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Nugget Joe

re-loading re-start

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Back many yrs ago I used to reload all my own cartridges from 45-70 to 45lc.   I now have the time and interest to start reloading again. My question for someone who has been out of shooting for years,,,,,  where are all the primers? A follow up from what I’m seeing, is reloading going to be a thing of the past? 
I remember buying primers in thousands and the cost substantially less expensive than the prices I’m seeing now, of course all out of stock...

Thanks.

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6 minutes ago, Nugget Joe said:

where are all the primers?

 

Welcome to the "New Norm". 

 

Small pistol primers are almost unavailable at normal retail prices.  Large pistol are, or have been,  more available.  

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10 minutes ago, Warden Callaway said:

 

Welcome to the "New Norm". 

 

Small pistol primers are almost unavailable at normal retail prices.  Large pistol are, or have been,  more available.  

But why is this?

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You can use small rifle primers in place of small pistol

Finding primers is a real PITA now.

OLG 

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Ahh.    So we suffer.   Oh well, I’ll go on the search..

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There's more to it than just panic buying. Has to be.

If you were a mfr and people were going crazy buying your product, wouldn't ramp up production? More revenue...

I have a hard time believing it's just panic creating the shortage... who knows?

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With the recent politics, there has been a great increase in buying guns and buying ammunition.  Lots of first-time gun owners!

 

And with a new gun, they need some ammo.

Plus everyone has been stocking up - to be prepared

- prepared for shortages like this

 -prepared for break down of law and order

- a few preparing to break down law and order.  (sadly)

 

This has been cyclic for many years but has gotten much worse since the Clinton's and continued talk of gun control as the left has gained more political power.

 

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I've seen small pistol primers sell for $300+/1000, shipped, on Gunbroker lately. :blink:

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It will be a struggle getting equipment and components at this time to do reloading.  You are competing against millions trying to do the same thing after factory loaded ammo pretty much dried up 5 months or so ago.   If you are able to find what you want, it will be 3 times or more the normal price, for most items.  If you are just doing this because it will be fun to reload, I'd advise waiting for about a year, to let the political/civil situation shake out. 

 

Either the market and society will: 

1-  settle down and get somewhat back to normal

or

2 - blow up (perhaps literally) and then no one will be reloading because there will be many other disasters to attend to.

 

These shortages due to irrational buying surges have always disappeared before.   The manufacturers, I am sure, are producing components and ammo at full capacity (as they did in the 2016 shortages).   But as we all saw with something simple like TP, it is VERY easy to overwhelm the manufacturing capacity in the US!    Because they no longer value keeping "surge" capacity in mothballs until needed.

 

Good luck, GJ

 

 

 

 

Edited by Garrison Joe, SASS #60708
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The real price when they were fairly well available was around $28 to $33 per thousand.  With none now on the retail shelves the scalpers are acting like thieves.

Blackfoot

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The manufacturers are using their primer production to make their own ammo, which is also in short supply in many areas. Don't expect the situation to improve until after the election and probably the first of the year.

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32 minutes ago, DeaconKC said:

The manufacturers are using their primer production to make their own ammo, which is also in short supply in many areas. Don't expect the situation to improve until after the election and probably the first of the year.

 

 

on top of that i was told by a federal employee they are converting the large pistol primer cartridges to small , im OK on large i need small ill wait it out till after the election before deciding what to do about the situation , 

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I heard a cool rumor that the primer makers were buying primers back from hoarders because of the increased  volume in the mfr of firearms. Buy a new gun, buy some ammo.

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1 hour ago, DeaconKC said:

The manufacturers are using their primer production to make their own ammo, which is also in short supply in many areas. Don't expect the situation to improve until after the election and probably the first of the year.

 

Depending on which way the election goes, could be more of the same, if not worse.

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3 hours ago, The Rainmaker, SASS #11631 said:

There's more to it than just panic buying. Has to be.

If you were a mfr and people were going crazy buying your product, wouldn't ramp up production? More revenue...

