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Scarce Ammo and Reloading Supplies is Going to Get Even Worse ...


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FBI background checks for gun buyers soar by 36% to a record 4.7 MILLION in March

 

 

 

 

Edited by John Boy
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40 minutes ago, LawMan Mark, SASS #57095L said:

On top of that, Winchester and several other ammo/component manufacturers have announced 5-25% price increases.

Do you have a link to that announcement? 

OLG 

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Just now, The Original Lumpy Gritz said:

Do you have a link to that announcement? 

OLG 

https://www.internationalsportsman.com/winchester-announces-2021-price-increases-on-ammunition-and-reloading-supplies/

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Posted (edited)

Vista Outdoors has an answer for all of their owned companies ...   During this year we have seen significant increases in raw material prices such as copper, zinc, and lead. Additionally, increases in labor and health care have exceeded our projections as the COVID-19 pandemic has affected us all. 
 

Hello?   https://www.dailymetalprice.com/  

Edited by John Boy
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25% increase is not a show stopper as long as the supplies are available. I don't know anyone that would/will let that stop them. IMO the days of going through a thousand round a month are behind us. Even though I still have stock I've cut my shooting in half. I will no longer shoot both Sat and Sun at local matches. IMO they should go back to one day. IN MY OPINION! 

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5-25% increase from pre-covid  prices would be doable for me. If we're talking about those increases after a doubling of prices, that's something else. Like many, I would like to see an easing of the drought.

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25 minutes ago, Snakebite said:

 

25% increase is not a show stopper as long as the supplies are available. I don't know anyone that would/will let that stop them. IMO the days of going through a thousand round a month are behind us. Even though I still have stock I've cut my shooting in half. I will no longer shoot both Sat and Sun at local matches. IMO they should go back to one day. IN MY OPINION! 

Agree SB.  I do much less live practice than in the past but push to more dry firing to aid in transition and target order prep.  I do try to keep good flow of monthly match attendance for actual live ammo use, 

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Posted (edited)

Vista is blowing smoke they need to increase prices ... https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/vista-outdoor-announces-record-fy21-second-quarter-operating-results-301166959.html 

 

Outlook for Fiscal Year 2021 Third Quarter

"Our focus on e-commerce was well timed and well executed as this channel grew more than 100% during the quarter," said Sudhanshu Priyadarshi, Vista Outdoor Chief Financial Officer. "E-commerce at 22% of YTD sales contributed to the healthy upswing on the EBIT margin to 13.5% as well as superior growth in YTD free cash flow to $190 million. With the balance sheet now in excellent shape, we can move to deploying our capital to further fund our future growth including innovation and select tuck-in acquisitions, like Remington."

Based on results to date, the current market environment and typical seasonality, Vista Outdoor's outlook for third quarter Fiscal Year 2021, which includes Remington, is as follows:

  • Sales in a range of $510 million to $530 million
  • Earnings per Share in a range of $0.55 to $0.65
Edited by John Boy
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Copper is up 80% and other raw materials are up also. Thant's almost double in price. Pretty good jump across the board. Costs go up, price goes up. Basic economics.

Unlike the Infrastructure Bill and Tax Increases proposed by Biden.  "did I say that?"

 

JM

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I think we should be careful perpetuating assumptions that could cause the hoarding to continue or get worse. Sure, we can see a lot of transfers were completed, and it's no surprise component prices are going up, but neither of these things mean the shortages will certainly get worse.

 

If we avoid sensationalizing this news, we can reduce fear mongering, which may help the hoarders relax. I have a close personal friend who has been buying up any ammo he can find at normal prices "just in case" he ever gets a firearm chambered in that round. Yes, he is definitely part of the problem. Let's help him and others like him understand they don't need to buy everything they can "just in case" -- the supply will return.


This will pass, and most of us will soon be able to continue shooting as much as we want.

 

If anything, the increased gun sales and prices should be good news for the 2A as it indicates many Americans wish to continue (or start) enjoying firearms-related recreation -- now more than ever.

