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Availability?


Waxahachie Kid #17017 L

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I went to a gun show, this past weekend, and the ammo, and primers, were still as scarce as hen's teeth, and the prices would make a billy-goat barf. 

 

The so-called "sporting goods" stores, around here, still have empty shelves (but plenty of clothing, and other yuppie stuff).

 

----I was wondering if this is just here, or are you Pards experiencing the same thing where you are???----

 

Not too many weeks ago, we were inundated with videos, from the manufacturers, about how they are working 24/7/365.  That is good, and I appreciate that, if indeed that is true. I have no proof that it isn't true.

 

So...is all this because of transportation problems now, or folks buy up every thing in sight....or....what?

 

Just wondering if I am alone, in this here boat. 

 

Your thoughts please, and thanks for the input.

 

Yer Ole Saddle Pal...

W.K.

 

 

 

 

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Shelves are full to overflowing.  Federal primers are $25.00 per thousand no limit.  8 pound kegs of Clays powder is $75.00.  What other fantasies do you want to hear?

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It seems as if the availability comes in waves.  A month or two ago, the larger retailers had days when primers, for example, were available online.  Even though they didn't last long unsold they were there.  The availability of powder comes and goes, although most of the powder available seems to be for rifle cartridges.  Prices don't appear to be headed down although loaded ammo is available for sale in some places at only $25 a box of 50 for 9 mm and $1.00 a round for 5.56 ammo.  So, nowhere near the "fantasy" levels Larsen brought up. 

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There ain't SH** available here. 

 

It's more than transportation.  There's a huge demand.  There have been over 8 million new gun owners over the last 18 months or so.  If each one bought 100 rounds, that's 800 million primers that aren't available for reloaders. 

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26 minutes ago, Doc Shapiro said:

There ain't SH** available here. 

 

It's more than transportation.  There's a huge demand.  There have been over 8 million new gun owners over the last 18 months or so.  If each one bought 100 rounds, that's 800 million primers that aren't available for reloaders. 

Curious what the average year brings in "new gun owners".

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I telephoned every gun store within 200 miles yesterday (that's a lot of stores) and there was zilch, nothing, yada in any but two very small shops out West of me here on the East coast  and I ended up doing a nice long return drive and scored 10,000 in total Federal small rifle primers (first time to ever use them before) and 4 lbs of Red Dot and 4lbs of Green dot.

 

All the shop owners literally laughed when I asked for powder and primers........asking when it looks like stock will be coming in the answer was generally "How long is a piece of string" and with the addition that when it does start to flow in the first batch(s) will be stockpiled and hoarded which will make it longer for a lot of folks to get their hands on any. 

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Around my area...things are so scarce that a pretty large distributor just closed up shop. His email to the dealers stated that due to the unavailability of product and the amount of people he had on the payroll...he could no longer keep the doors open.

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It isn’t just ammo. I work in the commercial HVAC field. Some parts are in short supply. One of my orders won’t ship until January. I ordered three new units and their ship date keeps getting pushed back. It went from August to October to late December. On one part I quoted I called the factory to get availability. There was 37 in stock (not a high demand part). Three days later the customer sent a PO and the warehouse had sold out and we had to wait three weeks for the back order. The factory is rationing certain control boards because we as a company can’t get the chips required. 
 

As said in the movie Brother, where for art thou? We live in a geological oddity. We live two months from every where!

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This seems to have been a "thing" since the mid-90's. Usually spurred on by a new administration, either state or federal. The 'demic of 2011 didn't really ease off until late 2018. Around 2017 I was paying $45 a brick for Aguila super extra and happy to get it. 9 was $20/50, 5.56 anywhere from $12 to $20 depending. 38 was $24/50. By early 2019 things had pretty much stabilized and continued to improve.

Then this crap happened and I'm back to paying $60 a brick for Federal 22lr.

I no longer discount "conspiracy theories" out of hand.  The most trusted source in news....ain't. y'all see, I'm sure so no need to discuss any of that. There's a REASON people have been buying like there's tomorrow, LOL. 29 million was the last NICS figure I saw I think, around july which was year to date. This year will top last year like last year did to the year before.

People SEE.

