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Match Directors: What's your take on COVID 19?

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10 hours ago, Dusty Devil Dale said:

Given those newly described  circumstances, I would agree with you.  But unfortunately your earlier post encourages others to make their own choices, without all those qualifiers.  And not all of those people have the control that you described here.  

Best of health to you. 

And I apologize, Capt, for jumping to premature conclusions.  

I accept your apology. Thank you.

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One thing we do know for sure is that six months from now we will know whether or not we should have continued gathering together at matches.  We ought to make a date with ourselves to revisit this thread at that time, at least those of us who are still able.  

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26 minutes ago, Dusty Devil Dale said:

One thing we do know for sure is that six months from now we will know whether or not we should have continued gathering together at matches.  We ought to make a date with ourselves to revisit this thread at that time, at least those of us who are still able.  

Not really. If it gets bad, we’ll know that we shouldn’t have (if we indeed did). If everything settles down quickly and it seems like it was all overhyped, it very well may be the over hyping is what kept it from getting bad. 

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27 minutes ago, Dusty Devil Dale said:

One thing we do know for sure is that six months from now we will know whether or not we should have continued gathering together at matches.  We ought to make a date with ourselves to revisit this thread at that time, at least those of us who are still able.  

It's not getting better.  We're up to 99 cases in Georgia.  I expect to see those numbers start doubling every one 

 to three days for a while.  I think our 'clear' day will be next Sunday or Monday.  If none of us have symptoms by then we probably don't have it.

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5 minutes ago, El Hombre Sin Nombre said:

Not really. If it gets bad, we’ll know that we shouldn’t have (if we indeed did). If everything settles down quickly and it seems like it was all overhyped, it very well may be the over hyping is what kept it from getting bad. 

I don't think we'll ever know.  There are too many variables.  My main exposure last week certainly wasn't the match, it was my three children in school and my wife who is a school teacher.  They're the only people I was exposed to in close quarters and the three who had plenty of exposure to other people.   We could start a morbid pool though.  With GA currently at 99 I predict 6,000 GA cases by next Sunday.

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We'll never know the actual number of cases nor a true mortality rate because of the number of mild to moderate cases that don't get tested. 

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13 minutes ago, Allie Mo, SASS No. 25217 said:

I read that this morning.  Newt is pretty steady.  Definitely worth reading. 

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Just saw the new draconian measures being enforced (close all bars & wineries, etc) by the CA governor, including (highly recommended) that everyone over age 65 stay home in self-imposed quarantine. How's that gonna affect next weeks, & next month's local matches? Curious.

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1 hour ago, Captain Bill Burt said:

It's not getting better.  We're up to 99 cases in Georgia.  I expect to see those numbers start doubling every one 

 to three days for a while.  I think our 'clear' day will be next Sunday or Monday.  If none of us have symptoms by then we probably don't have it.

Prayers up! 

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Posted (edited)
46 minutes ago, Don Coyote, SASS #63736 said:

Just saw the new draconian measures being enforced (close all bars & wineries, etc) by the CA governor, including (highly recommended) that everyone over age 65 stay home in self-imposed quarantine. How's that gonna affect next weeks, & next month's local matches? Curious.

As yet, it isn't a legally enforceable order or regulation.  But it could quickly become that.  Some counties will very likely follow with ordinances and enforcement.  

 

I just read that the CDC has made new and tighter recommendations, summarized below. 

 

Large events and mass gatherings can contribute to the spread of COVID-19 in the United States via travelers who attend these events and introduce the virus to new communities. Examples of large events and mass gatherings include conferences, festivals, parades, concerts, sporting events, weddings, and other types of assemblies. These events can be planned not only by organizations and communities but also by individuals.

Therefore, CDC, in accordance with its guidance for large events and mass gatherings, recommends that for the next 8 weeks, organizers (whether groups or individuals) cancel or postpone in-person events that consist of 50 people or more throughout the United States.

