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Captain Bill Burt

First Match after Covid

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8 hours ago, T-Square said:

I'm ready to start matches TODAY !

This is all a Deep State rouse to control the population, feed it a dose of socialism, and steal it's liberty.

the World Puppet masters released this virus from a lab to overthrow the most successful President and the strongest economy the world has ever seen.

the Big corporations get Billions, yet Corporations like Nike and Dick's refuse to pay their bills, their rent, and they layoff 200,000 people - failure to pay will seize the economy, and cause a revolution !

the average small business PPP nets each business less than $60,000, but 4,412 business get $5m or more !?!?

Now the Governmet wants access to your phone for "contact tracing"

i will not give up my liberty without a fight.

what time is the match tomorrow ?

Now you're talking T!

58 minutes ago, Cowboy Junky said:

We snuck the March match in and April is at the EOM for us so I hoping we don't have to miss any.......but the gun club hasn't said exactly when it might re-open. If they don't open I have alternative plans on how I can hold the match. But my fingers are crossed that elected officials that are overstepping their boundaries will start the right choices. 

 

This thread probably won't  last long so I'll sneak this in as well. The reason they closed things down was so the hospitals didn't get overran all at once. Thinking you can hide and that will somehow saves lives is not realistic. The Spanish Flu was around for 3 years so are you willing to hide for 2.5 more years if that happens? Also if you are waiting for  vaccine the AIDS virus came out in 1981 and there is no vaccine as of today......so again how long are you willing to hide? 

 

If you got it before they knew what it was, if you got it last month, if you get it next month or you get it next year after it comes around again the results are the same........nobody is "killing" anyone else. There is being cavalier and there is being realistic and looking at real numbers and states that didn't do anything until last vs states that much more much earlier and comparing real data rather than finger pointing, fear tactics and parroting left wing media narratives. The best thing you can do that is in your power is try to get healthy not hide for the rest of your life IMO. Dang should I really hit save.........lol Aw what the heck. 

You're getting my hopes up Junky!  I'll be watching your website to see if you have a match next Sunday.  If you do Sharyn and I will definitely be there. 

 

I hope this thread isn't locked.  The topic certainly isn't meant to be offensive.  I will ask that the negative nannies take their health warnings elsewhere.  The topic is when can we get back together and shoot some steel.  If your topic is how dangerous it would be to do that, please start your own thread.  I'm looking right at you Dale, go play in your own sandbox and take your know it all crap with you.

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6 minutes ago, Captain Bill Burt said:

Now you're talking T!

You're getting my hopes up Junky!  I'll be watching your website to see if you have a match next Sunday.  If you do Sharyn and I will definitely be there. 

 

I hope this thread isn't locked.  The topic certainly isn't meant to be offensive.  I will ask that the negative nannies take their health warnings elsewhere.  The topic is when can we get back together and shoot some steel.  If your topic is how dangerous it would be to do that, please start your own thread.  I'm looking right at you Dale, go play in your own sandbox and take your know it all crap with you.

Agreed. To me it isn’t all about shooting as it means simply to let individual choice be allowed. If you fear the virus , then stay on your self imposed quarantine. I can’t spread the virus to you if you don’t allow the contact. 

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17 hours ago, StirrupTrouble said:

Our park is completely shut down at least through 6/30. We are a bit of a hotspot right now

Yes, you are a bit of a hot spot at the moment.  The total population infection rate for Hall county is double that of the US average.  That said, you might be near peaking for the Spring based on some of the trends in the numbers. 

 

Here’s the analytics my team built to provide numbers to our clients and the public.

https://covid19.huronconsultinggroup.com/views/COVID-19Impact/COVID-19ImpactbyCounty?%3Aiid=2&%3AisGuestRedirectFromVizportal=y&%3Aembed=y&%3Amobile=true

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2 hours ago, Ozark Shark said:

Yes, you are a bit of a hot spot at the moment.  The total population infection rate for Hall county is double that of the US average.  That said, you might be near peaking for the Spring based on some of the trends in the numbers. 

 

Here’s the analytics my team built to provide numbers to our clients and the public.

https://covid19.huronconsultinggroup.com/views/COVID-19Impact/COVID-19ImpactbyCounty?%3Aiid=2&%3AisGuestRedirectFromVizportal=y&%3Aembed=y&%3Amobile=true

Very cool tool. They are hoping we peak in ten days or so. Larger Nebraska cities are slowing, but we are surging right now. Another 65 yesterday according to health Dept, so up to 425

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Here do I turn in my score from this mornings match ?! Six stages, all sub 20 sec, clean...and will black powder, from my ROAs - Liberty is on the top, and Justice is her companion.

