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Thanks for posting that.

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They may be making a butt-load - but what are they charging ? 9mm is going for $.80 a round. SOMEBODY is making a killing on it.

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4 minutes ago, Badlands Bob #61228 said:

If they are making so much ammo, where is it?  They obviously have some efficiency issues.

Did you hear what he said, 7,000,000 new shooters X 2 boxes  each is 700,000,000 rounds.  Add in panic buying, and horders there's no way they can produce those numbers with existing infrastructure.

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7 hours ago, irish ike, SASS #43615 said:

Did you hear what he said, 7,000,000 new shooters X 2 boxes  each is 700,000,000 rounds.  Add in panic buying, and horders there's no way they can produce those numbers with existing infrastructure.

Exactly that’s 7 million NEW shooters! That’s not counting existing shooters! You’re right Ike , they need another  new production plant!!

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It would be interesting to see what the other ammo manufacturers are doing! 

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19 minutes ago, Rye Miles #13621 said:

It would be interesting to see what the other ammo manufacturers are doing! 

Others?  from the video CCI  Fed and rem all owned by vista outdoor

They are working hard to make us ammo

my local store has lots of hunting rifle ammo and  12 gauge shells just no buck shot 

good luck finding what you need 

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10 minutes ago, Dirty Dog Doug said:

Others?  from the video CCI  Fed and rem all owned by vista outdoor

They are working hard to make us ammo

my local store has lots of hunting rifle ammo and  12 gauge shells just no buck shot 

good luck finding what you need 

Well there’s Winchester, MagTech, Fiocchi, Hornady etc! Am I missing something here? Does Vista outdoor own all those?

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1 minute ago, Rye Miles #13621 said:

Well there’s Winchester, MagTech, Fiocchi, Hornady etc! Am I missing something here? Does Vista outdoor own all those?

you are right ! they all need to work OT 

our sporting clay has pallets of winchester and  fiocchi  shot

gun shells 

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It's out there. AND AT about the same price.

 

You just have to TRY and find it. And it's not on the couch.

 

Just this week. I got 350 rounds of .380 at Academy Sports for .41 cents a round.

Got 400 rounds of 9mm for .27 cents a round.

All Winchester white box.

 

 

Yes. It took a few trips. Yes I had to stand in line BEFORE they open.

Because it will be gone FAST.

New shooters but mostly hoarding and over stocking.

Of which the over stocking I am guilty as of lately.  

 

 

Last week they had a ton of 5.56 even after they was open for a few hours.

It was also Winchester value pack white box.

200 round count boxes for $75

 

It's out there. You just have to work and go to get it.

And get it early.

 

I do avoid there Monarch brand ammo as most is steel case.

But did get 400 rounds of .380 last week of there Monarch brass case.

$36 cents a round.

Edited by Anvil Al #59168
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On 12/18/2020 at 9:19 PM, irish ike, SASS #43615 said:

Did you hear what he said, 7,000,000 new shooters X 2 boxes  each is 700,000,000 rounds.  Add in panic buying, and horders there's no way they can produce those numbers with existing infrastructure.

I believe his math is off. It should be 14,000,000. Unless he is doing some kinda new math.

I stand corrected, got hung up on the boxes instead of rounds of ammo.

Regardless there is an unprecedented demand for ammo.

Locally it is on the shelf but you have to ask for it. It is also limited to 2 boxes per customer. 

Edited by Marshal TKD, Sass # 36984L
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1 hour ago, Marshal TKD, Sass # 36984L said:

I believe his math is off. It should be 14,000,000. Unless he is doing some kinda new math.

Regardless there is an unprecedented demand for ammo.

Locally it is on the shelf but you have to ask for it. It is also limited to 2 boxes per customer. 

Nope, he's right.  One hundred rounds X 7 Million is 700 Million rounds, or 14 Million boxes of 50 rounds. 

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Tex you are right. Pistol ammo 50 rounds per box. Rifle or shotgun, 20 and 25. No matter its 100's of millions of rounds. Not counting military and retail contracts. 

You have to assume the factories are set up for "normal" annual production and demand. There are no idle machines sitting around waiting for an increased demand.

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I have kept .38 spl, .357 mag, .44 spl, 45 Colt, and 22 LR 'topped up' (I shoot these regularly at the range) with weekly or twice-weekly visits to stores, especially Bass Pro. Ammo is coming in, but quantities are limited and it goes fast. They charge ordinary retail prices; no 'gouging'.

 

Usually a couple-three weeks go by until I luck into some. And it's easier for me than for some others, because they have a store in my city. The point being that ammo is being made and shipped all the time.

