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Very good, sensible article on how COVID spreads


Dusty Devil Dale

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Here's a link to a very clear, data based article, with good info about how COVID spreads and how to avoid getting an infective dose of viral particles.  It should be useful to those trying to set up matches and events during the reopening.  It's also a good guide to staying healthy at other venues.   Worth the time to read.  Use however you wish.  

 

https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them

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Very kind of you to link the article.  Having said that, and not meaning to reflect on you at all DDD, I think the article has a major flaw.  The author, a veterinarian not a people doctor, posits that very few states have seen a decline in the numbers of new infections.  Right there his bias comes through. 

 

We have no way of knowing the numbers of new infections.  Using the numbers of positive results as a proxy, which is what he does, is seriously flawed.  If we were administering the same number of tests week over week, that might work, but we're not.  Testing is ramping up, so the number of positive results are expected to go up with that.


What this guy is claiming is analogous to putting a single state trooper on the highways in Georgia on May 3rd and counting how many speeders he sees.  Two weeks later we put 10 state troopers on the highways in Georgia and count the number of speeders they all see.  We then conclude that a lot more people are speeding now than were on May 3rd. Incorrect conclusion.  

 

A more accurate measure would be hospitalizations or deaths.  Here in Georgia, both of those have declined since we reopened.  If he is correct how could that happen?  Our 7 day rolling average of Covid deaths was 33 when we reopened.  As of today it's 29.

 

The rest of what he says about where you are at risk makes sense to me.

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Sadly, we know so very little about the virus.  China lied quite a bit.  Even New York played with the numbers.

 

The CDC guidelines were intentionally forcing Doctors to credit deaths to COVID 19 when it was not the actual cause - and sometimes without any evidence of the patient even having it.

So it makes it so difficult.

But there has been a lot a agenda-driven propaganda.

From what we are now learning, it is having the impact of the more common flu - yes, sadly there have been deaths but most likely  no more than the last couple years of flu.

 

That does not mean we should not be careful.  And we need to all wash our hands as we knew we should.

 

The masks will NOT stop you from catching the virus, but if you have it, they will reduce the risk t others.

Taking vitamin C and D is helpful as well to improve your immunity.

 

And finally, more lives have been and will be destroyed by the required shutdowns that the actual virus deaths.  I personally know of a few deaths that have been the result of the shutdowns - delayed critical surgeries, etc. 

 

And I am now battling a very serious infection that resulted to the impact of worry and shutdown over COVID.

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Very good article. Thanks for posting.

 

Ned

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43 minutes ago, Captain Bill Burt said:

What this guy is claiming

Actually, I think the "guy" is a woman.  I don't think she was trying to make any political points, or construe anything.  She just wanted to get info out on what the data shows, regarding how to best avoid the virus.  Like I said, use it however you wish.  As for me, I think I'll be avoiding restaurants and restrooms, at least for a time.   

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Just now, Dusty Devil Dale said:

Actually, I think the "guy" is a woman.  

These days it's hard to tell.  We have 'men' giving birth and women with penises, so who knows.

 

One thing that I think is wonderful about conservative women is that they don't have penises.

13 minutes ago, Marauder SASS #13056 said:

Sadly, we know so very little about the virus.  China lied quite a bit.  Even New York played with the numbers.

 

The CDC guidelines were intentionally forcing Doctors to credit deaths to COVID 19 when it was not the actual cause - and sometimes without any evidence of the patient even having it.

So it makes it so difficult.

But there has been a lot a agenda-driven propaganda.

From what we are now learning, it is having the impact of the more common flu - yes, sadly there have been deaths but most likely  no more than the last couple years of flu.

 

That does not mean we should not be careful.  And we need to all wash our hands as we knew we should.

 

The masks will NOT stop you from catching the virus, but if you have it, they will reduce the risk t others.

Taking vitamin C and D is helpful as well to improve your immunity.

 

And finally, more lives have been and will be destroyed by the required shutdowns that the actual virus deaths.  I personally know of a few deaths that have been the result of the shutdowns - delayed critical surgeries, etc. 

 

And I am now battling a very serious infection that resulted to the impact of worry and shutdown over COVID.

I hope you get better soon Marauder!  I suggest adding Zinc to the Vitamin C and D!  There are quite a few 'experts' who think Zinc deficiencies contribute to Covid mortality.