I have a hard time believing it's just panic creating the shortage... who knows?

 

Most are and have been run'n 24/7/365.

There's only so much space, and x amout of folks allowed within a given area when dealing with explosive compounds.

Just glad I bought all I did, when I did. ;)

OLG 

 

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All of the ammo mfrs are ...big surprise ... also in the primer business and are using their primers in their loaded ammo. The return on investment is exponentially greater for the primer in the cartridge than as a separately sold

component.  I wish I had enough primers to not have to put every one into loaded ammo to keep new shooters and regular customers who do not reload shooting. There were like 2.5 million NEW households buying guns - 1st time buyers - if they each bought 2 boxes of ammo... then, the first time someone says, shortage and election in the same sentence... we lose all reason...  they’ll be back. 
 

hugs!

Scarlett

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6 hours ago, Nugget Joe said:

But why is this?

Remember the recent toilet paper shortage?  Same type of panic causing firearm items shortages this time.

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I was at the local Sportsmans Warehouse at opening on a Monday 3 weeks ago. They had 10,000 Federal sp, 10,000 Fed lp and about 10,000cci. I bought 3k Fed sp, for $23.95/k, but could have bought them all. They were all gone by noon. So some are arriving at larger retailers still. 

 

Imis ...dont hate me because I got lucky

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1 hour ago, Imis Twohofon,SASS # 46646 said:

 

Imis ...dont hate me because I got lucky

 

Give me a minute and I’ll come up with a list.  :P

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12 hours ago, The Original Lumpy Gritz said:

Just glad I bought all I did, when I did. ;)

 

Do I detect a little gloating,  mayhaps? ;)

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Well,  I have enough left over from loading 45lc years ago so I guess its just going to be a waiting game.  Thanks for all the replies.  
Joe 

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39 minutes ago, Nugget Joe said:

Well,  I have enough left over from loading 45lc years ago so I guess its just going to be a waiting game.  Thanks for all the replies.  
Joe 

 

Let’s all just hope the wait is only months not years.

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3 hours ago, Warden Callaway said:

 

Do I detect a little gloating,  mayhaps? ;)

 

Not me :lol:

OLG 

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Quote

where are all the primers?

Good question.  Distributors are out of supply for 4 to 6 months now to their vendors

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CCI primers are showing up on the market. The price is ridiculous, but they are available again.

 

Federal will be a while, all internal production is going to ammo (and Federal ran behind on military and LE contracts due to CoViD). After that, primers will go to ammo remanufacturers (press releases). Then after that gets going (which will cut into ammo production by Federal) we will see primers through normal channels.

 

And I hear Remington production is shut down until the bankruptcy proceedings progress further (rumor level confidence) which just compresses demand on makers like Federal.

 

I did see Blazer Brass on the search engines today (sold out, but it did show up).

 

Consumers are still draining the pipeline faster than it is filling but the spigot is no longer completely off.

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On 10/11/2020 at 2:00 PM, The Rainmaker, SASS #11631 said:

There's more to it than just panic buying. Has to be.

If you were a mfr and people were going crazy buying your product, wouldn't ramp up production? More revenue...

I have a hard time believing it's just panic creating the shortage... who knows?

Component manufactures have been here before.  When the first of these panics hit, lots of them ramped up and produced extra, then when the panic was over, the bottom fell out of the market for years.  People had stocked up on so much stuff and they didn’t buy more till it was all gone.  

It almost bankrupted some companies.  They learned from the experience and are not taking the bait.  They can sell everything they currently produce and they know the heightened demand is temporary.  Why incur more costs to destroy your future sales?

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My gun shop still has primers of all sizes in stock.  Mostly Rem & Win.

But I have been TDY for quite a spell.  So I have not sold out yet.

 

www.wildwestarms.com

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There are also more reloaders now that even a few years ago.  

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On 10/11/2020 at 3:19 PM, Three Foot Johnson said:

I've seen small pistol primers sell for $300+/1000, shipped, on Gunbroker lately. :blink:

Shades of $3000 dollar basic AR-15's and $100 for a box of 50 22LR in 2013.