Resized_20200215_144423.jpeg

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4 minutes ago, StirrupTrouble said:

Very cool tool. They are hoping we peak in ten days or so. Larger Nebraska cities are slowing, but we are surging right now. Another 65 yesterday according to health Dept, so up to 425

So, what is the likelihood of you holding your state match in July?

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Just now, Edward R S Canby, SASS#59971 said:

So, what is the likelihood of you holding your state match in July?

I am still hoping to, and planning as if we are, but right now I would say 50-50. Depends a lot on when we peak...this sucks!

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4 hours ago, Captain Bill Burt said:

Now you're talking T!

You're getting my hopes up Junky!  I'll be watching your website to see if you have a match next Sunday.  If you do Sharyn and I will definitely be there. 

 

I hope this thread isn't locked.  The topic certainly isn't meant to be offensive.  I will ask that the negative nannies take their health warnings elsewhere.  The topic is when can we get back together and shoot some steel.  If your topic is how dangerous it would be to do that, please start your own thread.  I'm looking right at you Dale, go play in your own sandbox and take your know it all crap with you.

Hey, enjoy.  And best of luck to you.  

(and thanks for avoiding rudeness and keeping things impersonal, per the Moderator Guidelines). 

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3 hours ago, Ozark Shark said:

Yes, you are a bit of a hot spot at the moment.  The total population infection rate for Hall county is double that of the US average.  That said, you might be near peaking for the Spring based on some of the trends in the numbers. 

 

Here’s the analytics my team built to provide numbers to our clients and the public.

https://covid19.huronconsultinggroup.com/views/COVID-19Impact/COVID-19ImpactbyCounty?%3Aiid=2&%3AisGuestRedirectFromVizportal=y&%3Aembed=y&%3Amobile=true

Keep in mind the infection numbers being reported are hugely affected by the amount of testing being done, which never seems to be included in the media blasts.  Counties that are doing a lot of testing have more cases to report.  One of our local CA counties has done no testing at all, and guess what their infection rates show.  But that doesn't mean they have better local healthcare or that everyone ought to move there.  The case numbers alone are pretty misleading.  

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1 hour ago, T-Square said:

Here do I turn in my score from this mornings match ?! Six stages, all sub 20 sec, clean...and will black powder, from my ROAs - Liberty is on the top, and Justice is her companion.

Resized_20200215_144423.jpeg

I think you're first in your category T.  Unfortunately for you, all my stages were sub 15 seconds and clean, so I guess I got you on this match. 

 

I love those old armies.  You going to let me handle them at our next match?

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I had to drive by my local Lowes store yesterday, didn't need to go there but my route took me by there. There were no parking spots open. It was more crammed than on Black Friday. Wal Marts crowded also. Most of our sport monthly matches range from 10 to 20 shooters I would guess. Most ranges already practice social distancing for safety reasons. I would feel safer in an outdoor setting doing an outdoor activity than I would going to a commercial business. 

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Georgia isn't on the Phase 1 list, so that worries me for May.  I have a feeling we won't be open for shooting the first couple of weeks. 

 

Alabama, on the other hand, is on the list, and it sounds like they may be open for business.  That means the first Saturday and first Sunday of May are possibilities at the North

Alabama Regulators and the Russell County Regulators.  If any of the regulators are on the Wire please chip in if you have any info on that.

 

South Carolina is on the list, so Junky may be in business in April, but almost certainly by May. 


Tennessee is on the list, so I'm hoping the Ocoee Rangers will be ready to go in May as well.  Rangers please chip in with info.

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1 hour ago, Dusty Devil Dale said:

Keep in mind the infection numbers being reported are hugely affected by the amount of testing being done, which never seems to be included in the media blasts.  Counties that are doing a lot of testing have more cases to report.  One of our local CA counties has done no testing at all, and guess what their infection rates show.  But that doesn't mean they have better local healthcare or that everyone ought to move there.  The case numbers alone are pretty misleading.  

Agreed.  You really have to examine a number of ratios and apply the against historical infection curves for other novel viruses to get a better understanding of the state of any geography at a given time.  Much of the data being collected and reported today is missing some of the key time stamps and other attributes for reliable comparisons against historic norms.  That’s one of the factors driving the revisions in the Washington model.  They haven’t said it, but it’s apparent that they originally applied worst-case scenarios to the model drivers.   There are a lot of us in the analytics world who are trying to clean up this data and find a proper control set to improve the models.

 

This is a long interview, but covers a lot of the data screw ups that have occurred with the current data collection and usage.

 

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I listened to the first few minutes of this video and will definitely listen the rest of it after the lawn is mowed!  :D

 

Hopefully he will comment on the sensitivity and specificity of the tests now available;  how false negatives and false positives can create more uncertainty and influence public health policy.  Remember that the more rare a disease is in a given population, the more likely it is that a positive test result is actually a false positive.  A lot of the Covid tests in use today leave a lot of room for doubt.