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1 hour ago, Captain Bill Burt said:

Very kind of you to link the article.  Having said that, and not meaning to reflect on you at all DDD, I think the article has a major flaw.  The author, a veterinarian not a people doctor, posits that very few states have seen a decline in the numbers of new infections.  Right there his bias comes through. 

 

We have no way of knowing the numbers of new infections.  Using the numbers of positive results as a proxy, which is what he does, is seriously flawed.  If we were administering the same number of tests week over week, that might work, but we're not.  Testing is ramping up, so the number of positive results are expected to go up with that.


What this guy is claiming is analogous to putting a single state trooper on the highways in Georgia on May 3rd and counting how many speeders he sees.  Two weeks later we put 10 state troopers on the highways in Georgia and count the number of speeders they all see.  We then conclude that a lot more people are speeding now than were on May 3rd. Incorrect conclusion.  

 

A more accurate measure would be hospitalizations or deaths.  Here in Georgia, both of those have declined since we reopened.  If he is correct how could that happen?  Our 7 day rolling average of Covid deaths was 33 when we reopened.  As of today it's 29.

 

The rest of what he says about where you are at risk makes sense to me.

The stat that justifies (or not) all this is the dynamic number of hospital beds available, tracking those actually threatened by virus symptoms. The concern was supposedly that the health care system could be overwhelmed without taking extraordinary precautions, now held in place fearing odds of a major outbreak.

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1 hour ago, Dusty Devil Dale said:

Actually, I think the "guy" is a woman...

 

1 hour ago, Captain Bill Burt said:

These days it's hard to tell.  We have 'men' giving birth and women with penises, so who knows.

 

One thing that I think is wonderful about conservative women is that they don't have penises.

if-you-see-a-bulge-in-a-conservative-wom

35 minutes ago, Roscoe Regulator said:

The stat that justifies (or not) all this is the dynamic number of hospital beds available, tracking those actually threatened by virus symptoms. The concern was supposedly that the health care system could be overwhelmed without taking extraordinary precautions, now held in place fearing odds of a major outbreak.

It seems the shutdown stopped the common cold and flu season in it's tracks, so the shutdown did have positive effects. As we loosen up, we still need to be careful and do what we can independent of the politics of the situation.

12285-custom-engraved-unisex-stick-figur

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If you read to the bottom they use the terms, he and his.  I think you just got off track a bit with Erin.  While
in the US mostly a girls name but author is ftom Australia.

 

Sort like Marion, as in Marion Morrison.

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1 hour ago, LostVaquero said:

If you read to the bottom they use the terms, he and his.  I think you just got off track a bit with Erin.  While
in the US mostly a girls name but author is ftom Australia.

 

Sort like Marion, as in Marion Morrison.

Interesting.  I need to look again.  Regardless, I thought he/she wrote a pretty good article that, for a welcome change, is data based and not just somebody's opinions.   I thought it interesting that they actually differentiated outdoor activities like ours from indoor sports events, as far as risk is concerned.  All in all, I thought the author had a lot of worthwhile info to share.  

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4 hours ago, Captain Bill Burt said:

What this guy is claiming is analogous to putting a single state trooper on the highways in Georgia on May 3rd and counting how many speeders he sees.  Two weeks later we put 10 state troopers on the highways in Georgia and count the number of speeders they all see.  We then conclude that a lot more people are speeding now than were on May 3rd. Incorrect conclusion.  

 

A more accurate measure would be hospitalizations or deaths.  Here in Georgia, both of those have declined since we reopened.  If he is correct how could that happen?  Our 7 day rolling average of Covid deaths was 33 when we reopened.  As of today it's 29.

Another good metric is the change in percent of tests with positive results, over particular time frames.  

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24 minutes ago, Dusty Devil Dale said:

Another good metric is the change in percent of tests with positive results, over particular time frames.  

Yes and no...

 

We are switching from testing sick people in the hospital to testing them and their contacts to wholesale testing of the population. So I expect the rate to drop just because it is a different population.

 

There have been at least two "wholesale" testing events locally. I live in a major tourist destination. The number of positive results here so far is in line with the false positive rates of the tests (but some of them were sick). That is OK for management of an outbreak. If there are suddenly 10 times as many positive results, then we need to pay attention. Even if some of them are false results, a change above baseline is important.

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I've followed the statistics from early on.  One website is:

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

 

What made me more curious is how much the numbers changed as time went on.  They eventually changed the format as well.

 

In early to mid-April, Georgia showed raw numbers with one day with 99 deaths and the numbers indicated the peak was past. 

 

Now the numbers are completely different and the format makes it less clear.