 

There's a small store here that has goodly amounts in stock, but they charge ridiculous 'shortage' prices. I don't need to buy from them to keep supplies in place.

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Don't forget that COVID shut down imports of Seller&Bellot, Aguilla, Privi Paratizan, MagTech and others for several months. Add in that Remington was shut down during the Bankruptcy and we would be seeing a shortage without the addition of a few million new shooters.

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38 minutes ago, Sedalia Dave said:

Don't forget that COVID shut down imports of Seller&Bellot, Aguilla, Privi Paratizan, MagTech and others for several months. Add in that Remington was shut down during the Bankruptcy and we would be seeing a shortage without the addition of a few million new shooters.

Correct! Don't forget Italy got slammed by the China Virus and was shut down for a few months. That includes Uberti, Pietta and ammo companies like Aquilla and Fiocchi. That's why Taylor's and Cimarron are out of stock on just about everything!

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1 hour ago, Sedalia Dave said:

Don't forget that COVID shut down imports of Seller&Bellot, Aguilla, Privi Paratizan, MagTech and others for several months. Add in that Remington was shut down during the Bankruptcy and we would be seeing a shortage without the addition of a few million new shooters.

This is the biggest impact. It seems many of you don't work in larger cities and see the impact. In the spring and early summer Phoenix was like a ghost town because so many places were shut down. We were starting to get back to normal again when the latest spike came. We just got switched back to work from home mode whenever possible. 

 

Factories are in full panic mode when it comes to COVID. They do not want the liability in court or in the media of not taking every precaution possible. If it means shutting down, they shut down.

 

Like the guy said in the video, it takes time to train someone to operate and monitor a machine. With today's just-in-time manufacturing the work cells are made to be operated by one trained person. If that person is gone, they have to pull someone from another task and that person probably doesn't know all the idiosyncrasies of the machines under their care. I have worked in factories. All it takes is one crash of a mis-adjusted machine and the specialized tooling is damaged or broken. The machine can't operate until the part is replaced. One machine being down means the entire line is down with zero output. Understand the process. It isn't just one machine that makes something, it is a series of machines, each with a task in the process to make something. Yes, a factory may have a hundred presses punching out parts, but they can't be switched. The tooling is specific to the machine. A factory may have fifty extruders, but each does a specific task and again is not interchangeable. It goes on and on.

 

And like Irish Ike said, they are dependant on supplies themselves. No one company owns the mines, the smelters, the forges, etc. A factory may have a small supply of brass or powder on hand but just-in-time manufacturing keeps that very low. Companies don't want the inventory on their books. Some states even tax companies for stock on hand. All heck breaks loose if the supplier sends material that doesn't meet requirements. I have seen that personally. A shipment of critical parts came in that were out of spec and couldn't be used. It took weeks to get another shipment to replace them and in the meantime the line was down.

Edited by Cholla
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38 minutes ago, Rye Miles #13621 said:

Correct! Don't forget Italy got slammed by the China Virus and was shut down for a few months. That includes Uberti, Pietta and ammo companies like Aquilla and Fiocchi. That's why Taylor's and Cimarron are out of stock on just about everything!

And Italy is partially shutdown again now.  This is going to go on a while.  I've been waiting on a color case hardened '73 carbine in .357 since March.  It will get here when it gets here.

Edited by Ozark Shark
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16 minutes ago, Cholla said:

This is the biggest impact. It seems many of you don't work in larger cities and see the impact. In the spring and early summer Phoenix was like a ghost town because so many places were shut down. We were starting to get back to normal again when the latest spike came. We just got switched back to work from home mode whenever possible. 

 

Factories are in full panic mode when it comes to COVID. They do not want the liability in court or in the media of not taking every precaution possible. If it means shutting down, they shut down.

 

Like the guy said in the video, it takes time to train someone to operate and monitor a machine. With today's just-in-time manufacturing the work cells are made to be operated by one trained person. If that person is gone, they have to pull someone from another task and that person probably doesn't know all the idiosyncrasies of the machines under their care. I have worked in factories. All it takes is one crash of a mis-adjusted machine and the specialized tooling is damaged or broken. The machine can't operate until the part is replaced. One machine being down means the entire line is down with zero output. Understand the process. It isn't just one machine that makes something, it is a series of machines, each with a task in the process to make something. Yes, a factory may have a hundred presses punching out parts, but they can't be switched. The tooling is specific to the machine. A factory may have fifty extruders, but each does a specific task and again is not interchangeable. It goes on and on.