 

 I’m eager to finish the video!

 

EDIT:

 

Finished it, worth the time.  Thanks.

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3 hours ago, Mountain Wolf said:

I had to drive by my local Lowes store yesterday, didn't need to go there but my route took me by there. There were no parking spots open. It was more crammed than on Black Friday. Wal Marts crowded also. Most of our sport monthly matches range from 10 to 20 shooters I would guess. Most ranges already practice social distancing for safety reasons. I would feel safer in an outdoor setting doing an outdoor activity than I would going to a commercial business. 

No kidding.  And the stores like Walmart don't seem to be requiring masks or gloves, even of their staff, and they let people ferry through with strings of kids, touching and coughing on everything.  With that going on, the lock-downs are pretty illusory, and the virus problem and "shelter at home" guidelines are likely to last for a long while.  

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@Captain Bill Burt will you be attending Alabama State(June 4-6)? 

 

I'm thinking that may be my first match since February unless I can sneak in at Wartrace's mid-month match in May(assuming they/we have it).

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5 minutes ago, Tyrel Cody said:

@Captain Bill Burt will you be attending Alabama State(June 4-6)? 

 

I'm thinking that may be my first match since February unless I can sneak in at Wartrace's mid-month match in May(assuming they/we have it).

If they have it, I'll be there.

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13 minutes ago, Tyrel Cody said:

@Captain Bill Burt will you be attending Alabama State(June 4-6)? 

 

I'm thinking that may be my first match since February unless I can sneak in at Wartrace's mid-month match in May(assuming they/we have it).

If Wartrace has a May match we may drive up for it.

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Capt.

I'll get on the wire tonight, I will try and join you, in Alabama at least.

 

I assume there are registration papers online, and I will complete and send in. What about hotels? Do you know where you want to stay ?

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4 minutes ago, T-Square said:

Capt.

I'll get on the wire tonight, I will try and join you, in Alabama at least.

 

I assume there are registration papers online, and I will complete and send in. What about hotels? Do you know where you want to stay ?

I stay at the Quality Inn in Scottsboro AL.  It's about 20 minutes to the range, but there aren't any hotels closer.  The QI has reasonable prices and a pretty good free breakfast.  A lot of cowboys stay there.   They do rent out rooms at the range, but I would be willing to bet those are already taken.  If you end up going ask to posse with me, I'll do the same.

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2 minutes ago, T-Square said:

Capt.

I'll get on the wire tonight, I will try and join you, in Alabama at least.

 

I assume there are registration papers online, and I will complete and send in. What about hotels? Do you know where you want to stay ?

 

https://de9df02e-89c4-460f-ae90-5cf1a6d4f70f.filesusr.com/ugd/e76cb2_d59d8f9836714a0691399073f89746b9.pdf

 

I'm booking a room in Scottsboro myself. I thought about Guntersville Lodge, but thats 45 minutes further from home.

 

I'm not going to send in an app just yet, waiting to see if my son's Prom gets rescheduled then. Should know soon.

 

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3 minutes ago, Tyrel Cody said:

 

https://de9df02e-89c4-460f-ae90-5cf1a6d4f70f.filesusr.com/ugd/e76cb2_d59d8f9836714a0691399073f89746b9.pdf

 

I'm booking a room in Scottsboro myself. I thought about Guntersville Lodge, but thats 45 minutes further from home.

 

I'm not going to send in an app just yet, waiting to see if my son's Prom gets rescheduled then. Should know soon.

 

I really hope we will all get to get together at Alabama State and shake off the gloom of this whole Covid mess.   That would be a great way to start the summer. 

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Any son of a bitch tries to shake my hand, I'm not only gonna cough on him, I'm gonna cough on his wife...on his friends, burn his face masks and take his toilet paper away. Nobody better shake hands. You better bury Ned right, you better not cut up inferior fabric to make face masks.....or I'll come back and give everyone of you son of a bitches the China virus.

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7 minutes ago, Cypress Sun said:

Any son of a bitch tries to shake my hand, I'm not only gonna cough on him, I'm gonna cough on his wife...on his friends, burn his face masks and take his toilet paper away. Nobody better shake hands. You better bury Ned right, you better not cut up inferior fabric to make face masks.....or I'll come back and give everyone of you son of a bitches the China virus.

Then you will not be forgiven 

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I'm ready to start shooting again now. I'd rather risk it than holding off another month or longer. I'm with Doc Pain above. The virus is gonna run its course either way, & I'm ready to get back to normal, with cowboy shooting at the very top of my list. I am blessed to have a decent practice stage in my backyard, with a mountain as a berm, but it's just not the same without the competition.