 

When I see such changes I have to believe something is very wrong.  They are either incompetent or agenda driven.  Interviews with various Doctors indicate that a lot has been agenda driven plus a lot of faulty test results as well.

 

So there is some common sense advice, but a growing amount of propaganda and censoring.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sPrbGU0Wyh4

 

As shooters, we are all pretty familiar with how anti-gunners can twist data and truth.  We are definitely seeing that big time right now and the most censorship I've ever seen in the U.S.

 

Hopefully, we will eventually know more, but we have to make the best decisions we can right now.

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50 minutes ago, Marauder SASS #13056 said:

I've followed the statistics from early on.  One website is:

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

 

What made me more curious is how much the numbers changed as time went on.  They eventually changed the format as well.

 

In early to mid-April, Georgia showed raw numbers with one day with 99 deaths and the numbers indicated the peak was past. 

 

Now the numbers are completely different and the format makes it less clear.

 

When I see such changes I have to believe something is very wrong.  They are either incompetent or agenda driven.  Interviews with various Doctors indicate that a lot has been agenda driven plus a lot of faulty test results as well.

 

So there is some common sense advice, but a growing amount of propaganda and censoring.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sPrbGU0Wyh4

 

As shooters, we are all pretty familiar with how anti-gunners can twist data and truth.  We are definitely seeing that big time right now and the most censorship I've ever seen in the U.S.

 

Hopefully, we will eventually know more, but we have to make the best decisions we can right now.

Well, the article at the beginning of this thread uses the NYT's database which has been shown to be highly error ridden.  I wouldn't base any decision on it.  And the data quoted was only through May 3.  Lots has changed since then.  I don't blame you for questioning covid19.healthdata.  It is funded by Gates which is why I watch it closely for bias.  That said, there is often issues with the raw data sent that takes time to validate and cleanse.  I think that along with the change in metrics being reported is what you observed.  My analytics team is pulling and comparing data from multiple sources including covid19.heathdata and Johns Hopkins covid19 tracker to prepare analyses.  We're not observing any significant bias in the covid19.healthdata.  And the good news is with all the credible sources the key indicators peaked in April and have been on a healthy, historically normal downward curve since.   The US has also hit the 1% of population test per day threshold which finally makes the actual case numbers more statistically meaningful.

 

I share your concern on this being abused to support agendas and the censorship of other points of view.  Epidemiologists long held as leaders in their field are being kept out of this discussion by the tech giants, the CDC and the WHO.   There's big money on the line for those currently being allowed a voice which is why I question their motives in silencing other knowledgeable opinions.  FOLLOW THE MONEY  it will lead you to the truth.

 

https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/05/15/we-could-open-up-again-and-forget-the-whole-thing/ 

https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/05/18/why-is-youtube-censoring-scientists/

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, John Kloehr said:

Yes and no...

 

We are switching from testing sick people in the hospital to testing them and their contacts to wholesale testing of the population. So I expect the rate to drop just because it is a different population.

 

There have been at least two "wholesale" testing events locally. I live in a major tourist destination. The number of positive results here so far is in line with the false positive rates of the tests (but some of them were sick). That is OK for management of an outbreak. If there are suddenly 10 times as many positive results, then we need to pay attention. Even if some of them are false results, a change above baseline is important.

Agree.  Who is getting tested will always be a key variable.  I think test so far have mostly been people asking to be tested because they suspected exposure.  That's a long ways from a fully random sample.  But theoretically, if the same selection criteria are used and remain unchanged, (if that's possible), then changes over time should be indicative of change in  population infection levels. 

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7 hours ago, Marauder SASS #13056 said:

...But there has been a lot a agenda-driven propaganda...

 

 

There is plenty of agenda-driven propaganda right here on the SASS Wire.

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11 hours ago, Captain Bill Burt said:

Very kind of you to link the article.  Having said that, and not meaning to reflect on you at all DDD, I think the article has a major flaw.  The author, a veterinarian not a people doctor, posits that very few states have seen a decline in the numbers of new infections.  Right there his bias comes through. 

 

We have no way of knowing the numbers of new infections.  Using the numbers of positive results as a proxy, which is what he does, is seriously flawed.  If we were administering the same number of tests week over week, that might work, but we're not.  Testing is ramping up, so the number of positive results are expected to go up with that.