Events of any size should only be continued if they can be carried out with adherence to guidelines for protecting vulnerable populationshand hygiene, and social distancing.  When feasible, organizers could modify events to be virtual.

This recommendation does not apply to the day to day operation of organizations such as schools, institutes of higher learning, or businesses. This recommendation is made in an attempt to reduce introduction of the virus into new communities and to slow the spread of infection in communities already affected by the virus.  This recommendation is not intended to supersede the advice of local public health officials.

 

Here is the link.  I recommend you read the full article. 

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/16/cdc-recommends-the-cancellation-of-events-with-50-or-more-people-for-the-next-eight-weeks-throughout-us.html

Edited by Dusty Devil Dale

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9 minutes ago, Dusty Devil Dale said:

As yet, it isn't a legally enforceable order or regulation.  But it could quickly become that.  Some counties will very likely follow with ordinances and enforcement.  

 

I just read that the CDC has made new and tighter recommendations, summarized below. 

 

Large events and mass gatherings can contribute to the spread of COVID-19 in the United States via travelers who attend these events and introduce the virus to new communities. Examples of large events and mass gatherings include conferences, festivals, parades, concerts, sporting events, weddings, and other types of assemblies. These events can be planned not only by organizations and communities but also by individuals.

Therefore, CDC, in accordance with its guidance for large events and mass gatherings, recommends that for the next 8 weeks, organizers (whether groups or individuals) cancel or postpone in-person events that consist of 50 people or more throughout the United States.

Events of any size should only be continued if they can be carried out with adherence to guidelines for protecting vulnerable populationshand hygiene, and social distancing.  When feasible, organizers could modify events to be virtual.

This recommendation does not apply to the day to day operation of organizations such as schools, institutes of higher learning, or businesses. This recommendation is made in an attempt to reduce introduction of the virus into new communities and to slow the spread of infection in communities already affected by the virus.  This recommendation is not intended to supersede the advice of local public health officials.

 

Here is the link.  I recommend you read the full article. 

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/16/cdc-recommends-the-cancellation-of-events-with-50-or-more-people-for-the-next-eight-weeks-throughout-us.html

Thanks for the link. What I'm talking about are local monthly matches with 20-35 shooters, all ages but most 65+. No cases in our rural county yet but that will change as more folks get symptoms, tested etc. We trust our members would stay home if they have any sign of illness, even common cold. So far no such inference as to restricting interaction just based on age in our state. Just a note, our daughter & family live in Kirkland, WA & as of Friday their schools were still open. Probably has changed by now.

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Posted (edited)
50 minutes ago, Dusty Devil Dale said:

Prayers up! 

Thanks,  

 

I'm not sweating it. I've always been a numbers guy.  I looked at what the number of cases in Italy and Washington are doing.

 

On 2/22 Italy had 75 diagnosed cases.  14 days later they had 5,061.  That's where I came up with going from 99 today to 6,000 in two weeks in Georgia.   

 

If we assume all those new cases were people who were infected and didn't show symptoms for 14 days then that would mean that on February 22 when Italy had 75 identified cases, there were roughly 5,000 unidentified cases.  This is a pessimistic assumption given that some people likely contracted the virus after 2/22, but displayed symptoms in less than 14 days.  

 

For Georgia that means that today there are roughly 6,000 people who are infected and will have strong enough symptoms to seek a diagnosis while only 99 have been identified.  I know these are very very rough estimations, but they're a starting place and again it's a pessimistic assumption the  actual number is probably lower.   

 

If we assume there are 4 mild undiagnosed cases for every diagnosed case (which comports with what the CDC is saying about severity - roughly 80% are mild) then that means that today there are roughly 24,000 people in Georgia with Covid-19.  I think that number is probably too big, but I'm being pessimistic so bear with me.