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1 hour ago, Max Payne said:

I'm ready to start shooting again now. I'd rather risk it than holding off another month or longer. I'm with Doc Pain above. The virus is gonna run its course either way, & I'm ready to get back to normal, with cowboy shooting at the very top of my list. I am blessed to have a decent practice stage in my backyard, with a mountain as a berm, but it's just not the same without the competition.

I'm so there with you on this one pard.  I guess we have to hope for Junky's place next Sunday, or the North Alabama Regulators on the 2nd.  I'll be surprised if River Bend has their match. 

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My guess is maybe summer? It could also be wishful thinking on my part though. None of us are really in the clear until there is working therapeutic treatment or a vaccine. 

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Way back in September 1918, fully half of San Antonio's population of 150,000 people was sick with the Spanish Flu.  San Antonio is home to a lot of military bases, and soldiers returning from Europe brought the flu with them.  A city-wide quarantine was instituted in early October 1918, and then lifted on November 11th when things seemed better.  The ensuing second wave killed twice as many as the first.  Graveyards in just about every small Texas town show that entire multi-generational  families were killed by the Spanish Flu.  COVID-`19 is not the Spanish Flu.  It's worse.

 

SASS is heavily populated with older/elderly "vulnerable-to-COVID-19" people.  Yeah, we all miss our friends, and shooting a wonderful "fantasy" game.  At the moment, we don't have enough reliable information on how this "super bug" is transmitted to figure out how to enjoy our sport.  No matter how smart we think we are about protecting ourselves and our families, we will encounter countless others who are not.  Darwin, and Jeff Foxworthy, were right  "Only the fittest survive."...and "You Can't Fix Stupid."

 

So, plan for the future?  Absolutely!  Rush back out there and (unwittingly) contribute to the problem?  Not...Just...Yet.

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80,000 people died of the flu in the USA last year but we did not shut down life as we know it. The data being giving us is known infected and deaths BUT not figures for the majority of the country that does not have a problem. Even the death figures are wrong. Normal deaths from serious medical problems are also being used for the virus death figures.

The virus is a problem. In heaven populated areas that have a high infection then take strong action. Agree, but in other areas take precautions but use common sense. Use masked, do not make contact, wash hands and keep distance in groups. Are TO stand close to a shooter, put the timer on the table and shooter starts the timer, TO stay behind but not on top of shooter for safety. I am very cautious being a Cattle Baron and not best health but I can not wait to get back to shooting.

 

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cdc says the now ending flu season in the us resulted in 24,000 to 62,000 deaths, with numbers likely to be revised downwards. From CDC “ These estimates may partly reflect increases in testing in recent weeks and may be adjusted downward once the season is complete and final data for the 2019/20 season are available”.   The benefit of flattening the curve provides time to research and develop drugs to treat the virus or the symptoms, as well as develop a vaccine for next year. And the number of actual cases is far more than reported, simply because we have tested very few people.  With peak expected to hit most of US by May 11, there are many more deaths to come - think another 40,000.  So we really will have 80,000 or more people die from this virus.

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26 minutes ago, Mill City Maddog said:

cdc says the now ending flu season in the us resulted in 24,000 to 62,000 deaths, with numbers likely to be revised downwards. From CDC “ These estimates may partly reflect increases in testing in recent weeks and may be adjusted downward once the season is complete and final data for the 2019/20 season are available”.   The benefit of flattening the curve provides time to research and develop drugs to treat the virus or the symptoms, as well as develop a vaccine for next year. And the number of actual cases is far more than reported, simply because we have tested very few people.  With peak expected to hit most of US by May 11, there are many more deaths to come - think another 40,000.  So we really will have 80,000 or more people die from this virus.

Different models are predicting very different numbers.  


The IHME model is predicting about 60,000 deaths by August.  I'm linking it below.  I find it interesting that by the time you get to the second week of May, so just over three weeks away, daily deaths nationwide have declined to about 100.  

 

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

 

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My error, 80,000 was for 2018, 2019 figures not finalized. Point is take precautions but move on.

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On 4/18/2020 at 8:49 AM, T-Square said:

Here do I turn in my score from this mornings match ?! Six stages, all sub 20 sec, clean...and will black powder, from my ROAs - Liberty is on the top, and Justice is her companion.

Resized_20200215_144423.jpeg

How well did you do with the shot gun and rifle?

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20 minutes ago, Navy Davey said:

How well did you do with the shot gun and rifle?

So you've shot with T-Square.

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Governor Kemp has decided to start letting businesses open back up.  Supposedly restaurants can reopen on April 27th if they follow guidelines. Gyms, bowling alleys, salons, etc. will be allowed to reopen at the end of this week.


I'm thinking this means ranges can reopen.  They're less likely to be vectors for transmission than gyms or salons.  Perhaps we can have our first Saturday match in May after all.  Hopefully the second Saturday too!

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