John Boy Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 i watched the convincing Federal video about working 24x7 to try to supply loaded ammunition estimated to need 700,000,000 rounds for 7 million new shooters ... Folks he is blowing smoke! * Vista Outdoors owns all the companies that make ammunition and primers * The ammunition companies owned by Vita have military and Federal contracts for ammunition * These ammunition companies plus other ammo companies that make box store ammo need primers to make loaded rounds * That's where the primers are going ... for existing ammo contracts, to supply other ammo vendors and as he said to supply 700,000,000 rounds for new shooters. New shooters - complaining to gun manufactures there's no ammo? Never gonna happen Not every shooter being supplied under existing contracts and box store purchases .... there are many existing reloaders that shoot more than 2 boxes * There are many existing box store and new shooters .... switching over to reloading * This is indicative of the masses of box store shooters switching to reloading ... https://www.midsouthshooterssupply.com/dept/reloading/reloading-presses/press-kits * Vista Outdoors has US reloaders at the very end and will continue to have US there at the end of the supply chain It's going to be a long dry period of many months before reloading shooters are put into the productions and sale of primers only. And Vista Outdoors doesn't give a 'fat rat's ..." because they are making MUCH MORE revenue producing ammunition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoss Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 making MUCH MORE revenue producing ammunition thats it in a nutshell. Until demand for ammo eases, components, especially primers will be in short supply. If you were selling ammo would you rather make .01 on a primer if .10 on a loaded round? (May not be that simple, but rest assured they make much more on ready to shoot ammo than they do on components) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Original Lumpy Gritz Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 To say nut'n about the larger military caliber ammo they load like 40mm and bigger. Lots of BS in that video. OLG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sedalia Dave Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Keep in mind that not just anyone can work on the primer manufacturing line. If anyone on that line tests positive for the china flu they have to shut down that part of the line for cleaning and they they gave to either find a backup operator or wait till that person returns to work. My company has instituted a policy that if you are exposed to another person that tests positive for Covid you are put on sick leave for 10 days and cannot come back to work till you have tested negative. Test has to be done no earlier than the 8th day after exposure. If you cohabitate with the individual it is 10 days after they no longer test positive before you return to work. This sounds extreme but the policy has drastically cut down on infections where I work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocWard Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 I'm not sure where the "smoke" or the "BS" comes from. Yep, no doubt that primers are going to remain in short supply. I don't recall him saying "we're producing all the primers we can. He said they're producing all the ammo of different types they can. Face it, components of all sorts are likely to remain in short supply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raylan Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Don't think there is lying going on, this has happened before. I know people are frustrated, I am too, but there is a huge increase in demand for ammo and the manufacturers don't have the capacity to keep up with the demand. New shooters and existing shooters are panic buying all the ammo that can be produced. That means that the components for reloaders are going to be in even more short supply as of course the available components are being pushed into making completed ammunition. Reloaders are also panic buying and ensuring the shortages will continue for the forseeable future. It's the toilet paper shortage on steroids as the ammunition manufacturers have even less capacity to keep up with demand. OMG there's a shortage of ammo and components - I need to buy all I can whenever it's available - which means the shortage continues and people continue to panic because there is continued shortage. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
watab kid Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 so - the china flue give the foreign markets an advantage in supplying our components ?? just askin , Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raylan Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 Other countries like Canada are getting regular shipments too, I would imagine, why would US companies want to completely abandon all their foriegn markets? If they did then they would have to start over when this panic is over and completely rebuild their distributers and customer base that they abandoned. The reason they are available in Canada for example is because there is no massive Canadian panic buying of ammo and components in Canada. Americans who make up by far the largest bulk of buyers have been panic buying guns, ammo, and components because of the election and violence in the cities. Once that created a shortage, people then kept buying in a panic anything they find available because there is a shortage. Same thing happened with toilet paper earlier this year, people bought all the toilet paper on the shelves in a panic, then other people went to buy toilet paper and found it all sold out, so then whenever they found any for sale they grabbed up as much as they could perpetuating the shortage. I don't recall for sure but I don't think the great toilet paper shortage was a worldwide thing. Were toilet paper companies creating a shortage, not producing it or only selling to countries outside the US? No in fact they were increasing production and for a time people were still buying every roll in sight. The ammo industry is smaller and more specialized than the toilet paper industry, they can easily be overwhelmed by demand in a panic and the panic goes on and on and on and on as people continue to buy out everything they can get their hands on or they see thus perpetuating the shortages and panic buying. Last time this happened after Sandy Hook it was 2 or 3 years until I could walk into a store and buy a 500 round brick of 22lr. I think this is worse than what happened after Sandy Hook and it's effects are going to continue for as long or longer. Hope I'm wrong about that. Me getting angry and then focusing that anger on the ammo and gun manufacturers isn't going to change anything. It merely serves to alienate the manufacturers and and individuals who work for them. There are plenty of people who want to draw and quarter the firearm and ammo manufacturers, they don't need my help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rye Miles #13621 Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 Why do people think this guy is lying? He seemed pretty honest and forward to me. The people that think everything is BS also believe in black helicopters flying over their house. They probably wear tin foil hats too! Gimme a break! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dirty Dan Dawkins Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 16 hours ago, DocWard said: I'm not sure where the "smoke" or the "BS" comes from. Yep, no doubt that primers are going to remain in short supply. I don't recall him saying "we're producing all the primers we can. He said they're producing all the ammo of different types they can. Face it, components of all sorts are likely to remain in short supply. I agree. The BS and smoke parts are merely conjecture. Just because an argument comes across as sound and logical and reasonable, and could be mistaken for a term paper due to its length, doesn’t necessarily make it true. I wrote one in college that was 7 pages long over why Napoleon was the greatest military and political leader i the modern era and the positive impacts he had even on modern governments and diplomacy. It was total BS, but I got an A+ nonetheless. Employees do this all the time about their employers without a clue about how the company works, it’s finances, assets, liabilities, cash flow, market dynamics, resources, personnel, affects on production from supply chain issues and covid shutdowns, heck, even what be going on in the personal lives of folks in charge. But the chatter is always the same: “My boss is a dumb a$$, this company isn’t worth a crap, and it would be great if they’d only do x,y, and z. I should quit. I’m worth more. I’m being cheated.” Heck, carbon arrows are about double and so is PVC pipe and lumber. I looked at a 8’ PT 4x4 the other day. $24 at Lowe’s. OSB, $25 a sheet. WTH! Heck, I can’t even get the PVC pipe I need sometimes, or a decent shovel, or dryer, or water heater! Everything is screwy. There’s one hell of a smoke blowing contest going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dirty Dan Dawkins Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 9 minutes ago, Rye Miles #13621 said: Why do people think this guy is lying? He seemed pretty honest and forward to me. The people that think everything is BS also believe in black helicopters flying over their house. They probably wear tin foil hats too! Gimme a break! I agree with you but I have had a black helicopter fly over and light up my place for quite a while. Authorities failed to explain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rye Miles #13621 Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 7 minutes ago, Dirty Dan Dawkins said: I agree with you but I have had a black helicopter fly over and light up my place for quite a while. Authorities failed to explain. Maybe it was the local news channel? One of our news channels here has a black helicopter! No really they do!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LawMan Mark, SASS #57095L Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 The percentage of shooters who reload is fairly low compared to the total number of ammunition purchasers. It's a niche market, profitable for the manufacturers, but by no means their "bread and butter" products. Until the ammo supply line fills up, primers will be hard to find. We're already seeing a reduction in the mass purchasing of ammo. People aren't buying the cases of 9mm and 223 like they were. Whether because of price or lack of inclination, I'm not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rye Miles #13621 Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 6 minutes ago, LawMan Mark, SASS #57095L said: The percentage of shooters who reload is fairly low compared to the total number of ammunition purchasers. It's a niche market, profitable for the manufacturers, but by no means their "bread and butter" products. Until the ammo supply line fills up, primers will be hard to find. We're already seeing a reduction in the mass purchasing of ammo. People aren't buying the cases of 9mm and 223 like they were. Whether because of price or lack of inclination, I'm not sure. + 1000 and we're already seeing prices of loaded ammo going down..... SLIGHTLY.......... but they are going down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pat Riot Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 So What? You can’t control it or do anything about it, but b**** and complain. It’s their business and if they have obligations by contract then so be it. This ammo shortage is due to panic buying. It’s not like the shortage a few years ago that was induced by the then current presidential administration that used different agencies to order exorbitant amounts of ammo under short time constraint enforceable contracts. There is no conspiracy here. Getting your blood pressure up over this does nothing except get your blood pressure up over this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irish ike, SASS #43615 Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 Someone explain to me, with out BS speculation, why a manufacturer would lie about production? The big demand is ammo, not primers. They're using all of the components to make ammo. Why would any manufacturer compromise ammo sales, where theres more profit, to produce primers for a small part of their market? They wouldn't. This is about "I don't have any primers, I can't buy any, there's a conspiracy going on". On another thread the guy was proposing setting out side the factory and watching how many trucks were coming and going! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Kloehr Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 8 hours ago, Rye Miles #13621 said: + 1000 and we're already seeing prices of loaded ammo going down..... SLIGHTLY.......... but they are going down. Agree. 9mm is showing up on Ammoseek, at about 3X prices a year ago (0.50 to 0.60 a round for plinking ammo). That is better than 0.95 a round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Kloehr Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 1 hour ago, irish ike, SASS #43615 said: Someone explain to me, with out BS speculation, why a manufacturer would lie about production? The big demand is ammo, not primers. They're using all of the components to make ammo. Why would any manufacturer compromise ammo sales, where theres more profit, to produce primers for a small part of their market? They wouldn't. This is about "I don't have any primers, I can't buy any, there's a conspiracy going on". On another thread the guy was proposing setting out side the factory and watching how many trucks were coming and going! Federal said so months ago. All primer production would go to ammo. Part of the process for investor relations, earnings reports and interviews, and SEC filings. No secret, clearly and unambiguously announced to the investor community. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Okie Sawbones, SASS #77381 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 10 hours ago, Rye Miles #13621 said: Why do people think this guy is lying? He seemed pretty honest and forward to me. The people that think everything is BS also believe in black helicopters flying over their house. They probably wear tin foil hats too! Gimme a break! There are two black helicopters over my house right now, trying to beam thought waves into my head. But my tin foal hat has a lead liner. Speaking of helicopters, I used to be a helicopter instructor. It had its ups and downs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whiskey Business Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 14 minutes ago, Okie Sawbones, SASS #77381 said: There are two black helicopters over my house right now, trying to beam thought waves into my head. But my tin foal hat has a lead liner. Speaking of helicopters, I used to be a helicopter instructor. It had its ups and downs. Darn it! Back to the drawing board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irish ike, SASS #43615 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 I grey tape a non-stick frying pan to my head. They can't steal my thoughts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pat Riot Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Darn black helicopters and those darned satellites. They keep beaming the same old crap every day. Get up, go to work, go home, eat, watch TV, go to bed, get up...over and over again... I put an aluminum foil hat on and nothing! Same things keep happening. I guess I need tin foil but no one sells it anymore. I keep going into stores and asking. I get the same responses. They nod their heads and then call someone on the radio or on the PA. I think they think there’s something wrong with with me. I don’t stick around. I hurry out and get on my bike and go. I got a 3 quart saucepan stuck on my head at Costco. They wanted me to pay for the whole set. Darned conspiracy, I tell ya. You find something that works and they try to bleed ya dry.... Figured I Had better add a smiley... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeaconKC Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Watch out @Pat Riot, SASS #13748 Emperor Nuisance will start telling you that you love more taxes, gun laws and don't really want to retire, as there are all those illegal aliens depending on your tax dollars! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whiskey Business Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 I would more than pleased to let the nefarious them steal my thoughts. They would never be the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pat Riot Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 hour ago, DeaconKC said: Watch out @Pat Riot, SASS #13748 Emperor Nuisance will start telling you that you love more taxes, gun laws and don't really want to retire, as there are all those illegal aliens depending on your tax dollars! He couldn’t handle the logic he would encounter. He’s a moronic puppet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Springfield Slim SASS #24733 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 John Boy: You agreed with everything he said, and then said he is blowing smoke. That doesn't makes any sense. The ammunition companies owned by Vita have military and Federal contracts for ammunition * These ammunition companies plus other ammo companies that make box store ammo need primers to make loaded rounds * That's where the primers are going ... for existing ammo contracts, to supply other ammo vendors and as he said to supply 700,000,000 rounds for new shooters. New shooters - complaining to gun manufactures there's no ammo? Never gonna happen Not every shooter being supplied under existing contracts and box store purchases .... there are many existing reloaders that shoot more than 2 boxes * There are many existing box store and new shooters .... switching over to reloading * This is indicative of the masses of box store shooters switching to reloading ... https://www.midsouthshooterssupply.com/dept/reloading/reloading-presses/press-kits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whiskey Business Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 19 minutes ago, Pat Riot, SASS #13748 said: He couldn’t handle the logic he would encounter. He’s a moronic puppet. Sir, you have just insulted moronic puppets everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Okie Sawbones, SASS #77381 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 11 hours ago, Whiskey Business said: I would more than pleased to let the nefarious them steal my thoughts. They would never be the same. Never be the same?! They would be scarred for life, cast into the dungeons of the insane ward, drooling and twitching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Kloehr Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 While the actual report costs money, lots of info is on this intro page: https://www.ibisworld.com/united-states/market-research-reports/guns-ammunition-manufacturing-industry/ Some points: Over the last 5 years, the industry has grown at about 2.3% per year 2020 has 7.5% growth! Over the next 5 years, growth will slow While there is a demand bubble (CoViD, civil unrest, the election), future government spending will likely focus on building economic recovery, which will likely reduce defense spending. So capital investment may not be profitable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whiskey Business Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 3 hours ago, Okie Sawbones, SASS #77381 said: Never be the same?! They would be scarred for life, cast into the dungeons of the insane ward, drooling and twitching. You say that like it's a bad thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Okie Sawbones, SASS #77381 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 6 hours ago, Whiskey Business said: You say that like it's a bad thing. Only on Thursdays, when I'm in drag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whiskey Business Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 I guess anything is an improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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