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re: Shortage ... Alliant Powder has NOT been bought out by anti-gunners.


John Boy

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Subject: RE: Alliant Powder - Ask the Expert Form

BC,
It is indeed a highly frustrating time for a reloader.

Alliant Powder has NOT been bought out by anti-gunners. Alliant used to be Herco and has been going since the late 1800's. Much to the conspiracy theorists, there is nothing going on as far as the government limiting our production. All that is fodder for the internet to enrage folks. Nothing more.
We are producing more powder today than we ever have. We are running the facilities 24/7 and as I said, making more of it than ever before.

There are several things happening today.

One is the "scalpers". These are the folks, waiting for the trucks to be unloaded at the stores and pulling the powder out of the hands of the shelf stockers in the stores. Talk to the people in the stores and they will tell you that the same people are there every day/week at the same times. They know when the supplies are delivered. They are then buying as much as the store will allow, because many of the stores are putting an allotment for purchases. Then these guys are having family and friends purchase more product. The next weekend you will find these powders they have purchased at the gun shows and selling it at 2 - 3 - 4 times what they paid for it. This is a common theme.

Along these lines you have the hoarders. People are going out and purchasing more ammunition than they can possibly use in four lifetimes. Powder will also fall into this category. I have talked to folks and posed the question to them that five years ago, if you saw powder on the shelf, how much would you have purchased. Most of the time the answer was one maybe to containers. Then I asked them, so today, how many would you purchase and the answer is that they would fill the shopping cart up.

Another fact is that every day I am answering questions from reloaders that have pulled out their presses that they have had in storage for the last 15 - 20 - 30, or more, years and starting to reload again. It is not just one or two of these questions we are receiving a day, but many.

Finally there are the OEM's. OEM's fall into two categories. There are the big boys, such as Remington, CCI/Speer, Hornady, and Winchester are sucking up powder and powder resources like a fiend. Then there are the remanufacture ammunition companies. Near where I live I can think of half a dozen remanufacture companies that have sprouted up over the last several years. Both of these OEM's are trying to fill the shelves with ammunition in our stores. This is the biggest drain on the powder resources.

We use a two tiered distribution system for delivering the powders. The powder is shipped to a distributor. From there, the powder is sent off to dealers, wholesalers and retail outlets. Once the powder is sent to the distributor, we have no control as to where the powder may end up. Having worked in retail in the past, and going through such shortages, we ordered supplies from many different distributors. These distributors may have been 100 miles away, or they may have been across the country. In other words we were not putting all of our eggs in one basket when it came to ordering. The last small firearms store I worked out told me during the primer shortage a few years back, "If all of my primer orders/backorders come in tomorrow, I'm bankrupt". Once the orders started to appear, backorders were cancelled quickly. Yes, there are problems at times with the two tier distribution system, especially at times like this, but it is the best system we have.

Recently, I have had success finding powders at the smaller mom and pop stores. Yes, I have to purchase my powders from the same place you do as we have been told that the employees will be the last customer served. One of the reasons I believe the smaller stores may be more successful is for the following reason. The big stores are just auto-generating their orders. The computer is ordering for them. The mom and pop stores are putting in the time searching the distributors and seeing what is available every day and making orders immediately. I guess what I am saying is don't overlook the smaller mom and pop stores.

So if we can get the "scalpers" to halt their actions, get ammunition supplies back on the shelf and stop the hoarders from purchasing 4 lifetimes supplies of ammunition and powders, things should start to look up.

And things are starting to show sign of easing. We have seen several factors showing this. Gun sales have dropped. Primer orders are slowing. We are seeing more ammunition on the shelves today than we were six to eight months ago. Finally, as I said, having worked in retail in the past, these kind of shortages lasted a year to a year and a half. We are into this just over a year. All of these facts lead some of us to believe that things may start to be easing by mid to late summer. On that hand though, don't hold me to this. All it will take is someone stepping into another school or movie theater and performing another hideous act. If that happens, we fear it will start all over again.