 

On 10/11/2020 at 4:54 PM, Garrison Joe, SASS #60708 said:

It will be a struggle getting equipment and components at this time to do reloading.  You are competing against millions trying to do the same thing after factory loaded ammo pretty much dried up 5 months or so ago.   If you are able to find what you want, it will be 3 times or more the normal price, for most items.  If you are just doing this because it will be fun to reload, I'd advise waiting for about a year, to let the political/civil situation shake out. 

 

Either the market and society will: 

1-  settle down and get somewhat back to normal

or

2 - blow up (perhaps literally) and then no one will be reloading because there will be many other disasters to attend to.

 

These shortages due to irrational buying surges have always disappeared before.   The manufacturers, I am sure, are producing components and ammo at full capacity (as they did in the 2016 shortages).   But as we all saw with something simple like TP, it is VERY easy to overwhelm the manufacturing capacity in the US!    Because they no longer value keeping "surge" capacity in mothballs until needed.

 

Good luck, GJ

 

 

 

 

Mfg's keeping product in warehouses is same putting cash under a mattress.  It doesn't help the bottom line.  Also, when borrowed funds are used to buy materials & labor costs paid interest.

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As long as a ammo manufacturer can make a higher profit selling loaded ammo to frightened new gun owners he would be a fool to sell his components separately to reloaders. When the supply of loaded ammo catches up and all the store shelves and back orders are filled and the extreme demand isn’t there he will start selling components again and go back to more normal production. 

Edited by Baltimore Ed

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Anyone who is aware of the supply chain in any manufacturing process knows what is happening right now. Rolling up from the consumer you have the retailer, the distributor, the manufacturer, the component supplier (I doubt Federal makes every part of a primer, they get components somewhere). All of these nodes in the pipeline are set up on order history, and every link in the chain is running on the JIT (just in time) theory of manufacturing, excess inventory is bad. Depending on the individual component and the supplier of that component, lead times could range from 3 weeks to 3 months. All of the buyers in this chain are working on projections and blanket orders received. Everything goes smoothly if planners get it right, but once the apple cart is tipped it gets crazy. When the pipeline is emptied on the consumer end the distribution center's supply dries up. The manufacturer can't restock this unplanned surge because the components can't come in fast enough. The component manufacturers can't ramp up fast enough, because the more panic on the consumer end, the greater demand on them, and capacity to produce has a limit. Throw into the mix that the ammo manufacturers are going to fill their government contracts first, then their own loaded ammo for resell, leaving reloading components for last (after all reloaders are in a way their competition!). 

So, when demand spikes, the whole supply chain train crashes off the rails and it could take months to clear the wreckage and get the train back on the tracks. 

It can, & sometimes does happen with any manufactured product. We just see & feel it more with reloading supplies. 

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Sawmill Mary just picked up a couple of small safes just to put primers in.  :o

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15 hours ago, J.D. Daily said:

Mfg's keeping product in warehouses is same putting cash under a mattress. 

I'll bet a tidy sum there's no stock being held back in manufacturer or distributor warehouses right now.

 

Last panic buying, distributors were loading almost directly from incoming trucks to outgoing trucks.  And manufacturers had product already allocated before they could start making it.

 

What is different right now is 

1) panic buying and

2) production capacity sized to what JIT inventory control experts say is most cost effective in normal situations.

 

In other words, in abnormal situations, the standard consumers get almost nothing for a while.   And hoarders/scalpers get a lot if they can divert product from normal distribution paths.  I believe both are happening.

 

Good luck, GJ

 

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25 minutes ago, Garrison Joe, SASS #60708 said:

...production capacity sized to what JIT inventory control experts say is most cost effective in normal situations....

 

 

I was working at Texas Instruments Custom Manufacturing back when they started implementing the JIT (Just In Time) practices.   Great in theory, but even in "normal situations" there are must too many things that can cause delays.  I liked to call it JMI (Just Missed It).

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