Hurricane Dorian - Get Ready Now!

[Dogmeat Dad, SASS #48563L]

To all my Florida Pards,

 

Keep an eye out for Dorian.  Latest info I saw says this is going to be a bad one.  The Weather Channel is calling for this storm to grow to a Category 4 before making landfall on the east coast of Florida somewhere around Fort Pierce on Labor Day Monday.

 

I know that for many of you, hurricanes are just part of live down there, but Be Safe and Be Prepared!  Do not wait until the last minute to get your supplies, or get the heck out of Dodge!  This one could be a bad one!

 

You can track the official information at the National Hurricane Center website.

 

[Cypress Sun]

Way ahead of ya Dogmeat. Already have most of the essentials.....Beer, water, food, generator, window ac unit, non-perishables and beer. Going to go get 50 gallons of E-0 gas for the generator tomorrow at , gulp, $3 a gallon.

 

Not going to be as bad here on the West coast though. I can always use the gas in my vehicle but I'm NOT going without ac again, no way.

 

Went to store today for normal stuff, people are already panic buying and it'll get MUCH worse.....always does.

 

West coast is going to be in for a nasty ride, good luck and be safe.

 

Sun

 

 

[Wyatt]

1 hour ago, Cypress Sun said:

Way ahead of ya Dogmeat. Already have most of the essentials.....Beer, water, food, generator, window ac unit, non-perishables and beer. