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FBI Report Proves Media Greatly “Fudged” Mass-Murder Numbers


Charlie T Waite

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There has been a concerted effort by anti-gun advocates over the past few years to convince Americans that the number of “mass shootings” in the United States has skyrocketed.

“Mass shootings in Florida increased to 34 in 2020 from 15 the year before, while nationally mass shootings jumped nearly 50 percent during a pandemic with crippling unemployment, violent protests and idle youth,” reads the beginning of a story in the Tallahassee Democrat, which was regurgitated in many other states using numbers from each respective state.

In fact, many outlets would have you believe that there is more than one “mass shooting” every single day in our nation! Just this spring, Forbes.com had a headline saying just that: “More Than One Mass Shooting Per Day Has Occurred In 2021.” The article leads off, “The U.S. has averaged more than one mass shooting a day this year, continuing an upward trend since researchers began thoroughly tracking the subject following the shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary.”

Sounds scary, right?

Much of the fury is driven by a website called the Gun Violence Archive (GVA), which claims to be reporting “evidence-based” research. But there is a startling discrepancy when “mass shooting” figures from the oft-quoted GVA are compared with those reported by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI).

The GVA lists the following mass shooting totals for the four-year period ending in 2019: 382 in 2016, 346 in 2017, 337 in 2018 and 417 in 2019. The FBI, on the other hand, lists only 20 in 2016, 31 in 2017, 30 in 2018, 30 in 2019 and 40 in 2020 (as this was being written, the GVA didn’t include 2020 numbers).

In fact, the FBI 20-year review on “Active Shooters Incidents” (ASI) lists a total of only 333 from 2000 to 2019. That’s fewer “mass shootings” in 20 years than the GVA and many in the media claim occur every year!

So, what gives? Part of the difference is in definitions. The GVA “uses a purely statistical threshold to define mass shooting based only on the numeric value of four or more shot or killed, not including the shooter.” However, the FBI categorizes these crimes as ASIs, and defines them to include shootings in public places, those occurring at more than one location, those where the murderer’s actions were not the result of another criminal act, those resulting in a mass killing, those indicating apparent spontaneity by the shooter, those where the shooter appeared to methodically search for potential victims, and killers who appeared focused on harming people, not buildings or objects.

When most people think of mass murderers, they are likely picturing in their minds the kind of killings enumerated in the FBI report. They probably envision a crazed attacker entering a grocery store or school building, trying to create as much mayhem as possible, then killing themselves before police can capture them. And the media—whether knowingly or not—allows the public to believe that is the kind of incident to which they are referring when they claim there’s a mass-murder event every day.

One of the major difference in the GVA and FBI figures is in what the FBI doesn’t count, and that’s where the GVA figures reported by the media become so misleading. The FBI doesn’t count killings involving gang and drug violence—arguably the two biggest causes of violence in the country; in fact, a quick browse through the GVA reveals page after page of drug- and gang-related shootings, most occurring on big-city streets in the early morning hours. Incidentally, the GVA even counts self-defense episodes in its total.

So, were mass-murder events up from 2019 to 2020? The short answer is yes, as, according to the FBI, the number climbed from 30 to 40. But the “more than one mass shooting a day” narrative isn’t anywhere close to reality.

Bear in mind, however, that even if FBI reports may appear to be more accurate than the GVA, there are still problems with FBI accuracy. Especially as it relates to instances where lawfully armed citizens helped to end these ASIs.

It is true, however, as researcher John Lott pointed out a few years ago, that about “98 percent of the mass public shootings in the U.S. since at least 1950 have occurred in ‘gun-free zones,’ places where general citizens aren’t allowed to defend themselves.”

Along with an honest, accurate accounting of mass shootings, that’s another bit of information you will rarely, if ever, see mentioned in media reports on violent crime in America.

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