we likely won't get it.   I told her my doctor said we likely already have antibodies that fought it off and have immunity. 

 

My siblings are the kind that won't leave the house,  fear the virus,  might die instantly and hate the president with a purple passion. 

My siblings are telling my mom we don't have immunity,  my doc is wrong, need to stay home beyond the day the doctor set, are contagious from now on.   They even added my son's health will be scarred for life and still might die.  My son never missed a day of doing his chores, worked on his 4 wheeler axle today and is doing fine.  

 

It seems folks have carried this thing too far.  Yes it is here and some folks get sick, but even the cdc says you are immune after getting it and a new study in Iceland says it may last over 4 months.   How come the people who says you should believe doctors and scientists don't want me to believe my son's doctor and my doctor?  Another article on cnbc recently said some areas already have herd immunity.   At some point we have to live and take our chances. 

 

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Yep, I've had a few people get angry with me for calling most of the media's reporting on the virus panic porn. Don't get me wrong, I think it's serious and people should take precautions when indicated. Heck I'm high risk given my health and age, but I gotta work and I work in hospital ER's and ICU's where there are active Covid patients. I take normal precautions, mask, wash hands, etc....but what ya gonna do, worry yourself sick or do what you reasonably can and live your life. If I expected to live forever probably wouldn't have a motorcycle or eat a BLT. And the facts are that the virus is less dangerous for kids and young people through their mid twenties even thirties than the regular flu. But some people as you know just don't want to listen or learn, they hear one case of a young person or child dying and it's every young one at risk. Heck I read that some people think that 10 percent of the population have died from the virus, when it's .06% or six hundreths of one percent. But you can't reason with people in the grips of irrational fear or hatred for that matter. 

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Oh, the CDC said. Well, well, well I'll get right on it

Is this the same CDC that recently revised their death numbers, that something like 90+ percent of the death numbers shouldn't have been covid because those people had co-morbidities and died from that not the other stuff? Only six percent of the reported 130k-something deaths were actually covid.....

 

The same CDC that's also saying our test is too sensitive and up to 90 percent were false positives? That CDC? LOL

 

Right there with ya guys, I do believe we've been played. Some people are bound to have their hind parts chapped because they don't like to look foolish.....so they just keep up the "appearance". Geez.

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45 minutes ago, Dubious Don #56333 said:

Oh, the CDC said. Well, well, well I'll get right on it

Is this the same CDC that recently revised their death numbers, that something like 90+ percent of the death numbers shouldn't have been covid because those people had co-morbidities and died from that not the other stuff? Only six percent of the reported 130k-something deaths were actually covid.....

 

The same CDC that's also saying our test is too sensitive and up to 90 percent were false positives? That CDC? LOL

 

Right there with ya guys, I do believe we've been played. Some people are bound to have their hind parts chapped because they don't like to look foolish.....so they just keep up the "appearance". Geez.

It was the news media that miss informed the public about the CDC press release.  The headlines were totally miss leading.  If you read down in the column to learn that only 6% of the recorded Covid deaths had no comorbidities.  And the average was 2 1/2 comorbidities.

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Dubious Don, can you quote sources for your "90% false positives?"  Or your other numbers? 

 

And by the way... that "co-morbidity" argument doesn't have legs.  Many, many who've died indeed have "underlying issues."  Most have lived with them for years; many, if not most, could have continued to live with them for many more years.  And a lot of us have issues that would put us at grave risk if we become infected.

 

Now, y'all do whatever ya want.  But don't forget... some folk who are affected very little or not at all can unintentionally but very easily pass it on.  I think it's a pretty fair call that most of the folks who've died or are suffering long-term issues were infected by folks who really didn't intend to.

 

We're on track to exceed a quarter million people dead in the U. S. by the end of the year.  That's a LOT of people.  