 

Given that the metro Atlanta area is where most of the cases are and has a population of right at 6 million people, that means the probability that at least one of my family has the virus are about 24,000/6,000,000 times 5, or 2%.  I think the probability is probably less than 1% - if I'm not assuming the worst. 

 

Now to be truly spooky.  In Italy, a week after the number of diagnosed cases was 5,061, it more than tripled to just over 17,000 diagnosed cases (3/14).  Increased infection or more widespread testing, or both?

 

On March 2nd Washington had 18 diagnosed cases.  Two weeks later they have 769.  That growth rate is pretty comparable to Italy's over the same infection time span.  Let's see if Washington has around 2,300 diagnosed cases in a week. 

 

Edited by Captain Bill Burt
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1 hour ago, Don Coyote, SASS #63736 said:

Just saw the new draconian measures being enforced (close all bars & wineries, etc) by the CA governor, including (highly recommended) that everyone over age 65 stay home in self-imposed quarantine. How's that gonna affect next weeks, & next month's local matches? Curious.

All I know is that after reading the article my trips anywhere will be curtailed.  The only annual I've signed up for is in August. I hope this passes by then.

 

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This is all fast becoming a moot point as more and more Governors are restricting the size of gatherings.  Here in Nawth Ca'lina nothing over 100 people is allowed.  So, church services and classes are being conducted online.  Wherever possible, companies are being instructed to have employees work from home.  Other states the limit is 200, and 250.   Restaurants, bars, and other places are being closed.   So, match directors may no longer have a choice in the matter, unless we're talking about smaller, monthly matches. 

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If folks are compromised they need to stay at home. If you are sick stay at home. Take precautions doing posse duties, go home when the shooting is over. Keep a distance from each other. We can't stop every virus or bacteria that comes along. Keep living life just use caution. Ours is an outdoor activity, should be harder to contract outdoors than inside a heated building. 

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1 hour ago, Allie Mo, SASS No. 25217 said:

All I know is that after reading the article my trips anywhere will be curtailed.  The only annual I've signed up for is in August. I hope this passes by then.

 

Smart Cowgirl ! 

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Posted (edited)
29 minutes ago, Assassin said:

If folks are compromised they need to stay at home. If you are sick stay at home. Take precautions doing posse duties, go home when the shooting is over. Keep a distance from each other. We can't stop every virus or bacteria that comes along. Keep living life just use caution. Ours is an outdoor activity, should be harder to contract outdoors than inside a heated building. 

The contagiousness of COVID-19 is rated as "Extreme" by the WHO, NIH, and CDC, plus many states.

 

Every person who attends an event and becomes casually exposed to the virus, regardless of their own age or set of risk factors, becomes a carrier.  Then when  they leave and return home, to work, school, or go to the next event (still unknowing that they have been exposed), they are an unknowing carrier for at least five days, in which they expose everyone else whom they contact.

Not being one of the groups who are at risk personally and/or not showing symptoms does NOT stop exposed people conveying the disease to others.  So staying home only if you are not feeling well, isn't a solution.  

 

You don't know where your event attendees have recently previously been, or if they have been directly or secondarily exposed.  By sharing indoor or close outdoor space (within 6'), you now are a likely carrier or  victim. 

Edited by Dusty Devil Dale

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Not trying to sound pessimistic but if the the medical facilities get overwhelmed.....it's game over. The numbers do not look good, at least on paper. The best thing, in my opinion, is to not be a part of the problem. Except for necessities, I'm staying put. Panic and overreaction can and possibly will drive our economy into the ground. Perhaps that's what the Chinese military wanted when they invented this virus to begin with. They don't care if a million of their people die to put the US down. It's a drop in the bucket to them.....look at history.