If you want to read another take on what is happening, not just mine, take a look at http://www.sierrabullets.com/ . Sierra Bullets does not make ammunition or powder, but, the vice president of that company wrote an excellent article on the shortage of ammunition. It is on the rotating screen of their front page explaining the 22 ammunition shortage. Many of the same issues with the 22 shortage could also be applied to the powder shortages.

I know all of the above does not make it any easier to take but, that is pretty much what is going on.

Thanks,
Shoot Straight
Duane
CCI/SPEER/ALLIANT POWDER
2299 Snake River Ave.
Lewiston, ID

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Fear and confusion always generates opportunity.

 

I actually found four pounds of Titgroup locally BUT the guy wanted $150.00. He was unashamed about the price. He stated that he paid $101.50 for the container and another $27.50 in Hazmat charges, so he was basically making $20 on the deal. I am down to five pounds of Titgroup and really wanted that container but couldn't bring myself to buy it.

 

I can make it to the end of the year, but after that I guess I will take up bowling or fishing or knitting......

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I've read the same press release for the past year or so and similar ones from other companies. While I originally attributed all these shortages to hoarding, I'm starting to think there is more to it. I'm not a conspiracy theory enthusiast but a nationwide continuous shortage is more than a little unusual. I go to four local stores, some on a daily basis. (One of which is Dillon since they aren't far from my house.) None have had more than a pound or two any fast burning powders for many, many months. If you load for the .50 BMG there is powder. But no pistol or shotgun powder.

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I'm STRONGLY believing that the guys from Alliant and Sierra are right on the money. That is the same explanation I've gotten from others in the industry. And my own knowledge of the distribution channels and the ordering mechanisms that the big retailers use..

 

It isn't hard math - you sell 100% more guns in 2012 and 2013 than ever before, then you don't expect that there will be a big demand for ammunition, powder, primers, other reloading gear and components in the following year or two? What are you, then, out to lunch?

 

Good luck, GJ

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I'm STRONGLY believing that the guys from Alliant and Sierra are right on the money. That is the same explanation I've gotten from others in the industry. And my own knowledge of the distribution channels and the ordering mechanisms that the big retailers use..

 

It isn't hard math - you sell 100% more guns in 2012 and 2013 than ever before, then you don't expect that there will be a big demand for ammunition, powder, primers, other reloading gear and components in the following year or two? What are you, then, out to lunch?

 

Good luck, GJ

Was that meant for me? If so, yeah I like lunch. Had a White Sands Chimi for lunch today. Don't know about your marketing expertise but gun production was up 38%. Some models might have been 100% but not the industry as a whole. A lot of those AR-15 sales were panic buys and a lot of them are for sale now, new in their boxes. Those panic buyers didn't rush out and take up hand loading. Again, I understand what you and the press releases are saying and I have friends in the industry, but this powder shortage seems too protracted to be the solely the result of increased gun sales alone. If you think I'm out to lunch fine, pile it on.

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Here's the strange bit. Our local shotgun reloading supplier is still just cranking through shot, primers, wads, etc... we just picked up the last bags of shot they had for the month. It was lucky we had them put our names on it last week or it would have been gone.

 

They have not had any powder in almost a year and tell you up front not to ask because none is coming in with no ETA.

 

So are you figuring out where I'm going?

 

If our family and all their other customers are still going through all of their other types of components at breakneck pace... where have we all been getting enough powder for the last year to still NEED anything else they sell, like shot?

 

We've been getting a little here, a little there, a keg here, a keg there but NONE of it from the actual reloading supplier. They should HAVE powder. They should be on the TOP of the food chain for getting powder or at least getting regular shipments. Competition shooters, trap clubs and entire shooting ranges depend on this vendor for supplies.

 

Something is royally messed up in the supply chain. Too much to the wrong places maybe?

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Was that meant for me? If so, yeah I like lunch. Had a White Sands Chimi for lunch today. Don't know about your marketing expertise but gun production was up 38%. Some models might have been 100% but not the industry as a whole. A lot of those AR-15 sales were panic buys and a lot of them are for sale now, new in their boxes. Those panic buyers didn't rush out and take up hand loading. Again, I understand what you and the press releases are saying and I have friends in the industry, but this powder shortage seems too protracted to be the solely the result of increased gun sales alone. If you think I'm out to lunch fine, pile it on.

