WSJ & Constitutional Carry

[Lawdog]

WSJ’s Fearmongering Doesn’t Survive Contact With Evidence | RealClearPolitics

[John Kloehr]

Interesting read. Being stats are from John Lott (pro 2A, but some questionable stats at times), I took a look to fill in some questions.

 

One item I noted is officer incidents where bystanders were shot are 6 to 7 times more likely than for lawful carriers. There are certainly possible reasons for this such as maybe there being far more armed officers than lawful carriers. Or needing to use a firearm more often. A quick search finds:

• About 900,000 sworn officers in the US
• About 21,000,000 licensed carriers in the US
• About 15% of carriers carry daily
• Permit-less carry will increase the numbers, no stats available
• Quick math, lawful armed carriers outnumber LE at least 4 to 1 not counting irregular/occasional or permit-less carry

Interpretation: If an officer is 25 times more likely than a carrier to fire with cause, then the statistic is equal.

 

The best I have been able to find on this is that about 92% of concealed carriers never have used a firearm in self-defense (drawn or fired). But this does not consider the incomplete nature of the statistic. How long has the person been carrying, how old are they?

 

For officers, the numbers range from ~75% never in the entire career (rural) to ~60% never in urban areas. This statistic involves actually firing the weapon, and includes dispatching injured or attacking animals and warning shots.

 

So apples and oranges without context or likelihood. Also missing multiple events for any individual or a breakout between everything from desk jockey to patrol to SWAT.

[Blackwater 53393]

That 15% of licensed gun owners amouts to approximately 3,100,000 people who are armed on a daily basis.
 

Roughly three times as many civilians as police officers are armed on a daily basis!

 

At that rate, given the other statistics offered, it’s still about twice as likely that a stray bullet from an officer’s weapon will strike an uninvolved bystander.

 

That’s only true if an equal proportion of those civilians actually present and fire their weapon! 
 

I only know two or three civilians who have actually fired their weapon in defense of themselves or others, (I, personally, have presented my own weapon twice, but never fired it) and in none of those incidents was there anyone besides the aggressor who was struck by their shots. It’s important to note that in ALL of those instances, the use of deadly force was deemed justified!

 

[John Kloehr]

7 hours ago, Blackwater 53393 said:

... That’s only true if an equal proportion of those civilians actually present and fire their weapon! 
 

I only know two or three civilians who have actually fired their weapon in defense of themselves or others...

 

I kind of hinted at this unresolved question. While a criminal may cross paths with an armed carrier in the course of a crime, an officer is tasked with responding to a call, or dealing with confrontation on patrol. Hence the question of proportion (or context) can not be the same.

 

I have fired a warning shot to break up a dog attack. Almost had to shoot one of the dogs seconds later, but they (and one in particular) wisely decided to heed the call of his owner. In another event, had my carry half out of its holster when I figured out those approaching were good samaritans and not the a'hole who flipped my car in a road rage attack.

Edited December 28, 2025 by John Kloehr
Otto