Sturgis

[JD Trampas, SASS # 55781]

Just throwing my 2 cents out, Sturgis is expecting 250,000 bikers, this is the 80th anniversary and usually on the anniversary dates which is every 5 years they usually get over 500,000 and more, so basically there are 250,000 people staying home, I used to go to Sturgis every year, but haven't been there since 2003 and don't plan on going back for the time being anyway.

 

 

All for now JD Trampas

[Smokin Gator SASS #29736]

I've seen coverage about Sturgis and they had a reality show about those outfits that depend on that week for their income. Still I didn't realize how mant people go there each year. There can't be enough rooms for them.

[Utah Bob #35998]

9 hours ago, Hardpan Curmudgeon SASS #8967 said:

For those folk who keep insisting that the Covid death count is grossly inflated, and that victims who died of accidents, heart attacks, cancer, murder, alien abduction and vivisection or other causes are being rampantly, widely, and falsely blamed on Covid, I have the following suggestion:  Do your research.  

 

I hate to say it, but for those of us who have taken the time to search beyond Facebook rhetoric, these arguments don't carry much weight.  In fact, they sound downright silly at best, and hysterical at worst.  

 

Do your research.  Please.  

 

Here's one place (there are countless!) you might start:  https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-covid-19-deaths-are-counted1/

 

 

On another note:

 

As a matter of perspective, during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, CDC estimated that there were 60.8 million cases in the U. S. (range: 43.3 - 89.3 million) cases.  Of those, there were 12,469 deaths recorded.

 

To date (roughly six months into the Covid pandemic) in the U. S. we have roughly 4.9 million cases reported and just shy of 160 thousand deaths.  Or, for roughly 1/12th the number of cases, 5 times the number of deaths as with H1N1.  Granted, the mortality rate has improved from one out of sixteen earlier this year to one out of a hundred now, but that's still a hell of a lot higher than one out of 4,800 with the H1N1.

 

So much for that "Well! People die of the FLU, too!" chestnut.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And even if you don’t die, the lingering effects are unpleasant and may be permanent in many cases. It ain’t like the dang flu!

It would seem however, the only people who change their minds and admit that it is a serious threat, are the ones who catch it. 
I find it odd that folks who carry a firearm daily to protect them and their family, on the very very small chance that they might need it, will refuse to wear a mask.

I wonder if the government made ccw compulsory if they would refuse to carry? 

 

[Cemetery]

12 hours ago, Subdeacon Joe said:

My objection is to ever-changing and inconsistently applied policies, rules, and regulation seemingly based on caprice, malice, whimsy, or political agenda.  

 

This.

 

 

[Warden Callaway]

33 minutes ago, Smokin Gator SASS #29736 said:

I've seen coverage about Sturgis and they had a reality show about those outfits that depend on that week for their income. Still I didn't realize how mant people go there each year. There can't be enough rooms for them.

 

About 10 years ago we took the granddaughters on a vacation out that away. Yellowstone and back. We didn't realize it was Sturgis week.  Motorcycles at every tourist location for hundreds of miles around Sturgis.   We drove through Sturgis on our way to Mt. Rushmore.  Many, many mills of campgrounds were on each side of the road. 

[Raylan]

Yes, the virus is more dangerous than the average flu, but less dangerous than many historical flu's. Yes, it should be taken seriously. No, I wouldn't go to Sturgis this year. Just some clarification on some previous information in this thread. There are about 4.9 million verified cases from testing, however that should in no way be confused with how many people actually have or have had the virus. Estimates have indicated that for every one case verified through testing there are about 10 times that number who have had it or have it and not been tested. This is based on research in Europe and the US. Those numbers many change but they are the latest that I have seen. Given that it indicates that about 49 million people have or have had the virus. Given 160,000 deaths attributed to the virus that would mean that the virus is leathal in 3 tenths of a percent of cases or .003 - meaning that it is not lethal in 99.7 percent of cases, which matches current estimates of the viruses lethality from health care epidemiologists, which was about .00286. That it more than double the average flu. However with newer and better treatment protocols and new drugs and treatments continuing to come into the health care system (convalescent plasma, HCQ, Remdesivir, and others such as some steriods), the death rate will continue to drop as will cases of longer term health issues. 