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There's some pretty good research that indicates that Covid is thriving in a fairly narrow east-west band of temperature and humidity.  The best thing that could happen would be a warm spring with high humidity.  Hmm, sounds like Georgia. 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Don Coyote, SASS #63736 said:

Thanks for the link. What I'm talking about are local monthly matches with 20-35 shooters, all ages but most 65+. No cases in our rural county yet but that will change as more folks get symptoms, tested etc. We trust our members would stay home if they have any sign of illness, even common cold. So far no such inference as to restricting interaction just based on age in our state. Just a note, our daughter & family live in Kirkland, WA & as of Friday their schools were still open. Probably has changed by now.

I just shot a local small match this weekend, so obviously I agree with you.  We also don't have local outbreak at this time, and all of our shooters were local.  But our attendance was quite low-about 1/2 of normal.  Weather also played a role, but the absence of us old guys and gals was pretty apparent.  

But then after I came home this afternoon, I read in the news that now there are five or six cases of symptomatic COVUD-19 within the area our folks came in from.   And our County has issued an Emergency Declaration.   That's the kind of stuff that raises a person's  conerns.  

Thanks for your post. 

Edited by Dusty Devil Dale

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14 minutes ago, Dusty Devil Dale said:

The contagiousness of COVID-19 is rated as "Extreme" by the WHO, NIH, and CDC, plus many states.

 

Every person who attends an event and becomes casually exposed to the virus, regardless of their own age or set of risk factors, becomes a carrier.  Then when  they leave and return home, to work, school, or go to the next event (still unknowing that they have been exposed), they are an unknowing carrier for at least five days, in which they expose everyone else whom they contact.

Not being one of the groups who are at risk personally and/or not showing symptoms does NOT stop exposed people conveying the disease to others.  So staying home only if you are not feeling well, isn't a solution.  

 

You don't know where your event attendees have recently previously been, or if they have been directly or secondarily exposed.  By sharing indoor or close outdoor space (within 6'), you now are a likely carrier or  victim. 

So, you're saying we need to stop going anywhere that people might exist. How about work, I have to go to work or I don't get paid. I don't expect to be paid if I don't show up. I've had the flu in the past, it happens. We as a society cannot just stop doing everything. Yes, we need to take precautions. The odds of getting killed in an automobile accident are much higher than the coronavirus, we continue to ride in automobiles. We'll find out in a few weeks if it's the killer the media is hyping it to be. If the weather is good we'll be shooting next weekend, no I won't be shaking hands or hugging others. I might be shooting alone, that's okay too.

 

 

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The topic is: Match Directors: What's your take on COVID 19?

Try to keep the thread on track.  Some are trying to turn this political. 
I understand that there are strong feelings about the upcoming elections.

But, political posts will continue to be deleted.

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1 hour ago, Assassin said:

If folks are compromised they need to stay at home. If you are sick stay at home. Take precautions doing posse duties, go home when the shooting is over. Keep a distance from each other. We can't stop every virus or bacteria that comes along. Keep living life just use caution. Ours is an outdoor activity, should be harder to contract outdoors than inside a heated building. 

Agree outdoors should make it more difficult to spread. Great point to stay home if you are not 100%, it’s the only way to slow the spread and not overwhelm the system.  Government also needs to let CDC do its job.

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Eliphalet R. Moderator...

THANK YOU!

RR

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Captain Bill Burt said:

Now to be truly spooky.  In Italy, a week after the number of diagnosed cases was 5,061, it more than tripled to just over 17,000 diagnosed cases (3/14).  Increased infection or more widespread testing, or both?

 

WHO and CDC have averaged the "doubling rate" for COVID-19 at about 3 days during the steepest infection slope on the curve.   Double 5061 => 10,122 after 3 days.  Double that, goes to 20,244 after six days.   Just about matches the reports of diagnosed cases!  That would say the increase is all well explained by increased infections spreading by community contact.  No need to factor in more thorough testing catching cases which were being missed earlier.  Very few of those folks during the week actually traveled since January - so it's all community spreading now.  And that is with an almost complete ban on travel out of your own neighborhood in Italy that has been in place for the whole week.