 

So here's your rough timeline;

2012 to 2019 as a baseline. This started mid 2020 so that puts us around 2027. Joy.

 

At least for me, the shops around me are well stocked with irons and accessories of all types at the moment. My main pusher LOL, has plenty of ammunition of all calibers. If you're looking for CAS loads, I hope you reload because ever'body is making FMJ or HP's at the moment. Production of components mainly goes to the ammo lines first but there is some coming out, more every day.

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10 minutes ago, Cholla said:

It isn’t just ammo. I work in the commercial HVAC field. Some parts are in short supply. One of my orders won’t ship until January. I ordered three new units and their ship date keeps getting pushed back. It went from August to October to late December. On one part I quoted I called the factory to get availability. There was 37 in stock (not a high demand part). Three days later the customer sent a PO and the warehouse had sold out and we had to wait three weeks for the back order. The factory is rationing certain control boards because we as a company can’t get the chips required. 
 

As said in the movie Brother, where for art thou? We live in a geological oddity. We live two months from every where!

Yes. the supply issues that started late 2019/early 20 have continued. Partly demand, partly personnel issues due to you-know-what partly monkey wrenches tossed into the "system" by the usual suspects because they have an agenda. Apparently.

 

I have been attempting to verify the "news" reports on international shipping just because there's open source data on ships available and I'm curious. The LA port is running. Appears they are using about half to 2/3 the available dock space. No idea why but I can guess. There are anywhere from 40 to 60 container ships "parked" off shore. It appears it takes a couple three days to unload a ship. New ones replace unloaded ones approximately 9 per day. In short, don't trust what the MSM or gubbermint says. Go look.

 

I don't know how these figures relate to the before time. I do know that lately, truck traffic has increased on I-10 from west coast to Phoenix. This week there was at least triple the number of semitrailer traffic.

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Its really just basic economics.  The scarcer things become, the greater their value.  You, me, and all of the manufacturers and vendors know that.  We've seen it in the past with inflated pricing of  petroleum, platinum, sugar, toilet paper, pet food and many other commodities. 

The supply chain businesses can be expected to manage their production rate to maximize profit earnings for investors.  That is a CEO'S chief responsibility. 

So as consumers,  expect their products to become scarce until prices rise to the point of market intolerance.   

But don't expect them to ever return to pre "shortage" levels.  Nobody's Business Plan is going to call for reducing profitability to please their consumers.  And they know the current Administration isn't going to intervene in order to assure primers and powder remain available to gun owners.  

 

All we can do is wait, watch and buy when available and acceptably priced -----and help each other find what little is out there.  

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3 minutes ago, Dusty Devil Dale said:

 And they know the current Administration isn't going to intervene in order to assure primers and powder remain available to gun owners.  

 

The current administration is doing all it can to hinder production and transportation of essentially all essential goods.
For example, they banned bringing in some of the most popular imported ammunition and paid people to not work.
 

Quote

 

 All we can do is wait, watch and buy when available and acceptably priced -----and help each other find what little is out there.  

 

Agreed.

 

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I listened to an interview with a customs liaison for some company in Erie, PA a few weeks ago. She said that it used to cost about $2,500 for a container (with whatever goods inside not included) and now the same container costs $15,000 plus. Which is why Costco and others are leasing their own cargo ships. The LA port is now working 24 hours. Things are improving. But it’s gonna take some time.  
 

I have (as a vendor) never run out of bullets, smokeless Powder or  black powder substitute. (My website is showing all out of stock to protect my inventory for my customers and not the hoarders).  I still have smokeless powder - and I had to pay dearly for it however, I was not gonna let my customers be out of powder. (I don’t ship powder except for APP).  Primers are the ONLY thing I don’t get directly from the manufacturer and I’m at our distributors mercy. They’re “out there” but they are an allocated item.  I don’t have any clout to get an allocation. 
 

I don’t think there’s some conspiracy - this is, as someone said, economics and the result of decades of “JIT - just in time inventory”.  When Donald Trump was elected, the industry experienced the Trump Slump - Federal (and others) laid off 100s of employees and it’s gonna take a while to get back up. They’re NOT gonna add production lines and then have to lay off people again… just like the 22s a few years ago - a low profit item that was not worth investing in additional production lines. - for those of you wondering where I am getting this it was an interview with Federal CEO… I’ll see if I can find it. 
 

