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California Doctors Break it down....


JD Lud

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This was forwarded as a response from one of my fraternity brothers, now a prominent pediatrician in Columbus, Ohio, referencing the above:

 

Quote

(per my friend) This video has been making the rounds. These doctors are businessmen whose commentary literally made me cringe from start to finish.

A response to their presentation from Dr Andrew Martin is spot on:

 

“Too many people are posting this video for me to keep responding individually. I don’t know these doctors and can’t say definitively what their motivations are, but I can tell you almost everything they say here is wrong. I, like them, am an emergency medicine physician. Unlike them, however, I don’t claim this makes me an expert in epidemiology, infectious disease, and public health. The knowledge I do have is enough to identify almost everything they say as a false or misleading use of numbers. They are being excoriated by other physicians nationwide for this video. They own a chain of urgent cares and urgent cares nationwide are losing money right now, so they would have motivation to try to get their customers back. I only made it through about 30 minutes of their press conference, and the following is a non-comprehensive list of how they’re trying to mislead you:

 

1. They keep saying COVID-19 has a similar death rate to the flu by comparing the total deaths so far to an average YEAR for the flu. As they said, the flu kills about 40k per year in the US. COVID really just started ramping up about a month ago, so you can’t compare it to a whole year of flu. It has killed 40k people in the past 17 days. So it’s killed as many people in 17 days as the flu kills in 365 on average. 

 

2. They also said it’s no worse than the swine flu was. The swine flu killed 12,000 for the whole year from 2009-2010. COVID has killed that many people in the last 6 days.

 

3. They’re completely irresponsible with statistics. They keep saying the percent of positive tests can be extrapolated to determine the percent of the entire population that has COVID. That completely ignores the fact that the people getting tested have symptoms compatible with COVID, which is why they’re getting tested. You can’t apply that sample to the entire population of people who have no symptoms of COVID. They then cite mortality rates for the entire population (not the mortality rate for people who actually have COVID), and compare it to the mortality rate for people who actually have the flu, which is not even remotely the same thing and a completely irresponsible comparison.

 

4. When comparing Sweden and Norway, they literally said that the difference between 1700 and 180 deaths is statistically insignificant. Sweden, which is not locked down, has 10 times as many deaths as their immediate neighbor which is locked down. A ten-fold greater death toll is extremely statistically significant.

 

5. They’re completely wrong about temporary quarantine being bad for the immune system, and provide no evidence for this.

 

6. They basically said they’re more qualified than all the international experts in infectious disease and epidemiology because they see patients in an urgent care, and they have data from their one small chain of urgent cares (which they completely misinterpret). 

 

6. They say without any proof that doctors are being pressured to list COVID as a cause of death. As someone who personally fills out death certificates, and frequents emergency medicine forums where this questions has been asked, neither I nor anyone else I’ve heard from seem to have ever been pressured to do this.

 

I don’t dispute the claim that people seem to be staying home when they should be going to the doctor. There is actual evidence that people are dying at home more often. They can make an argument for people to come back, however, without spreading so much false information.”

 

— Andrew Martin, MD

 

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I noticed that extrapolation portion...since only the worst get tested its not apples to apples to the entire population, however the extended testing and studies done actually show higher rates so I think its a wash and in the end infected rates will be much higher than extrapolated data (based solely on my opinion).   To me their reasoning is twofold...ease the scare the media has put into people by sharing their experience and help to get some business moving (which would benefit them)

 

Main points that I agree with are we made a best estimation early on, and we (government)have refused to analyze data since then and adjust our methods accordingly.  Empty hospitals are all around, only thing they are running out of is patients.....

 

I 100% believe from personal experience data is being changed to Covid-19.  A friend had a 4 wheeler accident last week, thought they had a concussion so call ask-a nurse type line.  They were asked if they had fever or chills...he called in from outdoors where he was riding...said no fever but it is starting to get a bit cool out here and I'm shivering a bit....they marked him "cover-19" and told him such.  He tried to argue that it was just a response to the cold and he didn't mean to say he had actual chills but it didn't matter to them.