 

Severe levels of social distancing and restriction is what Italy is now employing.   That SHOULD decrease the doubling rate.   Keep an eye on what Italy gets in the next couple of weeks  - it probably predicts what the US is going to have happen in about 4 weeks.

 

Good luck, and good protective health precautions, GJ

 

 

 

 

Edited by Garrison Joe, SASS #60708
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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Assassin said:

So, you're saying we need to stop going anywhere that people might exist. How about work, I have to go to work or I don't get paid. I don't expect to be paid if I don't show up. I've had the flu in the past, it happens. We as a society cannot just stop doing everything. Yes, we need to take precautions. The odds of getting killed in an automobile accident are much higher than the coronavirus, we continue to ride in automobiles. We'll find out in a few weeks if it's the killer the media is hyping it to be. If the weather is good we'll be shooting next weekend, no I won't be shaking hands or hugging others. I might be shooting alone, that's okay too.

 

 

Wait a week and see if you feel the same way.  The risk stats for infection and death are changing hourly as more infected people are discovered.  The U.S. death count today is  almost 10 times higher than it was on Wednesday.  The  CDC is now predicting 1.7 Million Americans will die due to the virus, before it is over, and that is with the expectation a vaccine will timely become available and it assumes that hospitals do not become exhausted for ICU space, drugs and equipment. 

 

I am not the one suggesting that you or anybody else stay away from people right now.  Rather, it is virtually every medical professional in the U.S. making that recommendation.  You can choose to ignore it today, but I predict you too will be hunkering down soon.   

 

As far as work goes, much of the country is in the same situation as you.  My wife is.  She has to physically be present at work daily.   We've watched the update reports carefly, and she is standing ready to stay home and risk job loss, if her workplace does not temporarily close their doors. 

 

I just read that the Ohio Governor reported that there may be 100,000 infected people in his state.  The infection numbers are rapidly and exponentially rising.   

 

I pray your work situation works out, and you are given a fair chance to duck this awful illness.  Hunker down if you can.  Very best of luck and health to you. 

Edited by Dusty Devil Dale

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1 hour ago, Mill City Maddog said:

also needs to let CDC do its job.

And we need to listen to them and follow their guidance. 

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Believe anyone with that amount of side-eye?   :lol:

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1 hour ago, Garrison Joe, SASS #60708 said:

Believe anyone with that amount of side-eye?   :lol:

Definitely not 'Dr. Drew'.

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This was something I posted on FB this morning.
There's quite a range in people's feelings on what's going on due to the Corona Virus. Here's a little perspective from my personal experience. Two years ago at this time I was visiting with my 94 year old father daily in his apartment in a small senior high rise. He had lived there for a number of years and I knew many of his friends and neighbors as well. Age and his health certainly put him and everyone in this building in the high risk category. Nurses, therapists, preachers, family, delivery personal (mail, food, etc) and friends came and went daily. Upon arrival, I pressed buttons and touched the handrail to take the elevator to his apartment. I visited with his neighbors in the lobby and exchanged hugs with some. Perhaps I retrieved a walker or helped someone in our out of a chair, too. When he was placed in a nursing home for his final days, some of his canned goods, cleaning supplies and other things from his cupboards were given to other residents. Nothing was sanitized.
This virus can be carried for something like 10 days before someone even feels sick. How many people could just one person spread it to in this building with only about 100 residents in just a week's time? Consider the doors, elevator buttons, the common area where group dinners are held and games are played. How many times are hugs and kisses exchanged? The pizza delivery guy gets tips. Neighbors carry casseroles down the hall to share with friends. Residents share magazines and newspapers. The list goes on and on. Who brought the virus in? Someone on the staff? Was it a delivery person, a family members, a neighbor who stops daily when walking their dog?
What's going on is not the fault of a political party. We can't blame either side. I'm tired of everyone looking past the issue in order to make this about politics. How about just focusing on the health of yourself, your family and friends for a while. Yes, this is inconvenient and for many expensive. But what is life worth! Yes, there's a high survival rate but it's not only about the survivors. There's a death rate, too!