Hugs!

Scarlett

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We talked with someone in the trucking industry and they are slammed as well. Since she leaned left she would not discuss all causes, but this has been a growing problem since 2008.


At that time,. they stopped building rail cars and shipping cartons and we have never fully recovered.  Truckers are mostly owner/operators and work independently and go where they get the best deal and do not have to dead-head.  So even trucking has almost doubled in time for relatively remote areas - and even fairly large cities.  And the cost has gone up.

Plus the percentage of men and women in prime of life that are not working has continued to decline.  Of course covid slowed us, but the covid lock down encouraged laying out -  plus paying to stay home got some people addicted.

 

And many people have actually awakened (versus being "woke" or in a trance).  They now know they are now on their own for so much more in life - including self defense, stock piling essential needs such as food, ammo, etc.

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On 10/30/2021 at 8:45 AM, Cholla said:

It isn’t just ammo. I work in the commercial HVAC field. Some parts are in short supply. One of my orders won’t ship until January. I ordered three new units and their ship date keeps getting pushed back. It went from August to October to late December. On one part I quoted I called the factory to get availability. There was 37 in stock (not a high demand part). Three days later the customer sent a PO and the warehouse had sold out and we had to wait three weeks for the back order. The factory is rationing certain control boards because we as a company can’t get the chips required. 
 

As said in the movie Brother, where for art thou? We live in a geological oddity. We live two months from every where!

I hear you! The end of last March we had a gas fireplace insert installed which we ran for about 3 weeks and then shut it down for the summer. Beginning of September the hurricane remnant passed by with torrential rain with some water getting down the chimney which then shorted out the master control module. Had the tech department come out and they said they had none in stock, but had some on order. That was two months ago. Even online everyplace I could find the module was out of stock. It's getting colder out every passing day and all I have at the moment is a $4K fireplace ornament. I've never seen anything so wide spread like this in my time that's for sure.

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The last gun show I was at a few weeks ago was pretty small. there was a candy table, two knife tables, a lady selling homemade candles, a guy selling t shirts and other junk. It was more like a flea market than a gun show. There were about 6-7 actual gun dealers with nothing but black guns!

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On 10/30/2021 at 8:45 AM, Cholla said:

It isn’t just ammo. I work in the commercial HVAC field. Some parts are in short supply. One of my orders won’t ship until January. I ordered three new units and their ship date keeps getting pushed back. It went from August to October to late December. On one part I quoted I called the factory to get availability. There was 37 in stock (not a high demand part). Three days later the customer sent a PO and the warehouse had sold out and we had to wait three weeks for the back order. The factory is rationing certain control boards because we as a company can’t get the chips required. 
 

As said in the movie Brother, where for art thou? We live in a geological oddity. We live two months from every where!

Cholla,

 

Auto correct got you. It's a geographical oddity.  And it may really be 6, not 2 months from everywhere.

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KWhile at my local gun range, I noticed many folks that are shooting reloaded ammunition, people I wouldn't have expected. My guess is, that along with shortages across the board on all items, and many new gun owners, we are also contending with many new reloaders. For myself I will buy a 1,000 primers when they are available to keep my supply from dwindling, I suspect many of us do the same because of the uncertainty of when in the future things will become readily available. I believe it will be years, before we see a regular supply of components that has caught up with the demand that we are currently seeing. 

 

Over the last few years, new reloading presses and dies have been hard to come by. If in fact we have more reloaders to contend with, this group started at a time of high prices and shortages. Their cost perspective will be the cost they started at for components.  

 

Tully

 

 

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Local big box sporting goods had a surprising large inventory of ammo 2 weeks ago.  Almost all major handgun calibers were in stock.  Lots of 9mm and 223.  Decent supply of handgun brass.   No primers, some powder.   Looked like a container of Vhitavori had just arrived as they had a lot of it and at more than one store.  Mostly pistol burn rates.   Not back to normal, but it looks like they are getting caught up on the 9 and 223.  

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Definitely not just a sporting goods issue.