 

So currently estimates are that it is/was a little over twice about two and a half times as deadly overall as the flu. That will continue to drop and hopefully it can get to the level of the average flu. However there are some important differences than the average flu, principle among them is that the virus is less deadly than the average flu for school age children and most younger people without serious health issues. It is however much more deadly for people in their seventies or above and people in their sixties or above with health issues. 

 

Recently read another article (had seen it elsewhere before but this was on CNN not a right wing site) on T cell immunity by which it is posited that many people have a built in immunity not antibody based, and that researchers are estimating that almost 50 percent of individuals in the population will not get the virus due to this immunity. "If" that is the case then that would mean that the US has about 65 percent of the population now with immunity either due to natural T cell immunity or to antibodies from having had the virus. "If" that is the case then the good news is that failing a vaccine the US could be within 5 percent to 15 percent of herd immunity which is posited as somewhere around 70 to 80 percent. 

 

 

[Hardpan Curmudgeon SASS #8967]

Ray, your math is incorrect.  Decimal is in the wrong place. 

 

It's 3%, not .3%.

 

However, that is the average over the past six months; as I noted above, current mortality rate is about one out of a hundred; four months ago, it was one out of about 16.

 

This is a heck of a lot more than 2 1/2 times more deadly than the "flu."  Estimates range from 10 times to 60 times deadlier than the "flu."

[Warden Callaway]

28 minutes ago, Raylan said:

Yes, the virus is more dangerous than the average flu, but less dangerous than many historical flu's. Yes, it should be taken seriously. No, I wouldn't go to Sturgis this year. Just some clarification on some previous information in this thread. There are about 4.9 million verified cases from testing, however that should in no way be confused with how many people actually have or have had the virus. Estimates have indicated that for every one case verified through testing there are about 10 times that number who have had it or have it and not been tested. This is based on research in Europe and the US. Those numbers many change but they are the latest that I have seen. Given that it indicates that about 49 million people have or have had the virus. Given 160,000 deaths attributed to the virus that would mean that the virus is leathal in 3 tenths of a percent of cases or .003 - meaning that it is not lethal in 99.7 percent of cases, which matches current estimates of the viruses lethality from health care epidemiologists, which was about .00286. That it more than double the average flu. However with newer and better treatment protocols and new drugs and treatments continuing to come into the health care system (convalescent plasma, HCQ, Remdesivir, and others such as some steriods), the death rate will continue to drop as will cases of longer term health issues. 

 

So currently estimates are that it is/was a little over twice about two and a half times as deadly overall as the flu. That will continue to drop and hopefully it can get to the level of the average flu. However there are some important differences than the average flu, principle among them is that the virus is less deadly than the average flu for school age children and most younger people without serious health issues. It is however much more deadly for people in their seventies or above and people in their sixties or above with health issues. 

 

Recently read another article (had seen it elsewhere before but this was on CNN not a right wing site) on T cell immunity by which it is posited that many people have a built in immunity not antibody based, and that researchers are estimating that almost 50 percent of individuals in the population will not get the virus due to this immunity. "If" that is the case then that would mean that the US has about 65 percent of the population now with immunity either due to natural T cell immunity or to antibodies from having had the virus. "If" that is the case then the good news is that failing a vaccine the US could be within 5 percent to 15 percent of herd immunity which is posited as somewhere around 70 to 80 percent. 

 

 

 

 

Thank you!   

 

They are taking numbers and presenting them in the most alarming way. Possibly.  Two inch headlines in local paper "Six new cases in last two week bringing total to 36 cases".  Didn't mention there are 45,000 people in the county.  Not to mention 30 of the 36 have recovered.  

 

They are taking 20,000 test a day in Missouri to get a few hundred positive cases.  They are taking very few antibody tests to see how many have already had it. 

[Raylan]

No, I'm right. You are only getting the 3 percent from from those cases that have been identified. You cannot get a realistic mortality rate from using only identified cases. 

https://nypost.com/2020/06/25/getting-realistic-about-the-coronavirus-death-rate/

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/06/05/fact-check-cdc-estimates-covid-19-death-rate-0-26/5269331002/

 

So, per those I misrembered some it was .26% which is .0026. meaing survival of 99.74 percent and death rate of .26 percent in other word out of a thousand people who get it about 2 and a half to 3 die. Out of 100 people who get it less than one would on average die. 

[Hardpan Curmudgeon SASS #8967]

Well, alrighty then.  

