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Watch Out Middle Florida...(Now Officially Hurricane) Milton Is On The Way!


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While everyone is still reeling from the aftermath of Hurricane Helene, it looks like another storm is developing in the western Caribbean that appears headed directly for the Tampa Bay area.  Some of the models I saw indicate it might hit Cat4 but then weaken to be a Cat3 at landfall, which would not be good at all.

 

Still pretty early in the development, but it is better to prepared than not.  At a minimum, it bears watching.

 

MiltonHurricane.png.6ae4f7de3e2547e31957224bd43c2270.png

 

Note:  The last time I posted one of these graphics, I was able to also post an image that auto-updated.  In theory, the upper one of these two images should be static and the lower image should update to follow the storm.  Let's see if it works!  B)

 

 

150217_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

 

 

 

Edited by Dogmeat Dad, SASS #48563L
Title Clarification...
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  • Dogmeat Dad, SASS #48563L changed the title to Watch Out Middle Florida...(Soon to be Hurricane) Milton Is On The Way!

I just talked with my daughter and wife whom are in Wisconsin for a 1/2 marathon race and they said my daughter was trying to get out today and fly back to St Pete to get ready for this one. This one is expected to hit her direct since she is about a mile north of Tampa Bay. She only had about 6 inches in her garage on Helene and none in the house but this one is supposed to hit solid and wipe out houses in its path. She at least wants to try to board it back up and put back the sand bags before it hits. She will be going across the bay to Bradenton and staying at friends second floor condo. What a nightmare for these people. Prayers needed for them all.

 

TM

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Cypress Sun, aren't you also in the path of this one? Take care and keep your powder dry.

 

TM

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2 minutes ago, Texas Maverick said:

Cypress Sun, aren't you also in the path of this one? Take care and keep your powder dry.

 

TM

 

Yes, I just hope they're wrong about...well, everything. If it is going to hit the Tampa Bay area, I hope it's south of Tampa for my sake...but somewhere is going to be hit hard and I hate it for everyone.

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1 hour ago, Cypress Sun said:

 

Yes, I just hope they're wrong about...well, everything. If it is going to hit the Tampa Bay area, I hope it's south of Tampa for my sake...but somewhere is going to be hit hard and I hate it for everyone.

 

The 4PM Saturday update shows it wiggling to the north of Tampa Bay just a bit.  Looks like landfall is going to be at my front door!

 

Still a long way to go, and a lot can happen, but damn, barely 10 days apart.

 

Buckle Up!

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5 hours ago, Dogmeat Dad, SASS #48563L said:

 

The 4PM Saturday update shows it wiggling to the north of Tampa Bay just a bit.  Looks like landfall is going to be at my front door!

 

Still a long way to go, and a lot can happen, but damn, barely 10 days apart.

 

Buckle Up!

 

I need it to go south of Tampa Bay. That way it blows the water out of the Intercoastal and Tampa Bay.

Edited by Cypress Sun
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Prayers for all those in the path of this latest storm!

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I'm praying that another hurricane doesn't hit my kids in North Carolina.  They live on one of only two tropical rainforests in North America.  The ground is always totally saturated so nothing soaks in.  It just rolls down hill tearing up everything in its path.

 

They didn't get a lot of wind, but the heaviest rains since 1912 (so I'm told).  They didn't get a  lot of damage, but the land for forty miles in every direction took a massive hit.  No roads, no power, no communications, bridges, roads, houses, nothing that we take for granted...all destroyed and more.

 

They are saying now that there won't be a complete recovery for up to three years.

 

I realize that I sound selfish...and I am.  I hope everyone recovers and they don't get clobbered again.

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8 hours ago, watab kid said:

fema spent all their money on illegal's  grab your ankles 

Yep and they’re denying it yet the press secretary is on video saying FEMA funds are available for illegal immigrants😡 What a shame!
The legal residents have to apply for $750 and some are saying they were denied. No details were given . 