 

On a personal level, I know a few who've had it and survived.  One old friend said that if he ever gets that or anything like it again he wants someone to just shoot him.  One of our Scout's dad died of it last week.  Yeah, he had "underlying issues."  He'd still be here if it had not been for Covid.  My "niece" is an ICU nurse in a Covid ward; in one day about three weeks ago she had eleven patients die.  One of whom caught it in the ER, when he came in for an injury.  Nowhere near New York City levels, but still significant.

 

Raylan's .06% of the total population having died is about right.  But to date, the death to reported infection ratio is more like 3%; even with the improved treatments we're still seeing about 2% in California.  The first few weeks one out of 16 who contracted it died. 

 

Check here for up-to-date numbers:  https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 

Small percentages?  Maybe.  But compare this to the H1N1 "pandemic" of '09.  Sixty-five to 80 million Americans caught it; about 12,500 died.  Comparatively, out of maybe 1/10th as many cases, 15 times as many people have died of Covid.

 

But here are a couple of "random" perspectives:

 

If you took all the people who've died in the U S of Covid to date and laid them out along a highway, you'd have to drive about two hundred miles before you passed them all.

 

Like to fly?  When's the last time an airliner crashed in the U S?  Makes headlines in a big way.  Well... the Covid deaths - not all victims; just those who died - would be roughly the equivalent of six full Boeing 737's going down with total loss of life... every day for the last six months.  Wanna go flying?  Heck... even these days, there are still about 6,000 flights every day in the U. S. ~ the odds would be in your favor.  

 

"Nutty?"  Maybe.  Inconvenient?  You bet.  Frustrating?  Oh, hell yeah!  But frankly, it's not the disseminated data that "chaps my hindquarters;" it's people with cavalier attitudes. 

 

Not taking this thing seriously can - and will - kill people.

 

I hope I don't sound too foolish here... but good luck out there.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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It is real and it is something to take seriously. It is however not the end of the world, our nation and our world have lived through far worse pandemics. Currently per the CDC estimates the lethality rate for this virus is between .3 percent and .2 percent or about 2 to 3 deaths out of every thousand that are infected. 

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Raylan, can you post a link to those CDC numbers?

 

I found this on the CDC site... but it's not clear, as it seems to lump COVID with non-covid pneumonia and influenza - which are usually not prevalent this time of year.

 

Quote

 

Mortality

Based on death certificate data, the percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia, influenza, or COVID-19 (PIC) for week 34 is 7.9%. This is currently lower than the percentage during week 33 (12.3%); however, the percentage remains above the epidemic threshold and will likely increase as more death certificates are processed.

 

 

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I'm not necessarily in the high risk category but I would really rather not catch it.  My wife would lock me in the basement for a month and occasionally throw food down the stairs.  We don't eat out or do much traveling.   Kinda took some of the fun out of retirement.  I have high hopes for a vaccine. 

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3 hours ago, Hardpan Curmudgeon SASS #8967 said:

Dubious Don, can you quote sources for your "90% false positives?"  Or your other numbers? 

 

And by the way... that "co-morbidity" argument doesn't have legs.  Many, many who've died indeed have "underlying issues."  Most have lived with them for years; many, if not most, could have continued to live with them for many more years.  And a lot of us have issues that would put us at grave risk if we become infected.

 

Now, y'all do whatever ya want.  But don't forget... some folk who are affected very little or not at all can unintentionally but very easily pass it on.  I think it's a pretty fair call that most of the folks who've died or are suffering long-term issues were infected by folks who really didn't intend to.

 

We're on track to exceed a quarter million people dead in the U. S. by the end of the year.  That's a LOT of people.  

 

On a personal level, I know a few who've had it and survived.  One old friend said that if he ever gets that or anything like it again he wants someone to just shoot him.  One of our Scout's dad died of it last week.  Yeah, he had "underlying issues."  He'd still be here if it had not been for Covid.  My "niece" is an ICU nurse in a Covid ward; in one day about three weeks ago she had eleven patients die.  One of whom caught it in the ER, when he came in for an injury.  Nowhere near New York City levels, but still significant.