 

 

[Warden Callaway]

https://www.sturgis-sd.gov/media-information

 

Looks like they are canceling some of the events and modifying others. 

[Utah Bob #35998]

6 minutes ago, Warden Callaway said:

https://www.sturgis-sd.gov/media-information

 

Looks like they are canceling some of the events and modifying others. 

Good.

[Utah Bob #35998]

We have 2 cases in this county. Montezuma County to the south has 108. Last weekend they had their county fair,  which brings folks from NM, UT, and AZ. I’ll be watching their case count closely for the next few weeks.
I cannot afford to be cavalier about the situation. Should my wife become infected, it would pretty much be a death sentence.

[Hardpan Curmudgeon SASS #8967]

22 minutes ago, Utah Bob #35998 said:

We have 2 cases in this county. Montezuma County to the south has 108. Last weekend they had their county fair,  which brings folks from NM, UT, and AZ. I’ll be watching their case count closely for the next few weeks.
I cannot afford to be cavalier about the situation. Should my wife become infected, it would pretty much be a death sentence.

 

Stay safe, you two.   

 

 

[Ozark Shark]

On 8/3/2020 at 8:25 PM, Utah Bob #35998 said:

Well we found out how smart Memorial Day and Independence Day gatherings were. Not very.

Depends on how you apply protocols.  The Lake of the Ozarks had large crowds without a case during Memorial Day.  What was never shown on TV was the medical screeners at every public site entrance taking every entrant's temperature.  Even with sun exposure, if they're temp was above 99.9, they were turned away.

 

We've had some new cases since Independence Day but they've been traced to out of town sources.

[Warden Callaway]

5 hours ago, Ozark Shark said:

Depends on how you apply protocols.  The Lake of the Ozarks had large crowds without a case during Memorial Day.  What was never shown on TV was the medical screeners at every public site entrance taking every entrant's temperature.  Even with sun exposure, if they're temp was above 99.9, they were turned away.

 

We've had some new cases since Independence Day but they've been traced to out of town sources.

 

Boy was there ever wizzing and moaning about that in the media!  The end of civilization as we know it. 

 

Just my observation but being on the great migration route to the Lake of the Ozarks,  people are fleeing oppressed (mask mandatory) areas like rats from a sinking ship. 

[Ozark Shark]

8 hours ago, Warden Callaway said:

 

Boy was there ever wizzing and moaning about that in the media!  The end of civilization as we know it. 

 

Just my observation but being on the great migration route to the Lake of the Ozarks,  people are fleeing oppressed (mask mandatory) areas like rats from a sinking ship. 

Truth.  Real estate at the lake is selling hotter than ever right now.  And we're seeing plenty of "fleeing" vacationers.

[Utah Bob #35998]

11 hours ago, Warden Callaway said:

 

Boy was there ever wizzing and moaning about that in the media!  The end of civilization as we know it. 

 

Just my observation but being on the great migration route to the Lake of the Ozarks,  people are fleeing oppressed (mask mandatory) areas like rats from a sinking ship. 

Funny. I’m in a mask mandatory area and I don’t feel oppressed at all.

[Warden Callaway]

 

[Subdeacon Joe]

[Buckshot Bob]

20 hours ago, Warden Callaway said:

 

Boy was there ever wizzing and moaning about that in the media!  The end of civilization as we know it. 

 

Just my observation but being on the great migration route to the Lake of the Ozarks,  people are fleeing oppressed (mask mandatory) areas like rats from a sinking ship. 

Probably that Netflix show bringing them there  

[Assassin]

Most folks don't stay at Sturgis for the week. They only go for a day or two. Many stay in the surrounding communities, or other towns withins a few hours ride.

Cody gets lots of bikers before, during, and after. Many stay in Cheyenne before heading up to Sturgis or returning. Rapid City gets quite a few also. I doubt the total 250k bikers will all be there at one time. 

[Assassin]

 Covid 19 must be a weird disease that affects those that are most concerned about it. All the avid campers (homeless) appear to have some kind of immunity. Here in Cheyenne there is a fair group of homeless folks, they aren't being tested, they don't have symptoms, and they are not living the healthiest lifestyles. I don't see bodies on the streets and alleys. Whatever they are doing is working. They don't social distance, nor do they wear masks. Perhaps the scientists should study them and tell the rest of humanity what they are doing wrong. Just an observation.