 

And like Irish Ike said, they are dependant on supplies themselves. No one company owns the mines, the smelters, the forges, etc. A factory may have a small supply of brass or powder on hand but just-in-time manufacturing keeps that very low. Companies don't want the inventory on their books. Some states even tax companies for stock on hand. All heck breaks loose if the supplier sends material that doesn't meet requirements. I have seen that personally. A shipment of critical parts came in that were out of spec and couldn't be used. It took weeks to get another shipment to replace them and in the meantime the line was down.

Great explanation.  LEAN manufacturing principles are all based on optimizing throughput, not maximizing.  Adjustments take time to work their way through the production cycle.  The manufacturer can increase the number of kanbans in the supplier order cycle to adjust for the lengthening material lead times, but that only helps if inbound shipments are actually happening on something close to a regular schedule.  And full production still must allow for PM cycles to reduce that chance of misadjusted operation which means there is no such thing as 100% utilization. 

 

And I wouldn't expect an ammo or firearms manufacturer to be in a hurry to layout the capital for additional production facilities until they 1.) see what happens with 2A policy in 2021 and 2.) if ammo demand level remains this high in a post-COVID USA.

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Why??  OK.  So why does it seem when there is a shortage of "something" the immediate knee jerk reaction is to float unsubstantiated accusations of skullduggery, dishonesty, and meaningless frustration out into the cosmos???  Why??  OK.  So why is it some ignoramus with absolutely NO information must immediately PARROT those same unsubstantiated claims of skullduggery out into the cosmos.  Then the Whining starts.  "Where's MINE."  There is no entitlement.  You're only guaranteed two things after your hatched.  You going to pay taxes and you're going to die.  Everything else is CAKE!!

 

Does anyone with all this stupendous knowledge have the slightest idea when Federal munitions and Remington Ammunition came under this current parasol??  How about factual knowledge of the current situation of components in the supply chain??

 

It's a sorry state that YOU aren't getting YOUR entitlement.  Understand, virtually laying on the floor whilst kicking your legs and screaming isn't going to improve the situation.  Patience is good for your Blood Pressure.

 

PLUS ONE for Ozark Shark. 

Edited by Colorado Coffinmaker
Fix stupid Otto Correct
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One other thing to remember, there’s more profit in completed ammunition then in most? all? the components.  And you can’t blame the companies making ammo to use their stock of primers to load their ammo.  So I think once ammunition production/sales settles down then we’ll see primers coming back.

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Most companies now use the "just in time" means of manufacture and ordering. Keep one month of supply need instead of 12 months. A lot of capital locked up and come the end of the year they pay taxes on inventory.

So Federal says, buy 4 more set ups to generate 9mm. I can guarantee no company has the machinery needed sitting around waiting for the phone to ring.

I posted on another thread. This is the perfect example of the grasshopper and the ant. People should have bought when available and they had the cash after the last big shortage.

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1 hour ago, Ozark Shark said:

And I wouldn't expect an ammo or firearms manufacturer to be in a hurry to layout the capital for additional production facilities until they 1.) see what happens with 2A policy in 2021 and 2.) if ammo demand level remains this high in a post-COVID USA.

 

Exactly. This is a bubble. Yes, there may be 7,000,000 new gun owners but most likely 6,000,000 are going to let the firearm sit in a nightstand or closet and not fire it. Once this bubble passes the demand will only be slightly more elevated than before. A company will have to decide if it makes sense in the long term to invest in new equipment. Making new machines take time. They can't just go to Machines Are Us and buy an assembly line. The machines have to be designed, quoted, sent before a corporate board, and then ordered, made, installed, and setup. That can take years. A company has to look in their crystal ball and give their best guess on what the market will be at that time.

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18 minutes ago, Cholla said:

 

They can't just go to Machines Are Us and buy an assembly line. 

You figure out that one and you'd be the next Warren Buffett, Bill Gates, Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos times two.

Edited by Ozark Shark
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Plus, it will take some time for the companies that bought up the fragmented Remington assets to get organized with equipment and personnel to start producing.

 

If I remember correctly, not all of the ammunition assets went to the same company.

 

At least we can hope that Ruger will get the Marlin firearms back into production with a finely crafted firearm.  Currently Ruger does not produce any lever action rifles, but that should change in the near future.  I believe their last lever action was the Model 39 shooting 22 LR.

 

The ammunition and components will start arriving whenever they start arriving.  No one has a crystal ball to know exactly when that might be.  So, those of us that loaded up after the last shortage should try to help our pards weather this bubble as best we can.

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