Very good, sensible article on how COVID spreads

[Dusty Devil Dale]

1 hour ago, Yul Lose said:

So if they tell you that it’ll be 18 more months or so before you’ll be safe from covid are you going to remain locked away from society? If they keep these lockdowns and other measures in place much longer our society won’t be much different than Venezuela.

Yeah, certainly there are lots of other things to consider.  We all have needs, hobbies, jobs, businesses, and family/friend needs that pull us into less safe zones.    We have to find a comfort level, considering our own health conditions/needs and the needs of those we care about.  That's true, I believe, of just about everything that we do. 

 

I'll open my gate to go out and buy what I need (or want) or to assist friends or family, but while I'm out there, I will practice careful management of whom I get close to, for how long, noting how protected they appear, and be real careful what I touch.  I'll wear an N-95 mask and gloves in any uncertain environment, and wash my hands and use hand sanitizer frequently.  I learned good sterile technique working in virology labs during college +-50 years ago (doing post-grad research on Hantavirus, and wearing yellow suits ).  I plan to use that knowledge. 

 

If I participate in designing CAS shoots for our club (likely),  I'll do what I can to provide reasonable precautions and safe environments to each shooter.  I thought the OP article had some value toward that end.  

 

I am personally lucky to have a couple good sized ranches to work and move around on.  I might make different decisions and take on more risk if I was confined to a smaller home/yard, or apartment.  

 

Frankly, (admittedly a bit to the side of topic) my biggest worry right now isn't COVID.  It is the politicizing of COVID with respect to the upcoming elections.   The national bankruptcy and Socialism-Communism that the Democrats seem to be trying to crowd us into next November will abruptly and materially change all of our lives.  If they get their way, everything we have and enjoy will become restricted or redistributed.  I'm praying that Trump makes correct decisions on managing COVID, which I feel will be the crux of the November crossroads election.   I'm also praying that somebody actively attacks all the election/ voter fraud that I'm envisioning occurring.  Without my individual liberty and right to choose, I just couldn't feel like, a whole person.  

 

[Roscoe Regulator]

22 minutes ago, Yul Lose said:

So if they tell you that it’ll be 18 more months or so before you’ll be safe from covid are you going to remain locked away from society? If they keep these lockdowns and other measures in place much longer our society won’t be much different than Venezuela.

25 minutes ago, Captain Bill Burt said:

I totally agree!  I think the opposition to Chloroquine as a treatment is almost completely due to the fact that Trump promoted it as a potential cure and the media and liberals (but I repeat myself) can't stand to admit he might have been right.

Trump should be careful though, or we could wind up with President Pelosi, second in line after VP Pence. That said, maybe we go down a political path here.

[Ozark Huckleberry]

4 minutes ago, Roscoe Regulator said:

Trump should be careful though, or we could wind up with President Pelosi, second in line after VP Pence. That said, maybe we go down a political path here.

Thanks — I was trying to forget that we could be just two bad sneezes away from her in the Oval Office. 

[Dusty Devil Dale]

2 hours ago, Captain Bill Burt said:

I hope I'm wrong.

 

Be aware, there are 'experts' who think the virus definitely does attack the vascular system. 

 

A belief is that Covid attacks at a cellular level through tissues that contain ACE2 cells which it binds to, penetrates, and turns into little Covid factories. Those cells are prevalent in the heart, brain, lungs, kidneys, blood vessels, adipose tissue and so forth.  That is believed to be the reason why people with high blood pressure, obesity, heart issues, etc. are particularly vulnerable to the disease.  It's believed that may also explain why people with type O blood tend to have better outcomes, fewer ACE2 cells.  As I stated, trying to improve your health won't do anything to prevent contracting the disease, but it certainly could help in fighting it off.

 

Again, I'm no expert, but the articles I've read strongly indicate that, losing weight, strengthening your cardiovascular system, and taking steps to improve your immune response (vitamin D, Zinc and Vitamin C among others) can all be very beneficial in terms of outcomes from Covid.  Having said all that, if you're predisposed to the disease and pick up a big viral load, none of that may make a difference.

If you're really worried Triple D I suggest you supplement with Zinc every day.   Buy some Zinc lozenges and if you start feeling ill start taking them too.  Zinc has been proven to help with the common cold, which is a corona virus.  BTW, the older you are, the more likely you are Zinc deficient, starting at about 50.  Some studies are showing that Chloroquine without Zinc isn't effective, and it's an established fact that Chloroquine helps transport Zinc into the cells.

 

Starting to see a pattern......?