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12 minutes ago, C.N. Double said:

 

 

If anything, the increased gun sales and prices should be good news for the 2A as it indicates many Americans wish to continue (or start) enjoying firearms-related recreation -- now more than ever.

This could eventually work in the consumers favor. With more people enjoying the sport, sooner or later other manufacturers are gonna want to get in on the profits, which in turn causes prices to come down when more businesses compete for our dollar. 

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Suppliers of anything related to firearms are experiencing cost increases. Overtime to increase production, Healthcare insurance will go up, raw materials to final product. They are anticipating higher taxes and if I was on the board of directors I'd say raise our prices to reflect the increased demand and profit potential. Any good management of business would do that. Market slows down, lower prices....maybe.

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I’m looking forward to a future date when all these new first time gun owners will be thinking “why do I need this gun, I don’t shoot it, I really don’t like it, it’s dangerous, I think I’ll sell it.”  I’ll be looking for some bargains possibly.

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Ammo and component manufacturers are not stupid. They’re thinking why should we give away our products that are being marked up by retailers and then severely marked up by scalpers and that the consumer is still willing to buy. Until they get to a point that their products are sitting unsold on the shelves the sky's the limit. Kinda of like when the airlines realized that they could generate millions of dollars of revenue by nickel and dimeing the flying public by charging extra for what used to be included in the cost of a ticket.

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7 hours ago, The Original Lumpy Gritz said:

So glad I stocked up big time,  when I first heard Sleazy Joe was run'n for POTUS 

OLG 

Seems like respect for office and that is about it...

 

Texas Lizard

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4 hours ago, C.N. Double said:

 

If anything, the increased gun sales and prices should be good news for the 2A as it indicates many Americans wish to continue (or start) enjoying firearms-related recreation -- now more than ever.

Or a strong lack of trust....

 

Texas Lizard

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I'm still reeling over the news that the FBI are doing backgrounds checks on gun-buyers...   I have to have 2 background checks done on me this year that're job related.  Last time I bought a gun the dealer called the local LE office and they ran me thru NCIC.  Took longer to key in the phone number than to get the "go-ahead".  Yes... the NCIC is an FBI data base, but it ain't a background check.  

 

And up 36% of what?  Total NCIC inquiries...  or...  even better, is that 4.7 over a month, a quarter, a year?   That is nearly re-arming ALL of our armed forces active duty personnel with 3 new guns...   Sounds more like someone WANTS to make the numbers sound alarming.  

 

As for possible price increases... 5-25% ain't entirely out of line, especially when the spokesperson hasn't a clue what goofball policies likely to come out of Wash DC are going to effect domestic or foreign markets.  Why gasoline has spiked more'n 50% since the election.   And yet that big ball of fire is still above the horizon; and I'll bet anyone a thousand primers that it will be back in the sky tomorrow!   (BTW, if I lose the bet, I'm paying off with used primers!  And if I win, you can pay me off with the same...   I know how to recycle 'em)!  Yep, the sky is falling

Edited by Griff
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Hey Griff, I'll take that bet!  But only because I wasn't sure what to do with my spent primers.  :)

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I've had Hornady XTP in 240 grains, 44 mag on my wish list for a long time.
For a brief moment, Midway had some in stock.
I picked up 200 count, just for stock.. $0.465 each, shipped.

But.. a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush...
I'd probably do the same for an 8lb tub of H4895

I've seen two small news articles on how shipping problems in Brazil affects their ability to ship 20% of the world's pulp for paper products.
IMO, these are little red flags of things to come.

Edited by bgavin
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On 4/2/2021 at 1:12 PM, C.N. Double said:

 

 

If anything, the increased gun sales and prices should be good news for the 2A as it indicates many Americans wish to continue (or start) enjoying firearms-related recreation -- now more than ever.

 

5.6 million more people that will be mad if 2A is stamped on.