[Hardpan Curmudgeon SASS #8967]

Assassin, you didn't do your research, and your observations of Wyoming certainly do not fit the rest of the country.

There is a LOT if information out there to the contrary of what you see in Cheyenne.  By the way... according to the Wyoming State Government, your entire STATE has an estimated homeless population of fewer than 600 people.  Compare that to an estimated 1,200 in Fresno alone; 135,000 in California.  

 

This is from three months ago:

 

 

Quote

 

A CDC report on homeless shelters in four U.S. cities — Boston, Seattle, San Francisco and Atlanta — found that 25% of residents in 19 shelters tested positive for the novel coronavirus, known as SARS-CoV-2, from March 27 to April 15.

Another CDC report on three homeless service sites in Washington state concluded that “COVID-19 was diagnosed in 35 of 195 (18%) residents and eight of 38 (21%) staff members.” That report also noted that “COVID-19 can spread quickly in homeless shelters; rapid interventions including testing and isolation to identify cases and minimize transmission are necessary.” 

 

 

But obviously some Facebook meme of the Joker is so much more believable than the CDC.  

 

                

 

 

 

[Loophole LaRue, SASS #51438]

There are over 111,000 confirmed (by testing) Covid 19 cases in MA, and over 8400 deaths.  I don't know how anyone who sees such numbers, and thinks critically, can cavalierly dismiss the seriousness of this disease.  If you live in a remote or thinly populated area that does not see such numbers, God bless you, and I hope you can maintain your distance.  But if you live in urban or suburban areas, you're a fool if you do not do everything you can to avoid transmission...and that includes staying home, using a mask when you go anywhere near others, and frequent hand washing/sanitizing.  Just because you can't see the thing doesn't mean it's not real.

 

I took my wife's car in for an inspection sticker last week.  I was wearing a mask; the attendant was wearing a mask; and I wiped the interior of the car down with Clorox wipes after he was done.  Overkill?  I don't think so.  Fearful?  You bet your sweet bippy.  And rightfully so.  Anyone who thinks this is a joke, or a political scheme, or an over-inflated fear campaign, should take their bravado and go to work in a retirement home or a hospital, where the infected are dying and caregivers are struggling to save lives - including their own.

 

338 new confirmed cases in MA yesterday alone; 2 new deaths; and we are at the bottom of the trend in this state.  Hopefully it stays that way.  Some folks just can't understand, or refuse to surrender their personal desires to protect the lives of others.  The town where I intend to retire is a beach town; it employs a bunch of lifegaurds every summer.  The combination of great weather, graduations, and a chance to break out from the Covid restrictions was too much to resist for this years' crew.  They had a big beach party, ignoring the ban on large gatherings, the required social distancing and the mask mandate.  The result?  We now have 10 former lifeguards diagnosed with Covid 19 and seriously ill.  And these are kids that are in the teens/twenties age bracket that is supposed to be less likely to be infected.

 

Stay home.  Stay safe.  Do what you can to protect the lives of those more vulnerable (like us old dudes).  Until there is a vaccine, there is no truly safe place  and no immunity.

 

LL

 

 

[Assassin]

8 hours ago, Hardpan Curmudgeon SASS #8967 said:

Assassin, you didn't do your research, and your observations of Wyoming certainly do not fit the rest of the country.

 

As I stated, it's only my observation. We do have a noticeable homeless population and I work for the local community mental health center, I am exposed to them daily. Cheyenne has a large rail yard and they come in by rail, and we have the intersection of I80 and I25 . All 600 must flock to Cheyenne. There are shelters and infrastructure for them here, they come here for the great summers. I see the same folks every day and they do not practice any safety protocols. They live outdoors, sleep a lot, and get plenty of sunshine and fresh air. They do not comply with CDC guidelines and don't appear to have an overwhelming infection rate here in Cheyenne. Just my observation from sparsely populated Wyoming. I don't really put much faith in a system that is concerned about a virus that has killed 150,000 Americans and allows people to continue to smoke cigarettes that kill 480,000 annually. Yes, I do understand smoking is a voluntary action and not an infectious disease. 

[Still hand Bill]

On 8/3/2020 at 6:11 AM, Subdeacon Joe said:

C-19 is a new version of existing types.  It isn't as if they are having to start from ground zero on it. 