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15 hours ago, Dogmeat Dad, SASS #48563L said:

 

The 4PM Saturday update shows it wiggling to the north of Tampa Bay just a bit.  Looks like landfall is going to be at my front door!

 

Still a long way to go, and a lot can happen, but damn, barely 10 days apart.

 

Buckle Up!

Dogmeat, where are you located? You profile says Maryland but that a lot north of Tampa Bay. Just stay safe.

 

TM

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3 hours ago, Rye Miles #13621 said:

Yep and they’re denying it yet the press secretary is on video saying FEMA funds are available for illegal immigrants😡 What a shame!
The legal residents have to apply for $750 and some are saying they were denied. No details were given . 

Have a friend I worked with whose home was destroyed and staying at friends here. They tried applying for the 750.00 and yes, were denied.

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6 minutes ago, Texas Maverick said:

Dogmeat, where are you located? You profile says Maryland but that a lot north of Tampa Bay. Just stay safe.

 

TM

 

We have a "Retirement" condo north of Tampa near Dunedin.  It's been in Holli's family since it was built new in the mid70's.  We bought it from Holli's Dad in 2003 but he continued to live there until he passed in 2014.  The plan has been for Holli and I to play snowbirds and winter in Florida, but that got delayed as I needed to stay local to care for my parents, who are both gone now, Mom passed last year.

 

Florida has been a second home to us for just about ever.  I made my first trip to the Keys in 1974 after I graduated high-school and would have moved there after college, but both Holli and my families were here in Maryland and we wanted our kids to have that life experience.  I have lived my whole life in the same county in Maryland, but I don't think I want to live here in retirement.  The politics here have ruined a beautiful state and the proximity to the Swamp (Washington, DC) just makes it worse.

 

Probably another year of cleaning up family estate issues, then Holli will retire, and we will be free to experience the joys of getting flooded out first hand! :P

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9 minutes ago, Dogmeat Dad, SASS #48563L said:

 

We have a "Retirement" condo north of Tampa near Dunedin.  It's been in Holli's family since it was built new in the mid70's.  We bought it from Holli's Dad in 2003 but he continued to live there until he passed in 2014.  The plan has been for Holli and I to play snowbirds and winter in Florida, but that got delayed as I needed to stay local to care for my parents, who are both gone now, Mom passed last year.

 

Florida has been a second home to us for just about ever.  I made my first trip to the Keys in 1974 after I graduated high-school and would have moved there after college, but both Holli and my families were here in Maryland and we wanted our kids to have that life experience.  I have lived my whole life in the same county in Maryland, but I don't think I want to live here in retirement.  The politics here have ruined a beautiful state and the proximity to the Swamp (Washington, DC) just makes it worse.

 

Probably another year of cleaning up family estate issues, then Holli will retire, and we will be free to experience the joys of getting flooded out first hand! :P

Just stay safe. I don't think you are too far from my daughter in St Pete.

 

TM

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Wife and daughter just got home from Wisconsin and it looks like both of them are going to fly out if they can to try and load some stuff up in her car and board up the house again and then go inland somewhere.  I also hope and pray for all those cowboys and cowgirls that are caught in the dilemma of what to do about Land Run next week. Just stay safe.

 

TM

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15 minutes ago, Texas Maverick said:

Wife and daughter just got home from Wisconsin and it looks like both of them are going to fly out if they can to try and load some stuff up in her car and board up the house again and then go inland somewhere.  I also hope and pray for all those cowboys and cowgirls that are caught in the dilemma of what to do about Land Run next week. Just stay safe.

 

TM

 

Please remind her that she doesn't have to go far. A study structure that is not in a flood zone is all that's needed. Hide from the wind, run from the water.

 

We're going to board up tomorrow. Trimmed what little tree branches that could harm the roof and most of the stuff is already still in the shed from a few days ago. We are going to go to her cousin's house that was built in the 50's and is about 45' above mean high tide mark. House is built like a tank also...that's back when they used real wood to build a house and trusses. His place is only 15 minutes from us so no re-entry problems into our county.