 

I found somewhere if patients are on medicare they get around 19k for each positive case, and around 40k if the patients used a ventilator.  That to me alone is pretty good incentive for hospital administration to pressure people.  People that dont want to be shown to be wrong will go to any lengths sometimes to cover up so they dont look incompetent as well.

 

Everyone has an angle....Governments are going to have to start adjusting as people are not at the same place some governors are.  They can either relax restrictions while maintaining some control, or extend and lose all control.  Parks that are "closed" are overfull as I took the family to the beach yesterday staying away from people.  The same government that says its too dangerous for private construction companies has union groups working on public projects at work.  The same government that says its too dangerous to go get medical procedures done is busy allowing abortions or what they want.  The same government that says its too dangerous to landscape for private companies has all its grounds being taken care of.  The same government that says companies need to stay at home decided it was ok for 25,000 Boeing employees to go back to work before anyone else.  The same government that says I can't fish says people can buy weed, alcohol, lotto etc....Governors have ZERO credibility when they are playing political favorites....if they were consistent people would believe them.....they are not so its obvious what they are trying to do at this point.

 

To top it off, think of all the essential workers out there.  With half our workforce still employed, we have STILL flattened and lowered the curve.  If it was as bad as they said it was, mitigation efforts would not have been enough.  We have proved that grocery stores, gas stations, retailers with food, Home Depot, Lowes, UPS, post office, amazon etc...all these people can go to work and we as a society continue to see less and less cases.  Doesn't it make sense that we can employ the same precautions they are doing and move the country forward?

 

I get it, its serious for a very very small group of people.  I fully understand their need to isolate and protect themselves, and I fully support them doing so.  What I dont support is having the rights of 99.5% trampled on needlessly when we could be getting back to work and protecting the vulnerable at the same time.  We are given a false choice by the government that we have to do one or the other....thats crap.  

 

Rant over...too many sheep out here.  This scares the hell out of me for when something really bad happens.....people that sit and believe the government is answer.

 

 

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23 minutes ago, JD Lud said:

To top it off, think of all the essential workers out there.  With half our workforce still employed, we have STILL flattened and lowered the curve.

 

I just checked with my contact within the factory where I worked.  They now have a nurse checking temperature of people coming to work each shift. 800+/- employees.  Not one case yet.  These people come from a large area of central Missouri and go home to their families and neighborhoods.  

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Thing to remember about statistics.  Statistics can be skewed to support any argument.  Lots of folks have an Axe to grind.  Those who wish to stay alive will present differently than those whom wish to "open up" contrary to competent medical recommendation.  This obviously includes some central government leadership.

 

JD LUD  If your going to participate on our forums, don't you think it about time you joined SASS, and displayed a SASS Number??

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By gosh you're right Colorado.  I joined almost 2 years ago I think when in Iowa and no groups close.  Moved out here and have travelled a lot more for work and with kids busy with sports/events when I am home I barely shoot, but there is a group I found only about 45 minutes away from me now.  

 

Anyways, I have been taking advantage of your hospitality....seems I became attached to personalities (like Pat, Alpo, Joe, and OLG and others) here while initially searching for firearms advice.  Forgive me for overstepping, and ill refrain from any further discussions until whenever circumstances allow shooting to re-enter my life!

 

Thanks and take care!  

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Both sides have valid points actually.

 

 

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7 minutes ago, JD Lud said:

By gosh you're right Colorado.  I joined almost 2 years ago I think when in Iowa and no groups close.  Moved out here and have travelled a lot more for work and with kids busy with sports/events when I am home I barely shoot, but there is a group I found only about 45 minutes away from me now.  

 

Anyways, I have been taking advantage of your hospitality....seems I became attached to personalities (like Pat, Alpo, Joe, and OLG and others) here while initially searching for firearms advice.  Forgive me for overstepping, and ill refrain from any further discussions until whenever circumstances allow shooting to re-enter my life!

 

Thanks and take care!  

Doesn’t matter to me if you’re a SASS member or not. If it was a requirement, obviously SASS would specify that. But it was decided long ago that participation on the wire was a valuable way to gain members. I’m okay with that.
The moderators usually get rid of trolls and scammers pretty quick.