 

Raylan's .06% of the total population having died is about right.  But to date, the death to reported infection ratio is more like 3%; even with the improved treatments we're still seeing about 2% in California.  The first few weeks one out of 16 who contracted it died. 

 

Check here for up-to-date numbers:  https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 

Small percentages?  Maybe.  But compare this to the H1N1 "pandemic" of '09.  Sixty-five to 80 million Americans caught it; about 12,500 died.  Comparatively, out of maybe 1/10th as many cases, 15 times as many people have died of Covid.

 

But here are a couple of "random" perspectives:

 

If you took all the people who've died in the U S of Covid to date and laid them out along a highway, you'd have to drive about two hundred miles before you passed them all.

 

Like to fly?  When's the last time an airliner crashed in the U S?  Makes headlines in a big way.  Well... the Covid deaths - not all victims; just those who died - would be roughly the equivalent of six full Boeing 737's going down with total loss of life... every day for the last six months.  Wanna go flying?  Heck... even these days, there are still about 6,000 flights every day in the U. S. ~ the odds would be in your favor.  

 

"Nutty?"  Maybe.  Inconvenient?  You bet.  Frustrating?  Oh, hell yeah!  But frankly, it's not the disseminated data that "chaps my hindquarters;" it's people with cavalier attitudes. 

 

Not taking this thing seriously can - and will - kill people.

 

I hope I don't sound too foolish here... but good luck out there.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The false positive 90 percent story was New York Times dated 08/29/2020 titled "Your coronavirus test is positive. Maybe it shouldn't be." Of course it is the Times.....

 

The other story that referenced they (the CDC) revised their numbers for the week prior (to 08/30) 153,504 because only six percent of those actually died from covid rather than the other issues those folks had was in several places,  247sports still shows on the first page of google but breitbart, gateway pundit and the others do not. The page CDC had that table I had bookmarked and now that's not active. Imagine that. And when you search google you get those "fact-checker sites about this article and NPR, other news sites I have no use for because...you can guess why LOL. 

 

I already caught my State (AZ) cooking the books. Of course the states get paid by the feds. Why do you think they test-test-test and code as many patients/deaths they can as covid? Ever wonder why the news only reports total cases and deaths? They report NONE of the other metrics. I certainly don't appreciate my own government, on several levels I might add, fail to provide complete, accurate and timely information. None of this should be political but sadly, it sure seems to be. And you sure can't rely on ANY of the media to pass on accurate information. Bottom line is, you take precautions and hope for the best. Its a respiratory virus, not the krakken from the crab nebula. 

 

I'm glad you're taking it seriously Hardpan. I do too as a matter of fact and I have several in my family who are not only "at risk" but some are first responders risking their lives EVERY DAY. So kindly keep your cavalier comments to yourself, my friend. Fair enough?

 

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"In May, the CDC published a document titled "Pandemic Planning Scenarios," with estimates about the virus to help modelers and public health officials. It included estimates of the death rate for infected people who show symptoms and of the percentage of people who were infected but asymptomatic.

The CDC document stressed the values are estimates, not predictions of the effects of the virus, and don't reflect the impact of changes in behavior or social distancing. 

"New data on COVID-19 is available daily," the document said. "Information about its biological and epidemiological characteristics remain limited, and uncertainty remains around nearly all parameter values." 

The document includes five scenarios. The first four are varying estimates of the disease's severity, from low to high, while the fifth represents the "current best estimate."

The range of estimates put the fatality rate for those showing symptoms between 0.2%-1%, with a "best estimate" of 0.4%.

It also places the number of asymptomatic cases between 20%-50%, with a "best estimate" of 35%. 

By combining the two estimates, the estimated overall fatality rate of those infected with the virus – with and without symptoms – would be 0.26%."