 

Hopefully everything will work out, but I don't know....this one looks real nasty, dire predictions. I've never really worried before about a hurricane or storm, this one concerns me. Mrs. Sun is really scared.

 

We'll monitor the path closely, see what happens and take (hopefully) the appropriate action.

 

 

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21 minutes ago, Cypress Sun said:

 

Please remind her that she doesn't have to go far. A study structure that is not in a flood zone is all that's needed. Hide from the wind, run from the water.

 

We're going to board up tomorrow. Trimmed what little tree branches that could harm the roof and most of the stuff is already still in the shed from a few days ago. We are going to go to her cousin's house that was built in the 50's and is about 45' above mean high tide mark. House is built like a tank also...that's back when they used real wood to build a house and trusses. His place is only 15 minutes from us so no re-entry problems into our county.

 

Hopefully everything will work out, but I don't know....this one looks real nasty, dire predictions. I've never really worried before about a hurricane or storm, this one concerns me. Mrs. Sun is really scared.

 

We'll monitor the path closely, see what happens and take (hopefully) the appropriate action.

 

 

From the reports I have been watching they are all hoping for a southern route south of Tampa Bay which would mean instead of a 14' surge only 8" of rain. Still not good since there isn't anywhere for the water to go but still the lessor of the two scenarios. They are saying to go north to the panhandle of FL and not inland or to the east coast since it is going to go all the way across FL and exit still a hurricane 1 or 2.

 

TM

Edited by Texas Maverick
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If it holds it's current path, the eye will pass directly over us as it exits the East coast.  Not as bad as the folks on the West coast have it, but not fun.  The house is about 8 miles from the coast, as the crow files.  We are about as prepared as we can be.  We will just watch and wait. 

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  • Dogmeat Dad, SASS #48563L changed the title to Watch Out Middle Florida...(Now Officially Hurricane) Milton Is On The Way!
14 hours ago, Rye Miles #13621 said:

Yep and they’re denying it yet the press secretary is on video saying FEMA funds are available for illegal immigrants😡 What a shame!
The legal residents have to apply for $750 and some are saying they were denied. No details were given . 

this is unforgivable - ripping of our emergency funds for ilegals is unforgivable , ripping off Social Security for non citezens and those that never paid in is unforgivable , they have a lot to answer for and telling us lies just dont cut it anymore , 

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2 hours ago, Calamity Kris said:

If it holds it's current path, the eye will pass directly over us as it exits the East coast.  Not as bad as the folks on the West coast have it, but not fun.  The house is about 8 miles from the coast, as the crow files.  We are about as prepared as we can be.  We will just watch and wait. 


 

Good luck!  Keep us updated please!

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Posted (edited)
29 minutes ago, Sedalia Dave said:

News this AM says it’s now a Cat 4 and may strengthen to a Cat 5 before land fall. :(

 

 

Most of the reports I am seeing that it will weaken a bit before landfall, but they are still expecting it to be a Cat 3 when it hits.  The big question is going to be exactly where.  North of Tampa will bring a huge storm surge to Tampa Bay, south of Tampa will push the water into the bay at Port Charlotte.  The latest Storm Surge map from the National Hurricane Center is below.  This is on top of whatever the tides are at the moment of impact.  (I think this will auto update as the reports change.)

 

093335_peak_surge.png

 

 

Regardless of where it hits, there is going to be a lot of damage to a lot of areas that are still rebuilding from Ian in 2022 as well as the folks still trying to assess the damage from Helene just a little over a week ago.  From the videos on YouTube, may of those areas still have huge piles of debris out on the streets from Helene waiting to be disposed of.  All of that is going to add into the mix of incoming water.

 

Folks basically have today and most of tomorrow to prepare.  Batten Down The Hatches, Pack Up, and Get The "H" Out Of The Way!

 

Stay Safe! 