We agree on a lot of points, especially on good vascular health being important.   My zinc levels have always been quite high, probably due to welding exposure.  But it certainly hasn't ever saved me from an annual cold virus.  I'm more a believer in vaccines and antibodies.  

 

You being into fitness, try my 70th birthday challenge, last November.  With enthusiastic support from my two neighbors, one of whom is an ER doctor:

 

In one hour (actually 70 min.) 

   70 push-ups, 

   70 pull ups, 

    70 sit ups

 in any order or set combination.

 

Carry 70 pounds up and back down 70 stadium stairs 35 times (70 one way trips)

 

Swim 70 Olympic (short pool 25 yd) laps. (+-1 mile) 

 

Bicycle 70 open road kilometers. 

 

It took me 10-1/2 hours to do, then 10-1/2 days to recover, except my hip still hurts badly. But it was a lot of fun.   Don't try to do it without working up to it.  

 

[Captain Bill Burt]

9 minutes ago, Dusty Devil Dale said:

We agree on a lot of points, especially on good vascular health being important.   My zinc levels have always been quite high, probably due to welding exposure.  But it certainly hasn't ever saved me from an annual cold virus.  I'm more a believer in vaccines and antibodies.  

 

I believe in vaccines and antibodies too.  Unfortunately there is no vaccine for Covid and I'm not going to deliberately infect myself so I can develop antibodies.

 

To be clear, I'm not aware of any claims that zinc prevents the common cold, or Covid.  The claims (and studies in the case of the common cold) are that having sufficient zinc lessens the severity of corona virus infections and speeds recovery.

 

Here's a quote:  

This Cochrane review provides convincing evidence from 13 randomized placebo-controlled trials that taking zinc soon after the onset of symptoms of the common cold significantly reduces both the duration and severity of symptoms. Zinc supplements are widely available over the counter, so you can recommend that patients take zinc the next time they develop a cold.

 

Here's the link

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3273967/

[John Kloehr]

OK, going back a few posts to show if the lockdown did any good (it being worth it is a completely different question).

 

There is a company called Kinsa that makes a thermometer. People who like gadgets buy it because it is a gadget... Bluetooth on it connects to a phone app, and the data is logged to a server. This is handy for instance if a lady wants to get pregnant as she can see (and predict) ovulation. It also means if one of the customers gets a fever, this is also logged. And there are enough customers to get a good read (statistically significant) on the community in much of the country.

 

So Kinsa anonymizes the data and provides it to Oregon State University which has mapped -- and is mapping -- the data. The health care industry (and our government) has been using this data for a long time to predict flu outbreaks because, quite simply, a bunch of people in a location get a fever just before a bunch of people start going to the doctor. So, this information is a leading indicator if ILI (Influenza Like Illness).

 

And CoVid19 is an ILI. So are HKU1, NL63, H1N1, etc.

 

So thanks for staying with me so far. Back to the question. Did the lockdown have a positive effect?

 

We locked down in the middle of March. Here is the history form my county in Tennessee:

 

 

As you can see, something was going on (people had fevers). And then we locked down. The blue line in the middle is the predicted average from many years... Well, it was until the lockdown... The blue line is the middle of the expected illness range, the light blue region shows the normal range. See how the blue line suddenly nosedives? A linear regression shows that is "the new average" based only on the data this year. The data analysts did change the average expectation. Without changing the trend through regression, the data was not showing anything happening at all even in New York. People are just not as sick as they normally would be.

 

And you see that little bounce of the yellow line off the bottom? I can trace that to another blip from Cocke County to my east. Local transmission of "something" was going on. But it was so below the expected average that it was not even tickling the "atypical" line.

 

 

Go check out your county on the map. You can find it at:

 

https://healthweather.us/?regionId=47029&mode=Observed

 

What effect did lockdown have in your county? That is, if you locked down.

[Ozark Shark]

New info from the CDC which is good news for our shoots:  https://www.foxnews.com/health/cdc-now-says-coronavirus-does-not-spread-easily-via-contaminated-surfaces

 

[Roscoe Regulator]

1 hour ago, John Kloehr said:

OK, going back a few posts to show if the lockdown did any good (it being worth it is a completely different question).

 

There is a company called Kinsa that makes a thermometer. People who like gadgets buy it because it is a gadget... Bluetooth on it connects to a phone app, and the data is logged to a server. This is handy for instance if a lady wants to get pregnant as she can see (and predict) ovulation. It also means if one of the customers gets a fever, this is also logged. And there are enough customers to get a good read (statistically significant) on the community in much of the country.

 

So Kinsa anonymizes the data and provides it to Oregon State University which has mapped -- and is mapping -- the data. The health care industry (and our government) has been using this data for a long time to predict flu outbreaks because, quite simply, a bunch of people in a location get a fever just before a bunch of people start going to the doctor. So, this information is a leading indicator if ILI (Influenza Like Illness).

 

And CoVid19 is an ILI. So are HKU1, NL63, H1N1, etc.

 

So thanks for staying with me so far. Back to the question. Did the lockdown have a positive effect?

 

We locked down in the middle of March. Here is the history form my county in Tennessee:

 

 

As you can see, something was going on (people had fevers). And then we locked down. The blue line in the middle is the predicted average from many years... Well, it was until the lockdown... The blue line is the middle of the expected illness range, the light blue region shows the normal range. See how the blue line suddenly nosedives? A linear regression shows that is "the new average" based only on the data this year. The data analysts did change the average expectation. Without changing the trend through regression, the data was not showing anything happening at all even in New York. People are just not as sick as they normally would be.

 

And you see that little bounce of the yellow line off the bottom? I can trace that to another blip from Cocke County to my east. Local transmission of "something" was going on. But it was so below the expected average that it was not even tickling the "atypical" line.

 

 

Go check out your county on the map. You can find it at:

 

https://healthweather.us/?regionId=47029&mode=Observed

 

What effect did lockdown have in your county? That is, if you locked down.

I didn't catch what conclusions you are drawing, kinda getting lost in the details. Did the lockdown do any good or not? What exactly does the data tell us from ground level?

[Captain Bill Burt]

1 hour ago, John Kloehr said:

OK, going back a few posts to show if the lockdown did any good (it being worth it is a completely different question).

 

There is a company called Kinsa that makes a thermometer. People who like gadgets buy it because it is a gadget... Bluetooth on it connects to a phone app, and the data is logged to a server. This is handy for instance if a lady wants to get pregnant as she can see (and predict) ovulation. It also means if one of the customers gets a fever, this is also logged. And there are enough customers to get a good read (statistically significant) on the community in much of the country.

 

So Kinsa anonymizes the data and provides it to Oregon State University which has mapped -- and is mapping -- the data. The health care industry (and our government) has been using this data for a long time to predict flu outbreaks because, quite simply, a bunch of people in a location get a fever just before a bunch of people start going to the doctor. So, this information is a leading indicator if ILI (Influenza Like Illness).

 

And CoVid19 is an ILI. So are HKU1, NL63, H1N1, etc.

 

So thanks for staying with me so far. Back to the question. Did the lockdown have a positive effect?

 

We locked down in the middle of March. Here is the history form my county in Tennessee:

 

 

As you can see, something was going on (people had fevers). And then we locked down. The blue line in the middle is the predicted average from many years... Well, it was until the lockdown... The blue line is the middle of the expected illness range, the light blue region shows the normal range. See how the blue line suddenly nosedives? A linear regression shows that is "the new average" based only on the data this year. The data analysts did change the average expectation. Without changing the trend through regression, the data was not showing anything happening at all even in New York. People are just not as sick as they normally would be.

 

And you see that little bounce of the yellow line off the bottom? I can trace that to another blip from Cocke County to my east. Local transmission of "something" was going on. But it was so below the expected average that it was not even tickling the "atypical" line.

 

 

Go check out your county on the map. You can find it at:

 

https://healthweather.us/?regionId=47029&mode=Observed

 

What effect did lockdown have in your county? That is, if you locked down.

Yeah, I saw the Kinsa health map too.  Interesting.  It's not surprising that the lockdown slowed the flu way down.  Of course if I catch the flu, it would almost certainly be brought home from school via my children.  Covid doesn't seem to use children as vectors.  

 

Locking down an entire state to stop Covid is like burning your house down to get rid of roaches.  It might work, but there are other ways that get rid of the roaches and let you keep your house. 

 

It's striking the difference between how DeSantis handled nursing homes in FL and Cuomo did in NY.  THATS where the concern should be focused. DeSantis isolated Covid cases and didn't let them back in nursing homes.  Cuomo required nursing homes to take active Covid patients.

 

Florida 71,000 nursing home residents with 655 dead from Covid as of May 8th.

 

New York 117,000 nursing home residents with 5,000 dead from Covid as of May 5th.

[LostVaquero]

Corona virus  that causes COVID-19 is not an ILI (influnza like virus) it is clasdified as a SARI (severe respiratory respiratory infection).  Common colds are rhino viruses. 