With that said, as a match director, this is my feelings on our upcoming season and state match.  (Also posted on FB this morning)
Just thinking on this whole virus situation today and how our matches could be affected. We have two matches this month - 4th and 5th Sunday. They will go on as scheduled. Hand sanitizer will be available for use. Hug if you want to, fist or elbow bump if you don't. No one will be offended. Everyone, be aware and considerate of others due to the virus situation. Don't be a close talker. Cover your mouth if you cough, etc. Try to bring the correct change so we are not passing bills back and forth. The 50-50 will be "self-serve". I'll do all I can to present a clean clubhouse and porta-johns. Please do all you can to keep it that way.
Anything thing past the next two matches will be decided based upon what we are advised to do by the main club, county, state, etc. Please consider the state match a go unless something tells us it should not be. Should that happen, we'll do everything we can to reschedule or refund fees. Remember, March 31 is the deadline for the $15 discount.
Let's all just be smart and do all we can to minimize the spread of the virus and the situation will pass quicker. Your health is far more important that any cowboy action shoot. Please do all you can do to stay healthy.

I was pretty full of opinions on COVID-19 first thing this morning and I think these comments cover it.

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Hello everyone, just shot a two day annual this past weekend. Even with all the extra cleaning and fist bumps and attempting 6ft no fly zones, we are who we are. We fist bump one minute then shake hands later. Example, when awards were handed out a hand shake or hug happens when you receive your award. People still reach in a water cooler to retrieve a bottle of water. Brass pickers still reach in the net and place your brass on the table. You just can't think of everything that avoids contact. We are a social sport so contact of some kind is unavoidable. Just think, what if your mail carrier got the virous. You and your whole neighborhood could get it and not even leave home. Exception to going to the mail box. The older generation is the most affected and the majority of SASS shooters fits this description. I am the match director to the Gunfight at the Double-C to be held on April 25th and 26th here in Virginia and I will have to make the call to postpone or not in the next week or so. It's not just about all the planning and hard work put in already but it's about being torn between my love of the game the love of seeing and socializing with my friends and fellow shooters and my concern for their overall health and well being.   A decision that ways heavy on my heart.

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On 3/15/2020 at 9:06 PM, Captain Bill Burt said:

Thanks,  

 

I'm not sweating it. I've always been a numbers guy.  I looked at what the number of cases in Italy and Washington are doing.

 

On 2/22 Italy had 75 diagnosed cases.  14 days later they had 5,061.  That's where I came up with going from 99 today to 6,000 in two weeks in Georgia.   We're now up to 287 so basically tripling in three days.  I don't trust that number though, we're short tests. 

 

Now to be truly spooky.  In Italy, a week after the number of diagnosed cases was 5,061, it more than tripled to just over 17,000 diagnosed cases (3/14).  Increased infection or more widespread testing, or both?  Italy is now at 35,719 cases, more than doubled in 4 days. 

 

On March 2nd Washington had 18 diagnosed cases.  Two weeks later they have 769.  That growth rate is pretty comparable to Italy's over the same infection time span.  Let's see if Washington has around 2,300 diagnosed cases in a week.  Washington is at 1,187 after four days.  That would be encouraging, but is it a drop off in infections or a shortage of tests?

 

Buy Acetaminophen pards, stay away from Ibuprofen. 


If social distancing is working we should see a change in the diagnosis rate within a few days.  Right now we're probably still diagnosing infections that occurred a week or so ago before SD became a thing.  

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I had to cancel due to the club/bar on property having shut down for two weeks, thus all shooting activities must stop also. Only 2 cases in our county but wanting to be safe for my friends over 60. We will get through this and be back to shooting soon. Stay out of the big cities.

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