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8 minutes ago, JD Lud said:

By gosh you're right Colorado.  I joined almost 2 years ago I think when in Iowa and no groups close.  Moved out here and have travelled a lot more for work and with kids busy with sports/events when I am home I barely shoot, but there is a group I found only about 45 minutes away from me now.  

 

Anyways, I have been taking advantage of your hospitality....seems I became attached to personalities (like Pat, Alpo, Joe, and OLG and others) here while initially searching for firearms advice.  Forgive me for overstepping, and ill refrain from any further discussions until whenever circumstances allow shooting to re-enter my life!

 

Thanks and take care!  

 

I may not agree with your posts on this thread, but I will be the last to suggest you refrain from further discussion and conversation on the forum! I ran into a bit of that early on with a couple of members saying I shouldn't have an opinion because I was a "guest," and then after I became a member, because I wasn't an "active shooter." Each time others came to my defense, saying there was no such requirement.

Now, I don't mean to put words in his mouth, but I don't think Colorado was suggesting you not speak up or take part, just that since you're here, why not make the next step!

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Many of us ('specially the more "seasoned" of our number) have a variety of health issues.  And to varying degrees, we live with these issues.

 

With that in mind, I heartily reject the argument that "Ol' so-and-so had this-or-that and would've died sooner or later anyway," with the following qualifier:

 

Whether or not they have "pre-existing conditions," would that person who has passed still be alive today if he or she had NOT contracted the virus?  If the answer is "Yes," then the virus killed 'em.  

 

Anyway, this will pass.  Might be like a giant kidney stone, but it WILL pass.  

 

 

 

 

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28 minutes ago, JD Lud said:

By gosh you're right Colorado.  I joined almost 2 years ago I think when in Iowa and no groups close.  Moved out here and have travelled a lot more for work and with kids busy with sports/events when I am home I barely shoot, but there is a group I found only about 45 minutes away from me now.  

 

Anyways, I have been taking advantage of your hospitality....seems I became attached to personalities (like Pat, Alpo, Joe, and OLG and others) here while initially searching for firearms advice.  Forgive me for overstepping, and ill refrain from any further discussions until whenever circumstances allow shooting to re-enter my life!

 

Thanks and take care!  


There is NO requirement to be a SASS member for being on the Wire (which includes all forums). If you joined SASS you can PM a Moderator and ask them to modify your info or you can add info to your profile under your avatar if you like or you can leave it alone. Your call. 
 

Also, as long as you follow the SASS Wire rules and guidelines you are definitely welcome here...unless something has changed since I was a Mod for a few months a while ago. 

 

Please don’t stop using the Wire. You are welcome here. 

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The video has been taken down by YouTube for violating terms of service.  ( I don’t know when, exactly.  I checked at 2:30AM on TUE-28-APR-2020 and it was gone then.)

 

 

Cat Brules

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15 hours ago, JD Lud said:

By gosh you're right Colorado.  I joined almost 2 years ago I think when in Iowa and no groups close.  Moved out here and have travelled a lot more for work and with kids busy with sports/events when I am home I barely shoot, but there is a group I found only about 45 minutes away from me now.  

 

Anyways, I have been taking advantage of your hospitality....seems I became attached to personalities (like Pat, Alpo, Joe, and OLG and others) here while initially searching for firearms advice.  Forgive me for overstepping, and ill refrain from any further discussions until whenever circumstances allow shooting to re-enter my life!

 

Thanks and take care!  

As was said before, there's no requirement to be a SASS member. They allow guests in hopes that you will join someday! Keep posting, it doesn't bother me at all!! Happy Trails!;)

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YouTube has removed the video!

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He__, I am an El Rey. "Pre existing conditions" is my middle name!  :D Every time I get on the Internet, I see messages that I am "at high risk!" BFD!!!   :wub:

 

Would my life be better bunkered down in my home wearing a mask with my windows and doors closed? Life is a series of scenarii wherein you evaluate the situation, peruse the risk statistics, properly prepare and get your ass out into the world.

 

I want to do some shooting!!!. I have loaded so much BP that I could be killed by being buried in tons of lead and.or being propelled to Mars by a spark!  :(

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6 hours ago, Mud Marine,SASS#54686 Life said:

 being propelled to Mars by a spark!  :(

The acceleration would be a bitch 

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