Also, we keep hearing 'It isn't like influenza at all!" and then those same people pointing to what worked in 1918 and saying we should do the same, implying that, yes, it is similar to influenza and that there have been no medical advances since then.

I would say we really don’t have anything substantially different to treat this that what existed in 1918.  We can treat infected people better, but we don’t have greatly improved tools for stopping the spread.     It might have been possible in the beginning. By contact tracing, bu that ship has sailed. 
 

I would also argue that without a vaccine, there is no way to stop most people from getting it.  All the social distancing and mask wearing simply slower the spread, ie how many people have it at once.  It doesn’t make it go away or stop it’s spread, just slow down how fast it spreads.  Looking at the data from 1918 it appears places that had fast spread initially actually had fewer total cases that those that slowed the spread.   I would guess that we will be living with this for another year or two until either a vaccine is released or enough people have had it to finally stop the spread through natural immunity. 

[Utah Bob #35998]

1 hour ago, Still hand Bill said:

I would say we really don’t have anything substantially different to treat this that what existed in 1918.  We can treat infected people better, but we don’t have greatly improved tools for stopping the spread.     It might have been possible in the beginning. By contact tracing, bu that ship has sailed. 
 

I would also argue that without a vaccine, there is no way to stop most people from getting it.  All the social distancing and mask wearing simply slower the spread, ie how many people have it at once.  It doesn’t make it go away or stop it’s spread, just slow down how fast it spreads.  Looking at the data from 1918 it appears places that had fast spread initially actually had fewer total cases that those that slowed the spread.   I would guess that we will be living with this for another year or two until either a vaccine is released or enough people have had it to finally stop the spread through natural immunity. 

The natural immunity, according to the research, may be only temporary though. I think a vaccine is the only solution. Unfortunately, thanks to the Internet, we now have thousands of anti-Vaccers now who won’t take an inoculation.

[Tex Jones, SASS 2263]

1 hour ago, Utah Bob #35998 said:

The natural immunity, according to the research, may be only temporary though. I think a vaccine is the only solution. Unfortunately, thanks to the Internet, we now have thousands of anti-Vaccers now who won’t take an inoculation.

Survival of the fittest, or the smartest, in this case.

[Warden Callaway]

It would have been an opportunity for a case study.  They should have tested every resident of Sturgis a week or two ago. Then come back and test the same people after the rally.  Then maybe again about end of month. 

 

I'd like to see more antibody testing done to see what percent of the population has had it and are now immune. 

[Warden Callaway]

Quote

More than 100 coronavirus cases in 8 states linked to massive Sturgis Motorcycle Rally in South Dakota.

 

This was the CBS headline yesterday.  103 actually out of estimated 400,000 people that attended   Go on and read and it really does not prove these 103 actually cought the virus at the rally.  Just that they were there and now have the virus.  Anyway,  103 out of a population of 400,000 is a very small %.  I'd say they were safer there than any large city. 

[Wyatt Earp SASS#1628L]

4 hours ago, Warden Callaway said:

 

This was the CBS headline yesterday.  103 actually out of estimated 400,000 people that attended   Go on and read and it really does not prove these 103 actually cought the virus at the rally.  Just that they were there and now have the virus.  Anyway,  103 out of a population of 400,000 is a very small %.  I'd say they were safer there than any large city. 

That's why I called it the Great Sturgis Experiment.

[watab kid]

On 8/3/2020 at 6:24 AM, Blackwater 53393 said:

 

Losing ones rights, property, livelihood, and possibly ones freedom is a bit more than an annoyance, don’t you think??

isnt this what we have always objected to and isnt this exactly the government our founders tried to protect us from ? 

[Loophole LaRue, SASS #51438]

In late February, 175 executives from Biogen, a biotech company, attended a series of meetings in a hotel in Boston.  Within a week, dozens reported flu-like symptoms.  Last week, reports emerged indicating that scientists have traced the origin of over 20,000 cases of Covid 19 to attendees at those meetings.

 

Excuse me if I decide to wear a mask and stay home until a vaccine is available.

 

LL

[Redleg Reilly, SASS #46372]

You may be home for a long time if you wait for the vaccine.  And like the flu, this thing is mutating and whatever vaccine comes out, it will probably not be completely effective (life the flu vaccine).  Bottom line is this is not going to be "gone" so if you are at home waiting for a cure it is not coming.