 

From the first story I found from USA Today headlined - Fact check: CDC's estimates COVID-19 death rate around 0.26%, doesn't confirm it

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/06/05/fact-check-cdc-estimates-covid-19-death-rate-0-26/5269331002/

 

Essentially if one reads it all it says were it isn't "confirmed" and some disagree, but bottom line is that all figures are just that estimates and the CDC's estimate is .26 percent - which works out between 2 to 3 deaths per thousand or 2.6 deaths per thousand.

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It seems to me that people  were a lot smarter before the Information Highway came to be. 

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All I know is that this is the smartest virus I've ever seen.  According to the media going to a beach or motorcycle rally will spread the virus, but if you openly protest, burn buildings and loot business's it won't.  

COVID is real no doubt but so is the flu, take precautions, wash your hands, if someone is sick stay away from them, and use common sense.  COVID can kill, but so can the flu.

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I’m 62 and one of my female high school classmates contracted it.  She has since recovered, but said she felt like she was in a constant state of near suffocation.

 

i had a work colleague who was 65.  We were in NY on assignment from mid-February to early March.  We worked together, but he contracted the disease and passed away after we returned home.

 

I was quarantined from the office for 2 weeks, but I never showed symptoms.  As the CDC  says, if your 65 and older, you’re in. The higher risk category.

 

it seems like it’s not that risky for children, with certain exceptions.

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People get upset with me when I point out in 2009 it took Obama 6 months to declare H1N1 a pandemic and we didnt shut the country down, some schools closed, but it was all on a local level. In 2020 it took Trump about a month do do so and he took action pretty much immediately. 

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I will state at the beginning, COVID is very serious.  I have a sister who is a nurse and is rabid about masks, hand washing, social distancing but she has always been on the far end of the pendulum swing.  I have a SIL that works in the COVID ICU.  He and I had a good talk about this.  He agrees with me, to a point and my point is that the medical community is in, short of an all out panic, because they do not have a defined medical procedure or process for handing COVID.  Many people die from cancer(s) but we have prescribed treatment processes for that so it passes.  We have many people die from heart disease but we have treatment processes for that so it too passes.  Many people die from diabetes, hyper tension, malaria, measles, small pox, chicken pox, scarlet fever, influenza, H1N1, swine flu, bird flu, SARS, MERSA, AIDS but we have treatment processes for those.  Once there is an accepted medical treatment plan for COVID, then all the hype will go away.  I predict shortly after the election.  People will still die from it but now we have a treatment process so it is what it is.  COVID is still serious but we have plan of treatment.  The medical community scurries around like cock roaches because they all are experts, with strong opinions and all want to be right.  They are shooting at a moving target and need to get their facts before they open their mouths.  Then the reporting agencies, federal, state and independent are all massaging the statistics to get the message to fit their narrative, you don't know what or who to believe.

 

I still want to see a more in depth investigation into how all of this got started and I don't believe it came from a bat in a meat market.  And why do all of these weird diseases seem to originate in China?  Maybe they should quit eating everything but the squawk, oink, bark or howl and this could stop.  As my SIL says, if they would quit eating the pucker hole from every known animal, maybe they wouldn't get sick.

 

In the meantime, I stay away from people, which isn't that hard for me to do.  I subscribe to Linus's (from Peanuts) philosophy, I"I love mankind, it's people I can't stand".  So I wear my mask in public to keep the crazies, sister included, from harassing me.  I'm afraid I might go cowboy on them and ride them for 8 seconds.

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I'm noticing that the health professionals down in South Georgia have Dailed the fear back a good bit.  Initially they had the far left attitude we were all going to die and die alone and spread fear to everyone. 

Once my son got sick I noticed how unconcerned different Dr's had become and both said that there is no treatment,  just keep the fever down below 101.  A nurse went from changing her clothes outside before seeing her family now said even though we were in quarantine to come see her to buy a $40 calculator from her that quarantine didn't matter, she would be fine and even had my wife go inside and see her baby.  

 

I just know that when I take care of my son, I forgot about the mask and God has protected me and the rest of us from it.  I really wonder if not wearing the mask in town has actually given me a chance to build antibodies and if so, we are all better off leaving the mask at home.  