 

Please remember the current pandemic virus is not the same as influenza. 

[LostVaquero]

7 minutes ago, Captain Bill Burt said:

Yeah, I saw the Kinsa health map too.  Interesting.  It's not surprising that the lockdown slowed the flu way down.  Of course if I catch the flu, it would almost certainly be brought home from school via my children.  Covid doesn't seem to use children as vectors.  

 

Locking down an entire state to stop Covid is like burning your house down to get rid of roaches.  It might work, but there are other ways that get rid of the roaches and let you keep your house. 

 

It's striking the difference between how DeSantis handled nursing homes in FL and Cuomo did in NY.  THATS where the concern should be focused. DeSantis isolated Covid cases and didn't let them back in nursing homes.  Cuomo required nursing homes to take active Covid patients.

 

Florida 71,000 nursing home residents with 655 dead from Covid as of May 8th.

 

New York 117,000 nursing home residents with 5,000 dead from Covid as of May 5th.

Always easier to hindsight arm chair quarterback.  It is what it was.  Timento move on see how things go.

[Captain Bill Burt]

18 minutes ago, LostVaquero said:

Always easier to hindsight arm chair quarterback.  It is what it was.  Timento move on see how things go.

Excuse me, but I'm comparing how two people, armed with the same information, made different decisions which led to drastically different outcomes. That's not 'arm chair' quarterbacking anymore than stating that Peyton is a better quarterback than Cam is armchair quarterbacking.   It's observing different results and concluding who did a better job.

 

 DeSantis wasn't using hindsight, as he was faced with the problem at the same time as Cuomo.  Yet the press lauds Cuomo and mocks DeSantis.

[LostVaquero]

There is also a lot of indication Florida is fudging statistics.

[Colorado Coffinmaker]

 

Let us remember a tenant of statistics.  If you don't like the result, manipulate the data.

 

Or, as Captain America says, it's really simple.  Do LESS testing.  With less testing, you get fewer cases.  Simple.

 

Right now, NOBODY but NOBODY knows what is going to happen next.  The last thing to do is believe ANYTHING coming out of the administration.

[Roscoe Regulator]

8 minutes ago, Colorado Coffinmaker said:

 

Let us remember a tenant of statistics.  If you don't like the result, manipulate the data.

 

Or, as Captain America says, it's really simple.  Do LESS testing.  With less testing, you get fewer cases.  Simple.

 

Right now, NOBODY but NOBODY knows what is going to happen next.  The last thing to do is believe ANYTHING coming out of the administration.

We seem to think it fashionable to write stuff like that, but I voted for the President, the Governor, my House Rep, and both Senators to represent me and I intend to cooperate, barring any blatant disregard for my well being. My ill will is instead toward congressional dysfunction caused by Democrats suffering from PTSD (President Trump Stress Disorder).

[Captain Bill Burt]

37 minutes ago, LostVaquero said:

There is also a lot of indication Florida is fudging statistics.

For instance?

[LostVaquero]

23 minutes ago, Captain Bill Burt said:

For instance?

Florida ordered coroners not to release full information on people that have passed away citing privacy concerns and not counting if it was from Covid 19.

Then there was the public firing of Dr. Rebekah Jones. 

 

Of course you have your opinion and I have mine. 

 

I think this has moved enough off topic and like I said before.  Whatever the case is, it is just time to move forward.

[Captain Bill Burt]

27 minutes ago, LostVaquero said:

Florida ordered coroners not to release full information on people that have passed away citing privacy concerns and not counting if it was from Covid 19.

Then there was the public firing of Dr. Rebekah Jones. 

 

Of course you have your opinion and I have mine. 

 

I think this has moved enough off topic and like I said before.  Whatever the case is, it is just time to move forward.

Yeah I read about that. Seems they don’t want to release names and refused to classify 50 something deaths as being caused by Covid because the tests hadn’t come back positive yet.

 

How dare they not classify those deaths as being caused by Covid just because the dead people hadn’t tested positive for Covid yet! 

 

Here's the headline "Florida coronavirus deaths are higher than the numbers in official reports."  Here's what the article is complaining about 

 

"But medical examiners in Broward, Miami-Dade and Palm Beach counties, who represent the hardest-hit part of Florida, have flagged 59 additional deaths that may have resulted from the disease and for which they’re awaiting test results. Although a few of these may have been included in the Thursday evening death count, this figure represents a significant backlog that is certain to raise the total.

