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The Coming Recession in Construction


bgavin

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We stopped by Home Depot today.
I needed Leviton receptacles and Wrongway was shopping for paint for her She-Cave.

Hoooeee momma... sheet goods are priced through the roof.
$69 for a sheet of 7/16" OSB (used to be $8).
$44 for a sheet of 3/4" MDF (not particle board) that I use to prototype loudspeaker cabinets.
Underlayment just under $100 per sheet.

 

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All lumber is out of sight.

Would hate to be trying to build a new house right now.

Building cost would be up to much to try it.

But they are still building like crazy around here. 

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3 minutes ago, Buffalo Bill Mathewson, 37826 said:

If you are in the middle of building a house what do you do?

Go deeper and deeper in debt.

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Talked to a realtor today.  Lots of cancelled builds around here due to increased material cost.  Construction workers are in such a shortage around here that the contractors are still busy.  Houses are selling by word of mouth before the realtors list them or within a week of listing for asking or a premium price.  

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I was in Alaska last week.  Those folks reported Canadian lumber mills completely full of finished board feet to the point they had to take up parking lot space in some...never had higher finished inventories is what they said.  They indicated this shortage is an orchestrated response to the keystone cancellation, going to make the US pay.  
 

 

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Interesting that lumber and ammo are all marked up at nearly the same percentages. Ammo is starting to come down and more becomes available every day. The same will happen with lumber and other things. 

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i got toothpicks , but i need a bit of lumber for repairs this summer - seems prices have doubled and dealers are operating on allocations based on past performance in buying and 'paying' , things are a bit in a turmoil 

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2x4x8' southern yellow pine was $2.38 last spring, now is $6.15, if you buy it.

Our stupid local govmint just passed a bill to build multi-family apartments for low-income housing.  Their budget is probably based on old prices.

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12 hours ago, JD Lud said:

I was in Alaska last week.  Those folks reported Canadian lumber mills completely full of finished board feet to the point they had to take up parking lot space in some...never had higher finished inventories is what they said.  They indicated this shortage is an orchestrated response to the keystone cancellation, going to make the US pay.  
 

 

I doubt if one issue is related to the other

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One of my buds is a surveyor.
He says they are the first to go unemployed when the economy is turning down.
They are the first to go back to work, when the economy starts to turn up.

Considering the price of materials yesterday, I was amazed to see how CROWDED the Home Depot store was.
I saw lots of people in line, and with carts, but nobody with sheet goods.

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I need to re-do the kitchen subfloor.. it's only 200 sq ft.
I'm far more concerned about what this will do to the price of kitchen cabinets.

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in part of CA they build a few whole new towns that used to be ranch land 

low interest rates have houses selling  fast 

it has made for alot more work for security guard for all the wood 

when I was a carpenter in the 80s  some one hot wired the job site forklift and stole 2 units of plywood but that was in Oakland 

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We here in Canada are also experiencing greatly increased lumber costs, much the same as yours in the US.

It is reported to be the result of the pandemic, that our entire supply chain has been disrupted.

If an option, I would recommend holding off or delaying any building projects involving the use of lumber, until we get our vaccinations done and start producing again.

We are at around 50% first jab in the arm right now and looking at the fall for "Herd Immunity".

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7 hours ago, Ezra Hawthorne said:


Sounds like it's time to gather up a posse for a modern day Great Train Robbery. ;)

Several years back we had a derailment about 5 miles east of our house. 8 cars full of lumber. They salvaged all the sheet goods. The dimensional lumber went to the landfill. People offered to clean it up, and they hired a crew to cut it up and haul it off. Liability!

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23 hours ago, Anvil Al #59168 said:

All lumber is out of sight.

Would hate to be trying to build a new house right now....

 

True but a fantastic time to sell.  Now if I could just get Mrs Duncan to stop chasing me with that cast iron skillet and listen to reason...

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We have done some remodeling around the house the past six months and watched the price of 2x4's steadily rise from project to project. Last week I picked up some steel edging last week as I have started redoing some rock area in the front and was going to replace the old stuff that was put in 25 years ago...stuff ran $19.95 for an 8 foot section and when you overlapped the sections, you actually got 7.3 feet out of it. Needed an additional special stake to tie in two pieces at the overlap...well, I was looking at $130 for the first 29 feet and I had a long way to go. By the next morning, I decided to return the stuff I bought and just stick with reusing the old stuff. Gas is up just over 30% since last December here...picked up some 5.7x28mm ammo for my son just today and that stuff was up to $42. Even 9mm is expensive. I really don't think the prices are going to go back down to the range of where they were back pre-covid: too much money printing. 

 

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I've said before that we need a good depression to give people perspective. I think we hired just the people to do it.

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On 5/23/2021 at 9:02 PM, JD Lud said:

I was in Alaska last week.  Those folks reported Canadian lumber mills completely full of finished board feet to the point they had to take up parking lot space in some...never had higher finished inventories is what they said.  They indicated this shortage is an orchestrated response to the keystone cancellation, going to make the US pay.  
 

 

It's more than Keystone.  The Commerce Department with the US lumber producers cheering, are planning to make it worse.  Take a read:
https://canada.constructconnect.com/dcn/news/economic/2021/05/u-s-moves-to-double-tariffs-on-canadian-softwood-lumber-imports

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43 minutes ago, Ozark Shark said:

It's more than Keystone.  The Commerce Department with the US lumber producers cheering, are planning to make it worse.  Take a read:
https://canada.constructconnect.com/dcn/news/economic/2021/05/u-s-moves-to-double-tariffs-on-canadian-softwood-lumber-imports

 

WHAT U S lumber producers...?  Are there any left?  I sincerely hope there are, somewhere...  :(

 

California used to be a major lumber producing state.  Not so much, any more... mostly because of that nasty "p" word.  [Politics]

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Gasoline prices rising(of course they always do going on Memorial Day).  Paid $3.349 for 87 octane today. Two weeks ago is was "only" $3.199!  That will also add to the price of transporting lumber, food and anything else that has to go from there to here! :angry:

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