What this guy is claiming is analogous to putting a single state trooper on the highways in Georgia on May 3rd and counting how many speeders he sees.  Two weeks later we put 10 state troopers on the highways in Georgia and count the number of speeders they all see.  We then conclude that a lot more people are speeding now than were on May 3rd. Incorrect conclusion.  

 

A more accurate measure would be hospitalizations or deaths.  Here in Georgia, both of those have declined since we reopened.  If he is correct how could that happen?  Our 7 day rolling average of Covid deaths was 33 when we reopened.  As of today it's 29.

 

The rest of what he says about where you are at risk makes sense to me.

 

 

Thank you for you highly educated and technical critique of what this guy said.

This guy is lucky to have people like you point out his errors.

 

This guy:

About the author

 

Erin S. Bromage, Ph.D., is an Associate Professor of Biology at the University of Massachusetts Dartmouth. Dr. Bromage graduated from the School of Veterinary and Biomedical Sciences James Cook University, Australia where his research focused on the epidemiology of, and immunity to, infectious disease in animals. His Post-Doctoral training was at the College of William and Mary, Virginia Institute of Marine Science in the Comparative Immunology Laboratory of late Dr. Stephen Kaattari.

 

Dr. Bromage’s research focuses on the evolution of the immune system, the immunological mechanisms responsible for protection from infectious disease, and the design and use of vaccines to control infectious disease in animals. He also focuses on designing diagnostic tools to detect biological and chemical threats in the environment in real-time.

 

Dr. Bromage joined the Faculty of the University of Massachusetts Dartmouth in 2007 where he teaches courses in Immunology and Infectious disease, including a course this semester on the Ecology of Infectious Disease which focused on the emerging SARS-CoV2 outbreak in China.

 

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1 hour ago, Palo Verde, SASS # 56522 said:

 

 

Thank you for you highly educated and technical critique of what this guy said.

This guy is lucky to have people like you point out his errors.

 

This guy:

About the author

 

Erin S. Bromage, Ph.D., is an Associate Professor of Biology at the University of Massachusetts Dartmouth. Dr. Bromage graduated from the School of Veterinary and Biomedical Sciences James Cook University, Australia where his research focused on the epidemiology of, and immunity to, infectious disease in animals. His Post-Doctoral training was at the College of William and Mary, Virginia Institute of Marine Science in the Comparative Immunology Laboratory of late Dr. Stephen Kaattari.

 

Dr. Bromage’s research focuses on the evolution of the immune system, the immunological mechanisms responsible for protection from infectious disease, and the design and use of vaccines to control infectious disease in animals. He also focuses on designing diagnostic tools to detect biological and chemical threats in the environment in real-time.

 

Dr. Bromage joined the Faculty of the University of Massachusetts Dartmouth in 2007 where he teaches courses in Immunology and Infectious disease, including a course this semester on the Ecology of Infectious Disease which focused on the emerging SARS-CoV2 outbreak in China.

 

I saw his cv. I don’t accept something from a liberal Ivy professor at face value.


Where does his grant money come from?

 

What lines of inquiry get published and funded?

 

What is his political stripe?

 

He can hypothesize all he wants. Facts are stubborn. States are opening and it appears fewer people are dying from Covid. That doesn’t support his position. 
 

I just checked the 7 day rolling death average for GA, 26 today compared to 39 when we reopened. 
 

But super brain says there are very few states where the infection rate is declining.  Hmm how to square that circle, infection rate increasing according to super brain, but empirical data says fewer people dying, at least in GA, and of course the entire country.
 

 

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47 minutes ago, Captain Bill Burt said:

I saw his cv. I don’t accept something from a liberal Ivy professor at face value.


Where does his grant money come from?

 

What lines of inquiry get published and funded?

 

What is his political stripe?

 

He can hypothesize all he wants. Facts are stubborn. States are opening and it appears fewer people are dying from Covid. That doesn’t support his position. 
 

I just checked the 7 day rolling death average for GA, 26 today compared to 39 when we reopened. 
 

But super brain says there are very few states where the infection rate is declining.  Hmm how to square that circle, infection rate increasing according to super brain, but empirical data says fewer people dying, at least in GA, and of course the entire country.
 

 

Wow!  

I think I should probably apologize for posting the O. P. 

I really thought folks who seem to be trying to put on virus-safe CAS matches might  be interested in what some actual case examples showed, sans all the political spin in the daily media.   Obviously, this isn't the correct audience for that kind of "help".  Nothing is ever simple here on the Wire.  Hopefully a few people out of those 453 who read it found it to be of some use/value. 

 To those who found it offensive,  possibly you can sleep easier by just trying to forget that you read the article.   I'll make an effort not to try to be quite so helpful next time.   Sorry for the imposition.  

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2 hours ago, Palo Verde, SASS # 56522 said:

 

 

Thank you for you highly educated and technical critique of what this guy said.

This guy is lucky to have people like you point out his errors.

 

This guy:

About the author

 

Erin S. Bromage, Ph.D., is an Associate Professor of Biology at the University of Massachusetts Dartmouth. Dr. Bromage graduated from the School of Veterinary and Biomedical Sciences James Cook University, Australia where his research focused on the epidemiology of, and immunity to, infectious disease in animals. His Post-Doctoral training was at the College of William and Mary, Virginia Institute of Marine Science in the Comparative Immunology Laboratory of late Dr. Stephen Kaattari.

 

Dr. Bromage’s research focuses on the evolution of the immune system, the immunological mechanisms responsible for protection from infectious disease, and the design and use of vaccines to control infectious disease in animals. He also focuses on designing diagnostic tools to detect biological and chemical threats in the environment in real-time.

 

Dr. Bromage joined the Faculty of the University of Massachusetts Dartmouth in 2007 where he teaches courses in Immunology and Infectious disease, including a course this semester on the Ecology of Infectious Disease which focused on the emerging SARS-CoV2 outbreak in China.

 

Thank you for digging up the CV info and posting.  I guess the author is a guy after all, and a pretty well educated one at that. 

Thx again, PV. 

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49 minutes ago, Captain Bill Burt said:

fewer people dying, at least in GA, and of course the entire country.

Daily death rates in almost all California counties continued to increase up until the first phase of reopening.  Gov. Nuisance has not yet really opened up very many businesses.  But we won't know the Post-reopener death numbers for a couple weeks yet, post-incubation. 

It could be very good or very bad.  Nobody knows as yet.  

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8 hours ago, Dusty Devil Dale said:

Wow!  

I think I should probably apologize for posting the O. P. 

I really thought folks who seem to be trying to put on virus-safe CAS matches might  be interested in what some actual case examples showed, sans all the political spin in the daily media.   Obviously, this isn't the correct audience for that kind of "help".  Nothing is ever simple here on the Wire.  Hopefully a few people out of those 453 who read it found it to be of some use/value. 

 To those who found it offensive,  possibly you can sleep easier by just trying to forget that you read the article.   I'll make an effort not to try to be quite so helpful next time.   Sorry for the imposition.  

I didn’t find it offensive and I certainly don’t object to you posting it.
 

Unfortunately I don’t think you can avoid spin when it comes to Covid. It’s become just like global warming, everyone has an agenda and that agenda drives conclusions more than science does.

 

Ivy league degrees make me less likely to accept what is being said at face value as Ivy schools are overwhelmingly liberal. 
 

Just because I think this guy is probably full of crap doesn’t reflect on you or your post. If you think he’s a trustworthy source of information I have no problem with that, I just think some of the things he said are deliberately crafted to serve an agenda. 
 

Kind of like the media focusing on total deaths then claiming the US is doing a horrible job rather than talking about deaths per capita which shows us doing better than all but a few countries.

 

Sometimes the metric they choose to discuss reveals their agenda.

 

@Palo Verde I’m not sure why you felt the need for a snarky attack on me, but so be it. I won’t forget.

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9 hours ago, Captain Bill Burt said:

I saw his cv. I don’t accept something from a liberal Ivy professor at face value.


Where does his grant money come from?

 

What lines of inquiry get published and funded?

 

What is his political stripe?

 

He can hypothesize all he wants. Facts are stubborn. States are opening and it appears fewer people are dying from Covid. That doesn’t support his position. 
 

I just checked the 7 day rolling death average for GA, 26 today compared to 39 when we reopened. 
 

But super brain says there are very few states where the infection rate is declining.  Hmm how to square that circle, infection rate increasing according to super brain, but empirical data says fewer people dying, at least in GA, and of course the entire country.
 

 

His position was published about two weeks ago. The lockdown killed the common cold and flu season, stopped in in its tracks over the course of a few days.

 

On opening up, first cases need to spread. This starts an incubation period. Then symptoms appear. Most people don't go running to the doctor for every little cough. For CoViD, add at least one more week and even two for symptoms to get bad enough to prompt a call for medical assistance.

 

Any doctor can tell you opening up will kill people. Any economist can tell you our economy will completely collapse if we stay locked down until everyone is vaccinated.