Don't believe me though, here's the link to the article

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/florida-coronavirus-deaths-are-higher-than-numbers-in-official-reports/ar-BB127xSA

 

If that's not reporting driven by an agenda I don't know what is.

We do have different opinions. In my opinion if you don't have a positive test result for Covid, it's probably a good idea not to attribute the death to Covid.

 

Rebekah Jones has a degree in geography and was fired for insubordination - making changes to the state's Covid dashboard without approval.   Again, don't take my word for it. Go here:

 

https://tallahasseereports.com/2020/05/20/rebekah-jones-firing-is-the-covid-clickbait-the-media-dreams-of-but-its-all-fake/

 

Time will tell. Let’s come back to this in a month.

[John Kloehr]

2 hours ago, Roscoe Regulator said:

I didn't catch what conclusions you are drawing, kinda getting lost in the details. Did the lockdown do any good or not? What exactly does the data tell us from ground level?

Conclusion: The lockdowns stopped ILI in its tracks.

 

Coronaviruses (HKU1, NL63, Sars-Cov-2, and two others) are ILIs. ILI just means the presence of flu-like symptoms.

 

The Kinsa fever maps, in addition to already being known as an early warning proxy for flu, showed the same positive correlation with CoViD19 (which has fever as a known early symptom).

[John Kloehr]

2 hours ago, LostVaquero said:

Corona virus  that causes COVID-19 is not an ILI (influnza like virus) it is clasdified as a SARI (severe respiratory respiratory infection).  Common colds are rhino viruses. 

 

Please remember the current pandemic virus is not the same as influenza. 

See my post above. Kinsa temperature data correlates with pending CoViD19 outbreaks. Just based on the fever symptom. ILI means influenza-like, not influenza specifically. The common coronaviruses all cause ILI by symptomology.

[Baltimore Ed]

Thanks for posting the article, Dusty. Interesting thing to me that the wearing or not of masks has become so politicized with the demoncrats being pro mask while trumpers being anti mask. While I voted against hillary and am an independent i wear a mask when I go out and give non mask wearers some distance. Wouldn’t it be unfortunate if trump were to loose the election by the number of trumpers who will die from covid because they didn’t practice social distancing and mask wearing. Covid doesn’t care what your political persuasion is, if it gets in you it will make you sick. Maybe a little or maybe a lot. It’s not a civil rights thing, its a public safety thing. 100,000 Americans and more to come. Wear a mask until there is a vaccine so we can all be here in November. 

[Marauder SASS #13056]

How long should it take to develop a vaccine?

 

Think of polio.

 

They have been working for a vaccine or treatment for HIV for how long?  Can we wait that long to open business so that people can eat and live?

 

Also keep in mind that for proper testing for a safe vaccine, you need to check long term effects.  I know from study that CDC no longer follows the old safer procedures.  One company found that with one vaccine, a significant population was developing mental issues.  So they kept making the vaccine and started making another vaccine to deal with the "side effects."

 

Also the laws now say that if you are testing a normal drug, your data has to be open to others.  But the laws now say, for vaccines, you can keep your results secret!  This is truly scary and very few people realize how the safety standards have been greatly weakened.

 

We do need vaccines, but relatively safe vaccines.

 

And, yes, I wear a mask even though I tested negative.  It helps others feel better.  I know my simple mask will do almost nothing to protect me, but if it helps others, that's fine.

 

A mask IS helpful to reduce the spread when worn by infected people.

[Roscoe Regulator]

50 minutes ago, Baltimore Ed said:

Thanks for posting the article, Dusty. Interesting thing to me that the wearing or not of masks has become so politicized with the demoncrats being pro mask while trumpers being anti mask. While I voted against hillary and am an independent i wear a mask when I go out and give non mask wearers some distance. Wouldn’t it be unfortunate if trump were to loose the election by the number of trumpers who will die from covid because they didn’t practice social distancing and mask wearing. Covid doesn’t care what your political persuasion is, if it gets in you it will make you sick. Maybe a little or maybe a lot. It’s not a civil rights thing, its a public safety thing. 100,000 Americans and more to come. Wear a mask until there is a vaccine so we can all be here in November. 

My understanding is that if wearing a mask and even gloves, one can still get infected through the eyes. So, it is in everyone's best interest to keep respiration particulates out of the air when in confined areas or otherwise close to others. A mask may be more for others than it is protection for ourselves. That's why it's okay to be unhappy with others who don't wear a mask. It's not that we worry about them catching something. It is because they raise the odds of infecting others, prolonging the outbreak. One should act with a sense of community.