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15 hours ago, Raylan said:

"In May, the CDC published a document titled "Pandemic Planning Scenarios," with estimates about the virus to help modelers and public health officials. It included estimates of the death rate for infected people who show symptoms and of the percentage of people who were infected but asymptomatic.

The CDC document stressed the values are estimates, not predictions of the effects of the virus, and don't reflect the impact of changes in behavior or social distancing. 

"New data on COVID-19 is available daily," the document said. "Information about its biological and epidemiological characteristics remain limited, and uncertainty remains around nearly all parameter values." 

The document includes five scenarios. The first four are varying estimates of the disease's severity, from low to high, while the fifth represents the "current best estimate."

The range of estimates put the fatality rate for those showing symptoms between 0.2%-1%, with a "best estimate" of 0.4%.

It also places the number of asymptomatic cases between 20%-50%, with a "best estimate" of 35%. 

By combining the two estimates, the estimated overall fatality rate of those infected with the virus – with and without symptoms – would be 0.26%."

 

From the first story I found from USA Today headlined - Fact check: CDC's estimates COVID-19 death rate around 0.26%, doesn't confirm it

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/06/05/fact-check-cdc-estimates-covid-19-death-rate-0-26/5269331002/

 

Essentially if one reads it all it says were it isn't "confirmed" and some disagree, but bottom line is that all figures are just that estimates and the CDC's estimate is .26 percent - which works out between 2 to 3 deaths per thousand or 2.6 deaths per thousand.

My healthcare analytics team who has been studying, reverse-engineering and refining these models and numbers since March.  Many of the models the media have been touting are built on unsound methodologies.  0.26% is in line with our "most likely" scenario and that rate hasn't changed for several months in our best models.  Keep in mind that 0.2% is the average death rate for any influenza and over the last decade that rate has been slowly increasing, not because influenza is becoming more deadly, but because the US has rising comorbidity issues.  COVID-19 is real and, like any coronavirus, definitely dangerous for certain populations, but thankfully it's much less lethal than the Spanish Flu which had a 0.5% mortality rate in the US.  That rate difference may not look meaningful, but consider that indicates a death rate that is 2.5 times that of the average flu and double that of COVID-19.  Be safe, but keep the risk in perspective.

 

And interestingly, we've had several team members under age 60 who have been totally asymptomatic yet receive positive results on the COVID-19 antibody test.  It's quite likely that immunity is building in the country among the healthy.  That's a good thing that will help check the virus' spread.

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my question is - when did science and medicine become a case of public consensus ? seems everyone that know nothing have all the answers and seem to want to jamb it down your throat as gospel ......heck , even gospel has been left to those that know nothing of it these days  

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19 hours ago, Trigger Mike said:

I'm noticing that the health professionals down in South Georgia have Dailed the fear back a good bit.  Initially they had the far left attitude we were all going to die and die alone and spread fear to everyone. 

Once my son got sick I noticed how unconcerned different Dr's had become and both said that there is no treatment,  just keep the fever down below 101.  A nurse went from changing her clothes outside before seeing her family now said even though we were in quarantine to come see her to buy a $40 calculator from her that quarantine didn't matter, she would be fine and even had my wife go inside and see her baby.  

 

I just know that when I take care of my son, I forgot about the mask and God has protected me and the rest of us from it.  I really wonder if not wearing the mask in town has actually given me a chance to build antibodies and if so, we are all better off leaving the mask at home.  

Once again, if you are wearing a mask you are not protected unless is is an N95 mask. So not wearing a mask town has Not prevented you from catching it. It’s a crap shoot.

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I figured not wearing a mask helped me build immunity.   It also gave me less crowds as whenever I went to the grocery store and went down the aisle and someone else was already there with a mask, they often sped down to another aisle.  

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So

33 minutes ago, Trigger Mike said:

I figured not wearing a mask helped me build immunity.   It also gave me less crowds as whenever I went to the grocery store and went down the aisle and someone else was already there with a mask, they often sped down to another aisle.  