 

 

No, comment was intended for those folks who believe there is a grand conspiracy and a great big hole in the ground in Nevada someplace where the guvmint is destroying all our components.

2 years ago, all the scuttlebutt talk was about how there were never going to be ANY firearms available ANY MORE. Especially semi-auto rifles and pistols. So, they all got snapped up off the shelves. Now, they are all back again and shops are starting clearance sales. The "gun shop" rumor mill was badly misinformed.

Then, all the ammo disappeared. There was NEVER going to EVER be any more on the shelves, according to rumors. Well, those shelves are all filled back up now (except for cowboy stuff and odd military ammo), because the ammo companies all went to 24x7 production, and that used up all the component supply. The "gun shop" rumor mill was badly misinformed, again.

So, now there's no component supply. Especially shotgun/pistol powder. Production probably switched hard into the powders suitable for loading 5.56/.223 and .308 and 22 LR so the ammo companies could try to meet demand caused by the new guns. Whatever the root cause is, just the disruption in supply caused a HUGE ripple in the flow of gun powder, and some in bullet and primer product lines.

Think how the introduction of one odd ball gun, the Taurus Judge, threw .45 Colt and .410 shotgun ammo supply totally out the window about 3 years ago. It does not take much to kick the normal distribution channels off kilter. Who would have predicted that .45 Colt ammo, of all calibers, would be hard to find? Or .410 shotshells, for crying out loud - no one wants .410s.

This shortage will be fixed too, unless something else comes along to kick the system off into panic mode again.

So, buy wisely, VOTE wisely, and plan ahead. Share with your fellow shooters (rather than gouge them).

We will get through this one, too. To re-coin a phrase, "The rumors of our permanent shortage situation have been wildly exaggerated."

But, if you want to see what the gov. really is trying to do, out of very misguided intent (or worse), look up "Choke Point" (or just remember "Fast and Furious") and it's effect on totally legal gun shop operations!

 

Good luck, GJ

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Garrison Joe,

I just read that article on "choke Point program" and it reminded me of something. Someone on here had posted how they got turned down for a loan because the item they wanted to buy ( bullet caster ) was considered ammunition. They ended up going to another bank that approved the loan.

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Yep, Garduno's in the Winrock Mall (on Lousiana) still operates. A few other locations closed over the last couple of years.

 

And another that I think is absolutely fantastic is Church Street Cafe, a little place in Old Town.

 

Good luck, GJ

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ok I'm jumping in here. if I be a little wrong some one will be more than glad to correct me I find what is posted to be good information I have the same problem getting supplies.

 

now we want to know where the powder comes from go to www.adi-powders.con

thales is the main distriduter you will find who makes most of the powder for the 8 us companies

read the information on the canaster there are 2 little words MADE IN found on the container do some research and cross reference same powders under different names

see you down the road

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I've read the same press release for the past year or so and similar ones from other companies. While I originally attributed all these shortages to hoarding, I'm starting to think there is more to it. I'm not a conspiracy theory enthusiast but a nationwide continuous shortage is more than a little unusual.

 

It is a good explanation by Duane at Alliant but I notice he does not address the root cause for the extreme demand for powder and ammunition.

 

It's all political.

 

The driving force behind the powder and ammunition shortage is fear of the Federal Government. Many folks are better informed than ever and can easily stay updated on current events though the Internet and conservative programs on FOXNews and AM Radio.

 

I realize from previous discussions that most of the members on this forum do not share the concerns of the expansive growth of the Federal Government and their abuse of power. Yet every day reveals another action by the Feds to block any the release of any information by their respective agency (a computer crash lost all of Lois Lerner's emails) and programs that far exceed their actual need and mandate.

