And so it continues

[Utah Bob #35998]

The county just closed 60 parks to vehicle traffic because people just wouldn’t pay attention to the stay away guidelines. Picnics, basketball games, etc. You can still walk into the parks but there’s no park within walking distance from me. 

[Warden Callaway]

Neighbor family with 4 kids in grade school just walked through our property (with permission) to get to creek on our property.  Nice size stream with clean gravel bar. 

 

Son in Minneapolis area says he's going to have the healthiest neighborhood.   Everyone is out walking.   Stop and visit from across the street.   

[Subdeacon Joe]

Break up the crowds, that I can agree with. But let the damned family of 6 or 8 have their picnic as long as there is decent distance between groups. 

Let people IN THEIR CARS park and watch the sunset, don't hit them with $1,000 fines for it as happened in San Diego. 

There needs to be some common sense on both sides.

What worries me is that when the next flu season hits and we see numbers like these:

CDC estimates* that, from October 1, 2019, through March 28, 2020, there have been:
39,000,000 – 55,000,000
flu illnesses

 

18,000,000 – 26,000,000
flu medical visits

 

400,000 – 730,000
flu hospitalizations

 

24,000 – 63,000
flu deaths

is that we will see the same panic, the same, to be blunt, draconian measures. Yes, I know, "It's not like the flu!  We have vaccines for the flu!" Which, I guess, makes the 24,000 to 63,000 deaths from influenza acceptable.   Seems to me that 63,000 deaths is 63,000 deaths.  

 

[Warden Callaway]

Covid-19 good news! They have figured out that putting people on ventilation is killing them! 

 

http://web.archive.org/web/20200405061401/https://medium.com/@agaiziunas/covid-19-had-us-all-fooled-but-now-we-might-have-finally-found-its-secret-91182386efcb

 

The really good news is. They have figured out the "pee" pill cures the worst cases in 12 hours!

 

https://www.theblaze.com/news/la-doctor-hydroxychloroquine-zinc-coronavirus

[Red Gauntlet , SASS 60619]

1 hour ago, Subdeacon Joe said:

 Yes, I know, "It's not like the flu!  We have vaccines for the flu!" Which, I guess, makes the 24,000 to 63,000 deaths from influenza acceptable.   Seems to me that 63,000 deaths is 63,000 deaths.  

 

New York went from 20 deaths just three weeks ago to 4,800 two days ago. It definitely ain't the flu. The NY papers' obits are full of well-known and prominent folks, the ones with best access to care, dead of the virus in this short time.

 

On the West Coast, cases are coming under control well; California especially. The behavioral stuff is working according to every qualified person. We should keep it up.

[Smoken D]

Most everything here in Warsaw and Benton county is closed. Parks, many Fed & State boat ramps. Take out only at the 3 restaurants, others are closed. Limited number of folks into Walmart. Just stay home and do what needs to be done around the house. What really Pis*** locals is so many big city folks coming down to abandon the city. They will just bring Corona with them and infect all the old folks living around here. Nearest hospital is 50 minutes away so many plan on just dying at home.

[Subdeacon Joe]

13 minutes ago, Red Gauntlet , SASS 60619 said:

New York went from 20 deaths just three weeks ago to 4,800 two days ago.

 

Still not 60,000+ .  
So you suggest that next fall, when influenza hits and we see a similar number of total deaths we institute the same lockdown, distancing, masks, etc. that we have now.  Shut down all "non-essential" travel and business.

[Four-Eyed Buck,SASS #14795]

At the moment, I'm not allowed to ride in the park truck with my co-worker. Not a 6 foot distance in the seating. Plus, I'm wiping down the face of the mail boxes with cleaner/disinfectant every morning. Three groups of box areas, sections for over 200 residents. I use a mixture of chlorine( 12.5 %), just about a capful in the squirt bottle, add in some anti-bacterial hand soap, then fill with hot water the rest the rest of the way. Spray the box faces, then wipe down with a towel

[Red Gauntlet , SASS 60619]

29 minutes ago, Subdeacon Joe said:

 

Still not 60,000+ .  
So you suggest that next fall, when influenza hits and we see a similar number of total deaths we institute the same lockdown, distancing, masks, etc. that we have now.  Shut down all "non-essential" travel and business.

 

I search my brief remarks and do not find that I either said or suggested that.

[Subdeacon Joe]

10 minutes ago, Red Gauntlet , SASS 60619 said:

 

I search my brief remarks and do not find that I either said or suggested that.

 

Stated that bluntly, no. I just played out the reasoning and very strong implication of:
 

Quote

 

New York went from 20 deaths just three weeks ago to 4,800 two days ago. It definitely ain't the flu. The NY papers' obits are full of well-known and prominent folks, the ones with best access to care, dead of the virus in this short time.

 

On the West Coast, cases are coming under control well; California especially. The behavioral stuff is working according to every qualified person. We should keep it up.

 

To be consistent, whenever there is a life threatening epidemic of some sort - and who can honestly deny that the yearly flu season is an epidemic - then the State should enforce "the behavioral stuff" in order to keep the death toll down.  Isn't it worth it to prevent between 20,000 and 60,000 deaths from influenza?  Exact same reasoning.  

 

 

[Red Gauntlet , SASS 60619]

10 minutes ago, Subdeacon Joe said:

To be consistent, whenever there is a life threatening epidemic of some sort - and who can honestly deny that the yearly flu season is an epidemic - then the State should enforce "the behavioral stuff" in order to keep the death toll down.  Isn't it worth it to prevent between 20,000 and 60,000 deaths from influenza?  Exact same reasoning.  