 

So... the medical experts have been saying for some time that the most effective aspect of wearing a mask was to reduce the spread of the virus by those who may have it.  In other words, a mask is most effective when worn by a person with the virus.

 

You've said that members of your household have tested positive.  You have been exposed.

 

Many people are non-symtomatic.  You could be one of those.

 

And you're proudly stating that you go about in public, in perhaps crowded places, and refuse to wear a mask?  And make light of people trying to avoid you?

 

My God.  

 

 

 

 

 

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yes because around here even now we are below 1000 total sick the entire year and only 7 deaths total.  I don't worry about 7 deaths over a year's time from a sickness.  I prefer immunity.  If someone is worried, and wants to wear a mask, I am all for it.  If someone is not worried and does not want to wear a mask, then I am for that as well.  Meanwhile my doctor tells me that I am immune to it based on my health and age I should have gotten it and been hospitalized by now if I wasn't immune.  My son got it and had minor sore throat and 100.5 fever for an hour on 2 different days with no medication.  He was really tired for a few days and is already back to running around.  He still had the energy to do his chores each day.  We didn't have to wear a mask for the swine flu or other recent ailments.  If I lived in a big city I might do things differently but here in a small town where most do not wear a mask and are doing fine, it was not needed.  the experts based their view on the most populous location.  Blanket directives are not based on local reality.

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we were told - a few months ago - we needed to s;ow the spread to preserve the hospital space , we are six months in and they are still telling us this crap and the hospitals are empty and one the public dole claiming every death is covid related , when is enough ENOUGH ? 

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1 hour ago, watab kid said:

we were told - a few months ago - we needed to s;ow the spread to preserve the hospital space , we are six months in and they are still telling us this crap and the hospitals are empty and one the public dole claiming every death is covid related , when is enough ENOUGH ? 

The day after the election.  Then they'll start with something else.

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Once Again, a mask does not protect you. It will help prevent the spread if You are infected. The Japanese have been using masks effectively during flu season for years.

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On 9/4/2020 at 3:47 PM, Ozark Shark said:

 ... had several team members under age 60 who have been totally asymptomatic yet receive positive results on the COVID-19 antibody test.  It's quite likely that immunity is building in the country among the healthy.  That's a good thing that will help check the virus' spread.

Immunity is building, sort of. In my county, we now have about 2% of the population which tested positive for Sass-CoV-2 since March. That is the PCR test which indicates an infection. That test is specific to the virus of concern. But, estimates are only 10% of all cases are detected so the actual immunity (infection) rate is likely now 20%. A long way from herd immunity.

 

There are two other concerns with the current spread... First, immunity may only last months and not be complete; This might be why there are so many reports of asymptomatic case, these may be re-infections (weak immunity). Second, the virus is mutating and there are already at least a half dozen variants. Multiple strains may be another cause of asymptomatic cases (partial immunity). 

 

As to the antibody test, the PCR test does detect this virus (likely only this virus), the antibody test finds immunity to this virus, and HKU1, and NL63, and at least two other common coronaviruses. For you and me and your friends as individuals, a positive test result is therefore pretty much worthless! The only value is at the population level, if 1,000 people are tested each month for antibodies and we see a steady increase in positive results, then we know there is a steady increase in recovered cases. But some number of us including you and me may have had one of the other viruses at some point in the past, possibly a long time ago. So we will test positive without ever having had ran infection of this virus.

 

I tried to find a test for immunity to the other four viruses and only those four so I could find out if I might be clear in the CoViD zone. No such luck. The tests for the other viruses are the CoViD antibody tests; the existing tests also give positive results for this new virus. My hope was that if I tested positive on a CoViD antibody test and negative for the other viruses on another test, then I would have a good answer. Positive on both tests would be worthless info, and negative on both would mean I need to still be cautious. Since there is no test or combination of tests capable of doing this, the only thing I learned was to not waste money on an antibody test at all.

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