 

I spend a part of each day helping our purchasing/sourcing department (everybody always comes to the engineers eventually) try to find substitutes for components and materials that up until the last year were never an issue.  Just after covid hit in 2020 (and not to blame Covid, but just using it as a time reference) prices started going up on the items we use but they could still be had just at the rising prices.  Now, it is a daily hunt for some of those items, and redesigning product to use alternate components that are not direct drop-ins.

 

Not a good time to be in manufacturing... we are having a banner year, but just simply cant always get the materials we need to fill all the orders.

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I make almost a daily circuit looking for stuff.  Today for the first time in well over a year Sportsman's Warehouse acutally had and entire aisle set aside for ammo.  They have had batches of various calibers and something has always been on the shelf the past several weeks but this is the most so far.  Still no primers and no powder.  They had shotgun shells but limit still two boxes.  No sales by the case.

IMG_1990.jpg

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Somebody bought the 28-gauge, .280 Rem Ackley Improved and .220 Swift ammo that was remaining on the shelves at a local big-box sporting goods store.

 

It is more than ammo.  Industrial steel has gone from $.45 to $1.55 per pound since May 2020, if you buy it at all.

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On 10/29/2021 at 9:19 PM, Larsen E. Pettifogger, SASS #32933 said:

Shelves are full to overflowing.  Federal primers are $25.00 per thousand no limit.  8 pound kegs of Clays powder is $75.00.  What other fantasies do you want to hear?

If I get to live in a fantasy world I’m not going to waste it on cheap powder and primers :) 

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As folks here have said, lots of stuff is hard to get. I ordered a 4.0 liter long block for my Ford Ranger August 19th; still waiting for it to ship...

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Gun shops here for plenty powder, bullets...primers are a little scarce(75$ per 1k when they got it)..nope. powder is also being gauged. RL-7 $57.00...nope..ammo plenty, still pricey but not horrible. 9mm,45 and popular stuff. Hard to find 10 gauge

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If you can get primers for less than .10 each delivered I suggest you buy as many as you can. I think it's only going to go up from there. 

 

There was a brief period several weeks ago where you could get them for less than that, but I think the best we can hope for going forward is .07 each plus hazmat and shipping with limits on purchase quantities. 

 

Had my timing been better I could have purchased 2K federal small pistol at Midway today, but I missed it. 

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On 11/3/2021 at 10:56 AM, Larsen E. Pettifogger, SASS #32933 said:

I make almost a daily circuit looking for stuff.  Today for the first time in well over a year Sportsman's Warehouse acutally had and entire aisle set aside for ammo.  They have had batches of various calibers and something has always been on the shelf the past several weeks but this is the most so far.  Still no primers and no powder.  They had shotgun shells but limit still two boxes.  No sales by the case.

IMG_1990.jpg

 

@Larsen E. Pettifogger, SASS #32933

 

Is that usual in the US for customers to be able to 'fondle' the ammo? In Australia all the ammo is behind glass or behind the counter.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Buckshot Bear said:

 

@Larsen E. Pettifogger, SASS #32933

 

Is that usual in the US for customers to be able to 'fondle' the ammo? In Australia all the ammo is behind glass or behind the counter.

 

 

In a small store like a local hardware store, the ammo is likely in a glass cabinet. Maybe 5 to 10 boxes of popular self defense ammo.

 

For the bigger retailers they just roll pallets onto the floor and put a sign on the top.

 

And for smaller quantities of particular calibers, 3 to 5 racks of shelves (like the picture above)  is not uncommon.

 

But spray paint is locked up in wire mesh cages almost everywhere. Not because of huffing (drug abuse) but because of graffiti.

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4 hours ago, John Kloehr said:

In a small store like a local hardware store, the ammo is likely in a glass cabinet. Maybe 5 to 10 boxes of popular self defense ammo.

 

For the bigger retailers they just roll pallets onto the floor and put a sign on the top.

 

And for smaller quantities of particular calibers, 3 to 5 racks of shelves (like the picture above)  is not uncommon.

 

But spray paint is locked up in wire mesh cages almost everywhere. Not because of huffing (drug abuse) but because of graffiti.

 

Yep spray paint is locked up in wire cages here as well.

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