 

But it can't be the "exact same reasoning", because if it was, that's what would happen every flu season. But it doesn't. So some other reasoning must have been applied, with enough force to call forth the current response from essentially all authorities, medical and political.

[Sgt. C.J. Sabre, SASS #46770]

7 minutes ago, Red Gauntlet , SASS 60619 said:

 

But it can't be the "exact same reasoning", because if it was, that's what would happen every flu season. But it doesn't. So some other reasoning must have been applied, with enough force to call forth the current response from essentially all authorities, medical and political.

The "other reasoning" is to blame the President and get him out of office!

[JD Lud]

Went to Home Depot in Sequim Washington today...packed with elderly....i was probably one of a handful I saw under 65.  Same as Lowe’s yesterday.  The checkout person commented something that stuck with me.....something to the effect of “the older people feel entitled to come out as much as they want as the younger people are supposed to be staying at home”....his words.  
 

What I have seen while out confirms this...at least in my eyes.  Again, if we believe those over 50 are more likely to have bad things happen if they catch this.....and we are trying to protect those people by staying home.....what the hell good are we really doing if a good number of them are all out feeling like it’s a great time to shop because less people.  As Bob pointed out the youth aren’t staying home and are getting together in groups and the older crowd is out shopping.  All the essential people are working....so who are the few that are staying home lol?

[Red Gauntlet , SASS 60619]

If one is interested in comparing flu statistics to the coronavirus thing, a quick web search on NY flu cases and deaths will bring up many articles and statistics, from just before the Covid thing hit. These will show that even in what has been seen as a bad flu season, the death toll is not remotely- remotely-- anywhere close to the toll from this thing.

[DocWard]

1 hour ago, Subdeacon Joe said:

 

Stated that bluntly, no. I just played out the reasoning and very strong implication of:
 

To be consistent, whenever there is a life threatening epidemic of some sort - and who can honestly deny that the yearly flu season is an epidemic - then the State should enforce "the behavioral stuff" in order to keep the death toll down.  Isn't it worth it to prevent between 20,000 and 60,000 deaths from influenza?  Exact same reasoning.  

 

 

 

Joe, the thing you aren't taking into account is the fact that influenza is "built in." We have an expectation that there will be a certain number of cases and the system can deal with them without the system itself failing. The problem with the current situation is that we have a healthcare system with a known finite capacity. Let's say, just to use a number, that it typically operates at 75% capacity. It can handle 100% capacity for brief periods of time without severe problems. Now, imagine suddenly you expect the system to work at 130% capacity. Something has to give, somewhere. That's why you hear "flatten the curve" so often. It doesn't necessarily mean lower the number of cases, although that is ideal. It means spread them out over time so the system doesn't overload. If the system does overload, it isn't just the COVID-19 patients who die. It's also the heart attacks, the strokes, the traumas, and more that might usually be saved.

[Subdeacon Joe]

"We have an expectation that there will be a certain number of cases and the system can deal with them without the system itself failing."

 

Then shouldn't we impose the same restrictions every flu season to keep the deaths,  and strain on the system,  down?   We have the model for it now, and if it saves one life, right?

That is my point,  the politicians now see how easy it is to put us under house arrest for our own good,  so why not during flu season to save lives?

 

 

[Red Gauntlet , SASS 60619]

1 minute ago, Subdeacon Joe said:

 

Then shouldn't we impose the same restrictions every flu season to keep the deaths,  and strain on the system,  down?   We have the model for it now, and if it saves one life, right?

 

I see Doc Ward's point as being that the ordinary flu season in fact does not strain the system, and so presumably the deaths would not be 'kept down' by draconian behavioral measures.

 

New York has had 5,000 deaths in three weeks from the virus. If you posited a 3-month flu season, then if flu death rates were 'the same', you'd have 20,000 deaths from the flu in NY alone at that rate. T'aint so, though, not by a super long shot.

 

On another note, as far as behavior is concerned, if people kept one thing permanent-- constant handwashing and use of sanitizer-- I'd bet money that seasonal flu rates would fall measurably. Wouldn't be a bad idea.

[DocWard]

18 minutes ago, Subdeacon Joe said:

"We have an expectation that there will be a certain number of cases and the system can deal with them without the system itself failing."

 

Then shouldn't we impose the same restrictions every flu season to keep the deaths,  and strain on the system,  down?   We have the model for it now, and if it saves one life, right?

That is my point,  the politicians now see how easy it is to put us under house arrest for our own good,  so why not during flu season to save lives?

 

 

 

To be blunt, this isn't about saving a life, or even lives, so much as it is avoiding systemic failure. With systemic failure of the healthcare system comes even greater problems. That is when panic hits. That is when the economy becomes worse than we ever imagined, even with the Great Depression. That is when martial law hits. Right now, we're griping about what is primarily major inconvenience and worrying about the unknown. We've seen what panic can do on a smaller scale in cities across the U.S. after disasters. Hurricane Katrina comes to mind. Now, think of it nationwide.

 

"If it saves one life..." I could do a laundry list of things that could start with that which we don't do. 55 mph speed limit anybody? Prohibition? When our populace feel our liberties are being curtailed for no good reason, we do actually tend to bristle. You may look for the dark underbelly and attribute nefarious motives and schemes to our politicians. Often enough, I can't say I disagree. However, I prefer to have a bit of optimism about our fellow citizens. Not to always do the right thing, but to do the right thing often enough. This is one of those times.