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On 4/2/2021 at 5:38 PM, Abilene, SASS # 27489 said:

Hey Griff, I'll take that bet!  But only because I wasn't sure what to do with my spent primers.  :)

Feel free to ship those used primers any time.... :ph34r:

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On 4/2/2021 at 1:29 PM, doc roy l. pain said:

This could eventually work in the consumers favor. With more people enjoying the sport, sooner or later other manufacturers are gonna want to get in on the profits, which in turn causes prices to come down when more businesses compete for our dollar. 

+ 10000

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Went to a large gun store here in MN after the first CAS match of the season. They had bottles of Trail Boss, one to a customer.  556 ammo was limited to 200 rounds per customer.  Not tons of them but some stuff is starting to become available.  Prices were a little higher than the past.

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On 4/2/2021 at 9:33 AM, The Original Lumpy Gritz said:

And they will all do it again after the democrats increase all of the corporate tax rates 

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7 hours ago, Buckshot Bob said:

And they will all do it again after the democrats increase all of the corporate tax rates 

Which will suppress demand; because, of the RECESSION that follows shortly after the corporate tax increase goes into effect

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8 minutes ago, J.D. Daily said:

Which will suppress demand; because, of the RECESSION that follows shortly after the corporate tax increase goes into effect

Maybe if there’s not still riots going on all over the country or another plandemic. Any way you cut it increased taxes isn’t a great solution 

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I don't think this huge increase in gun sales has anything to do with Shooting Sports. It is coming from a pure and simple fear factor by people that here to for have never been truly concerned. 

Edited by Snakebite
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On 4/2/2021 at 8:21 AM, Loophole LaRue, SASS #51438 said:

 

Any break-down between new buyers and repeats?

 

LL

Honestly if they are following the law and not maintaining records they shouldn’t know right? Although I don’t believe for a second they are not maintaining records 

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12 hours ago, Snakebite said:

I don't think this huge increase in gun sales has anything to do with Shooting Sports. It is coming from a pure and simple fear factor by people that here to for have never been truly concerned. 

 

Reminds me somewhat of the gas crunch in the mid-late '70s.  Anybody else remember the "Odd/Even" days where you could only buy gas on odd or even numbered days based on the last digit of your tag number?  While there was an issue with some reduction in supply, I still believe that half the problem was that everyone in the country kept every vehicle they owned completely full.

 

My Dad had a relatively long commute to work back then and I was working and also in college.  We had two vehicles, one with even tags and one with odd tags, plus an old 3/4 ton truck.  My Dad drove the "Off Day" vehicle to work and my "Task Du Jour" was to take the "On Day" vehicle to school and make sure it was 100% full when I brought it home that evening.  All of my non-school driving was restricted to the Truck, which got about 8 MPG on a good day, going down hill, with a tail-wind.  :blink:

 

If everyone had not been panic buying and driving around with full tanks all the time, the problem would have been much less and we would not have had to deal with that foolishness.  I believe to some extent, that is what we are dealing with here.  While certainly there is a large demand at the present time, and for a great many reasons, there is also a lot of hoarding going on that is just exacerbating the situation.  As I tell folks, it doesn't matter if you have 1 million primers, 1 million bullets, and 10 thousand pounds of powder, if you are the only one, then Cowboy shooting won't be fun!

 

Make sure you have enough to get you through for this year and next, and then let someone who can't get any have some.  If you have 10 years worth in your basement, sell some to a pard who has none so we can all play.

 

soapbox.jpg.8ca9a0c6c5a8fc454b5f5f6279bd5a96.jpg

 

 

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We were living on Cape Cod at the time... I remember the gas lines very well.
The news has a headline this AM that Kimberly-Clark is raising paper products by up to 10%.
They cite the problems with raw materials... Brazil provides 20% of the world's pulp supply for paper products.
The pandemic has created huge shipping problems both obtaining and shipping containers of goods.

The news also cites a shortage of housing and a huge influx of investor-driven housing bought for rental and flipping.
The young couple is now priced out of the first-time home buying market.
IMO, the ammo shortage is just another part of the bigger picture.
 

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