 

 

Edited by Dogmeat Dad, SASS #48563L
Cuz I Don't Spel Two Gud!
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Wife and daughter flew out this morning for St Pete. They are loading up her personal items and trying to secure her home as much as possible. My wife plans on flying out tomorrow for OKC to meet me at Land Run while my daughter looks for a place to stay safe. I told her to head north to the panhandle if she plans on staying close. Not gonna be pretty and I will have to put up with a wife that will be on edge until this is all over and we know Brie is safe. I told her that the home or anything in it is worth her life and not to take any chances. I hope it hits south of Tampa Bay but still feel bad about those south getting hit harder. No win win in this.

 

TM

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2 hours ago, Sedalia Dave said:

News this AM says it’s now a Cat 4 and may strengthen to a Cat 5 before land fall. :(

 

 

It's a Cat 5 now packing 160 mph winds.

 

It's looking pretty grim. No matter where this hits, damage is going to be extreme. 

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2 hours ago, Dogmeat Dad, SASS #48563L said:

 

Most of the reports I am seeing that it will weaken a bit before landfall, but they are still expecting it to be a Cat 3 when it hits.  The big question is going to be exactly where.  North of Tampa will bring a huge storm surge to Tampa Bay, south of Tampa will push the water into the bay at Port Charlotte.  The latest Storm Surge map from the National Hurricane Center is below.  This is on top of whatever the tides are at the moment of impact.  (I think this will auto update as the reports change.)

 

093335_peak_surge.png

 

 

Regardless of where it hits, there is going to be a lot of damage to a lot of areas that are still rebuilding from Ian in 2022 as well as the folks still trying to assess the damage from Helene just a little over a week ago.  From the videos on YouTube, may of those areas still have huge piles of debris out on the streets from Helene waiting to be disposed of.  All of that is going to add into the mix of incoming water.

 

Folks basically have today and most of tomorrow to prepare.  Batten Down The Hatches, Pack Up, and Get The "H" Out Of The Way!

 

Stay Safe! 

 

 

 

We boarded up but if we get hit with 160 mph winds...it isn't going to matter much.

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31 minutes ago, Cypress Sun said:

 

We boarded up but if we get hit with 160 mph winds...it isn't going to matter much.

Hopefully it decreases to the CAT 3 they are predicting when it hits landfall. We will take anything positive when it comes.

 

TM

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As a Canadian, I have never experienced a hurricane, (And don't want to) but I have friends in and around the Orlando/Claremont area as well as on the East coast near Canaveral.

What kind of danger are they in?

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Hurricanes generally lose energy when they hit land. The further inland it continues to travel, they continue to shed energy due to various factors including friction.

The inland areas could face dangerous winds and possible flooding not related to surge. The east coast could also face dangerous winds, possible storm surge flooding and no surge flooding.

 

If your friends are in an area that floods from either rain or surge, they need to leave. If they reside in a mobile home, they need to seek a sturdier structure. 

 

Fact is, anyone in the direct path of the storm can be in danger.

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1 hour ago, Cold Lake Kid, SASS # 51474 said:

As a Canadian, I have never experienced a hurricane, (And don't want to) but I have friends in and around the Orlando/Claremont area as well as on the East coast near Canaveral.

What kind of danger are they in?

depends on where it hits and how it goes across the state. at this time no one knows. My wife and daughter are in the middle of where it is supposed to hit so watching it very closely.

 

TM

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10 minutes ago, Texas Maverick said:

depends on where it hits and how it goes across the state. at this time no one knows. My wife and daughter are in the middle of where it is supposed to hit so watching it very closely.

 

TM

Time for them to get out. Even tomorrow is time to get out. Wednesday might be too late to get out, won't be able to outrun it.

 

While it will be a 5 (might already be), will likely weaken to a 3 when it hits. Will probably still be a 1 when it gets to the Atlantic side.

 

Will be a 50 mile wide Brillo pad scrubbing the ground, this is a tight tough storm. Don't be anywhere near it. Everyone needs to get on the other side of the wind shear on the north side of it when it rips through.

Edited by John Kloehr
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