 

Our two week lockdown has turned into two months. Many small businesses have already failed, many did so in the first month. A one-month shutdown for many businesses costs 10 years of profits, wipes out all operating capital,  and makes it cheaper to close than to fight it out in a recovery.

 

There are no good answers, but I certainly would rather have decision making starting at the individual, then local, and moving up to state and federal level than to have a top-down edict from a level which can not possible understand all the considerations the constituents have individually.

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58 minutes ago, John Kloehr said:

His position was published about two weeks ago. The lockdown killed the common cold and flu season, stopped in in its tracks over the course of a few days.

 

On opening up, first cases need to spread. This starts an incubation period. Then symptoms appear. Most people don't go running to the doctor for every little cough. For CoViD, add at least one more week and even two for symptoms to get bad enough to prompt a call for medical assistance.

 

Any doctor can tell you opening up will kill people. Any economist can tell you our economy will completely collapse if we stay locked down until everyone is vaccinated.

 

Our two week lockdown has turned into two months. Many small businesses have already failed, many did so in the first month. A one-month shutdown for many businesses costs 10 years of profits, wipes out all operating capital,  and makes it cheaper to close than to fight it out in a recovery.

 

There are no good answers, but I certainly would rather have decision making starting at the individual, then local, and moving up to state and federal level than to have a top-down edict from a level which can not possible understand all the considerations the constituents have individually.

Respectfully, that's not true.  Not every doctor agrees with that statement.  The underlying assumption is that the lockdown was effective and coming out of it will cause more deaths. 

 

There's no proof of that though.  Not one iota of proof that the lockdown has done anything positive.  There is plenty of speculation/models, but nothing empirical.  In order to 'prove' the lockdown helped you would need data for what happens with a lockdown, and data for what happens without one and all other variables held constant.  Unfortunately we don't have that.  What we do have are states that went into lockdown and states that didn't, or only for a short period of time.  We can compare those outcomes, though it's not a perfect comparison.

 

The evidence suggests that the lockdown didn't help at all.  Compare Florida to NY .  Florida was pilloried for opening the beaches.  Memes went around about Florida morons.  Total Florida Covid deaths to date: 2,052.  Of course Floria went to great lengths to protect nursing homes.  Florida population 21.5 million with lots of elderly people.

 

New York on the other hand eventually went into lockdown, but required nursing homes to admit Covid positive patients.  Total NY deaths to date: 15,789.  NY population 19.5 million with a younger demographic than Florida.

 

But maybe that's a fluke, lets look at California and Texas.  Texas, no lockdown, mortality rate - .0038%. California, total lockdown, mortality rate - .0071%. Almost twice the mortality rate of Texas.

 

Protecting nursing homes and at risk patients seems to work quite well, lockdowns not so much. 

 

I understand the incubation period.  Here in Georgia we came out of lockdown 26 days ago, April 24th.  There were plenty of academics and models that predicted disaster. 

 

If Ivy league degrees mean a lot, the Harvard/MIT model predicted close to 5,000 deaths by now if we (GA) came out of lockdown and about 1,800 if we stayed in lockdown.   The count as of yesterday was 1,675.  

 

There are way to many variables right now for anyone to really know or predict what will happen next.  I view pretty much anyone who is making predictions with any certainty as either a fool or a liar.

 

I think that the best use of those Ivy degrees is as toilet paper, which there's currently a shortage of.

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14 minutes ago, Captain Bill Burt said:

... The underlying assumption is that the lockdown was effective and coming out of it will cause more deaths. 

 

There's no proof of that though.  Not one iota of proof that the lockdown has done anything positive.  ...

I have to go do some things, but I will get back to you on this. Some of the information is actually quite startling. The benefit may not be worth the cost, but the cold and flu are virtually gone from the country. And I do have empirical data to prove it.

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4 minutes ago, John Kloehr said:

I have to go do some things, but I will get back to you on this. Some of the information is actually quite startling. The benefit may not be worth the cost, but the cold and flu are virtually gone from the country. And I do have empirical data to prove it.

I believe you.  I've read articles that say the same thing about the decline in cases of the common cold and the flu.

 

BTW, I don't present myself as an expert, or even someone who knows a lot about it.  I'm just someone with a more than healthy dose of skepticism who likes to inform himself then make his own conclusions.   The view from your saddle may differ and that's fine. 