 

Our politicians along with some folks on this forum are concerned about Russian tanks crossing the border into Ukraine yet accept without reservation Law Enforcement agencies across the nation equipping themselves with tanks, er MRAPS, er community relations vehicles and equipping their Officers to look more and more like combat soldiers.

 

The elections in 2014 and 2016 will be the defining moments in the history of our nation along with whether the Republican Party continues to ignore Conservative voters. There may be a shred of hope. The loss by Eric Canter has reportedly rattled the Republican Party to it's core.

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Well said, Seldom Seen. Sad, but well said.

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The part I noticed was about the scalpers, they sound like a problem, but I am wondering why retailers are allowing the scalpers to buy up the product that way......I know they want to sell and make money, but they limit everyone else to a certain amount. They should stop the scalpers, I blame the retailers for that not the scalpers.

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They should stop the scalpers, I blame the retailers for that not the scalpers.

 

How in the world do you as a retailer stop a determined scalper who is buying retail? :blink:

 

You say, set a quota, so many shells a day. First Fred comes in and gets a quota-worth of shells. Then Fred's wife comes in, does same. Then Fred's BIL. And Sis. And as many of the kids who are old enough. And the next day, they do it again.

 

Fred hauls the whole truck load to the next gun show, peddles it at 2 or 3x the retail price because the local stores now have no merchandise.

 

Where are you as the retailer going to be able to spot that activity? Unless you have folks out watching every gun show, shooting match, bar parking lot, indoor shooting range, etc. in the next three counties for ammo that you may have sold him.

 

"They" should stop scalpers. The only "THEY" that is going to work is if all of us are the "THEY" you are talking about. Are WE all willing to:

* buy only from our retail shops

* pass by our buddy who says, I got a deal for you!

* pass by our buddy even if we don't have ANY ammo for next week's match

* when the supplies DO show up on the shelf, don't buy anymore than we ourselves need for the next six months or so

?

 

That's the big question, and not until we get back to doing what we did in the early 2000s will the supply system straighten out.

 

Takes a lot of discipline to do that.

 

Whipping the dealers when it's the scalpers that are deliberately undermining the system is as big a mistake as blaming law-abiding gun owners for school shootings and bank robberies.

 

Good luck, GJ

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I was able to buy a 8lb jug of Bullseye last week. $106. Store had 2 jugs on the shelf. Had lots of other powders and primers.

 

My local Walmart had their ammo shelves full Sunday. I saw 380, 45, 38sp 38+P, 40, plus a bunch of rifle calibers. They even has some 38sp lead RNFP!

 

I'm no nationwide expert, but the rumblings and rumors I'm hearing, and the things I am SEEING would indicate that the great ammo shortage is coming to an end. In my opinion, it was kind of a perfect storm.....new shooters buying guns and therefore ammo, the Sandy Hook incident that had some fear that guns and ammo would no longer be made, so they started hoarding, plain old fear of the current government, and the internet, which fuels more fires and spreads more rumors than anything in our history. I saw a quote just the other day, attributed to Abraham Lincoln.....Don't believe everything you see on the internet............ good advice!

 

Hopefully thge ammo shortage will continue to ease, and we can just argue about open and empty, blue jeans, and whether the term "gamer" is an insult or a compliment!~

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Just another thought. (or maybe just comic relief?)

 

Part of the problem may be that people don't buy things in ratio to loading ammo.

 

If you already have cases & the following estimates are used:

 

All the following are variable of course depending on caliber, load etc...

 

1 lb powder at at $30. 7 grs per load = 1000 rnds. (at 4.7 grs. =1,500 rnds)

 

1k primers at $36.

 

1k bullets at $90

 

How many people actually go out & buy the 8k - 12k bullets to go with the 8lb powder keg $240, they bought, spending another $720. - $1080. ?

 

(also takes up a lot of room)

 

It really starts getting crazy when you think about larger quantities.

 

 

Part of it may also be the target price point.

It is easier to come up with the $30 or $36 than the $90, so people just spend the lesser amount but feel good because they got to buy something.

 

 

($ are all rough, as there may be breaks on quantity & +/- load types etc, but you get the drift)

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