 

Speaking only for myself I believe the likelihood is that the vast majority of us will contract Covid at some point, shutdown or not.  I choose to spend my efforts on some minimal moves to avoid contagion (wash hands and avoid large groups in closed spaces) and some big moves to put myself in a position where I don't have a lot of co-morbidities for the virus to exploit.  So, two games of basketball a day to drop weight and get my cardiovascular health right.  Light calisthenics to build some muscle.  Plenty of sleep.  Plenty of sunshine on my skin every day for vitamin D.  A multivitamin supplemented with extra C and extra Zinc.

 

I've been doing that stuff since the 1st of February as a direct response to Covid.  I'm down 12 pounds to about 178 at 6 feet tall, my BP is running in the 120s over 70s, pulse rate 70-80s.  Best shape I've been in for at least 15 years.

 

I think those steps will do a lot more to protect me (from dying, not from catching it) than staying in my house will.

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The funny thing is so many people still trust our media.....lol. That's what sickness me because when you have to rely on them you have proven liars giving you their version of doctored facts.  Whether it's about Russia collusion, Benghazi, The FBI, The IRS the facts get twisted by the media and they favor the left every time. Then you have this Covid-19 and it's so hard to find the true facts and numbers it will take years to figure anything out and that too is on purpose. By the time the truth does leak out the next scandal will dominate the airwaves of disinformation to divide us as Americans and the Covid-19 numbers will be lost in the mix. 

 

How many "mistakes" will they have to apologize for at 3am or in small print on page 7 of their paper for people to realize these aren't mistakes? 

 

These reporters have no soul and are the biggest problem we face as a nation. 

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9 minutes ago, Captain Bill Burt said:

Speaking only for myself I believe the likelihood is that the vast majority of us will contract Covid at some point, shutdown or not. 

Let's hope that is not correct.  The COVID virus symptoms and etiology are much worse than the flu or common cold.  I don't relish an image of myself lying sedated on a bed hooked up to a respirator, with tubes hanging out of me running gunk from my lungs into a bucket.   And I know pretty much for sure that if I never leave my ranch, and don't have any guests inside the gate, I will never be exposed, except via the wind.  Somewhere in between lies what works for me and the safety of my family, which I take as my most serious responsibility.  

 

Being in good shape is certainly one of the few things we can say is ALWAYS the right thing to do.  But it, alone, isn't a shield against an infective virus.  The virus is looking at the cellular level for places to attach itself.  Those attachment opportunities aren't reduced by having a stronger vascular system.  They are reduced by avoiding close personal contacts, according to the article in the OP. 

 

Diabetes, Heart Disease, CHF, older age, obesity are all factors that make it easier for the virus to kill people, once infected, but the virus has killed many who did not have those predisposing conditions. 

You will probably fare better for having good cardiac and other health, but the virus is killing, not just infecting, low numbers of active military people who are maintained in very good physical condition.  So it is a good plan, but it isn't 100% protection.  

 

The bottom line is that if we maintain good general health, properly manage what adverse  health conditions we do have, and practice the kinds of personal safety noted in the OP article, it will produce our best chances of surviving the pandemic and not unknowingly spreading it to others whom we know or do not know.  

As for me, I'm keeping my gates locked for the next month or so, until we know what "re-opening" really brings.  

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3 minutes ago, Dusty Devil Dale said:

Let's hope that is not correct.  The COVID virus symptoms and etiology are much worse than the flu or common cold.  I don't relish an image of myself lying sedated on a bed hooked up to a respirator, with tubes hanging out of me running gunk from my lungs into a bucket.   And I know pretty much for sure that if I never leave my ranch, and don't have any guests inside the gate, I will never be exposed, except via the wind.  Somewhere in between lies what works for me and the safety of my family, which I take as my most serious responsibility.  

 

Being in good shape is certainly one of the few things we can say is ALWAYS the right thing to do.  But it, alone, isn't a shield against an infective virus.  The virus is looking at the cellular level for places to attach itself.  Those attachment opportunities aren't reduced by having a stronger vascular system.  They are reduced by avoiding close personal contacts, according to the article in the OP. 

 

Diabetes, Heart Disease, CHF, older age, obesity are all factors that make it easier for the virus to kill people, once infected, but the virus has killed many who did not have those predisposing conditions. 

You will probably fare better for having good cardiac and other health, but the virus is killing, not just infecting, low numbers of active military people who are maintained in very good physical condition.  So it is a good plan, but it isn't 100% protection.  

 

The bottom line is that if we maintain good general health, properly manage what adverse  health conditions we do have, and practice the kinds of personal safety noted in the OP article, it will produce our best chances of surviving the pandemic and not unknowingly spreading it to others whom we know or do not know.  

As for me, I'm keeping my gates locked for the next month or so, until we know what "re-opening" really brings.  

So if they tell you that it’ll be 18 more months or so before you’ll be safe from covid are you going to remain locked away from society? If they keep these lockdowns and other measures in place much longer our society won’t be much different than Venezuela.

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4 minutes ago, Dusty Devil Dale said:

Let's hope that is not correct.  The COVID virus symptoms and etiology are much worse than the flu or common cold.  I don't relish an image of myself lying sedated on a bed hooked up to a respirator, with tubes hanging out of me running gunk from my lungs into a bucket.   And I know pretty much for sure that if I never leave my ranch, and don't have any guests inside the gate, I will never be exposed, except via the wind.  Somewhere in between lies what works for me and the safety of my family, which I take as my most serious responsibility.  

 

Being in good shape is certainly one of the few things we can say is ALWAYS the right thing to do.  But it, alone, isn't a shield against an infective virus.  The virus is looking at the cellular level for places to attach itself.  Those attachment opportunities aren't reduced by having a stronger vascular system.  They are reduced by avoiding close personal contacts, according to the article in the OP. 

 

Diabetes, Heart Disease, CHF, older age, obesity are all factors that make it easier for the virus to kill people, once infected, but the virus has killed many who did not have those predisposing conditions. 

You will probably fare better for having good cardiac and other health, but the virus is killing, not just infecting, low numbers of active military people who are maintained in very good physical condition.  So it is a good plan, but it isn't 100% protection.  

 

The bottom line is that if we maintain good general health, properly manage what adverse  health conditions we do have, and practice the kinds of personal safety noted in the OP article, it will produce our best chances of surviving the pandemic and not unknowingly spreading it to others whom we know or do not know.  

As for me, I'm keeping my gates locked for the next month or so, until we know what "re-opening" really brings.  

I hope I'm wrong.

 

Be aware, there are 'experts' who think the virus definitely does attack the vascular system. 

 

A belief is that Covid attacks at a cellular level through tissues that contain ACE2 cells which it binds to, penetrates, and turns into little Covid factories. Those cells are prevalent in the heart, brain, lungs, kidneys, blood vessels, adipose tissue and so forth.  That is believed to be the reason why people with high blood pressure, obesity, heart issues, etc. are particularly vulnerable to the disease.  It's believed that may also explain why people with type O blood tend to have better outcomes, fewer ACE2 cells.  As I stated, trying to improve your health won't do anything to prevent contracting the disease, but it certainly could help in fighting it off.

 

Again, I'm no expert, but the articles I've read strongly indicate that, losing weight, strengthening your cardiovascular system, and taking steps to improve your immune response (vitamin D, Zinc and Vitamin C among others) can all be very beneficial in terms of outcomes from Covid.  Having said all that, if you're predisposed to the disease and pick up a big viral load, none of that may make a difference.


If you're really worried Triple D I suggest you supplement with Zinc every day.   Buy some Zinc lozenges and if you start feeling ill start taking them too.  Zinc has been proven to help with the common cold, which is a corona virus.  BTW, the older you are, the more likely you are Zinc deficient, starting at about 50.  Some studies are showing that Chloroquine without Zinc isn't effective, and it's an established fact that Chloroquine helps transport Zinc into the cells.

 

Starting to see a pattern......?

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The way information about the virus has been politicized and been used as a way to manipulate, classify, and divide, ANY information from ANY expert is likely to immediately be denounced by someone with a different agenda.

 

Moses could come down from the mountain with everything we need to know about the virus carved in two stone tablets, and right off there'd be a bunch of folks sayin' it bogus because he was known to have collaborated with the Egyptians.

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2 minutes ago, Ozark Huckleberry said:

The way information about the virus has been politicized and been used as a way to manipulate, classify, and divide, ANY information from ANY expert is likely to immediately be denounced by someone with a different agenda.

 

Moses could come down from the mountain with everything we need to know about the virus carved in two stone tablets, and right off there'd be a bunch of folks sayin' it bogus because he was known to have collaborated with the Egyptians.

I totally agree!  I think the opposition to Chloroquine as a treatment is almost completely due to the fact that Trump promoted it as a potential cure and the media and liberals (but I repeat myself) can't stand to admit he might have been right.

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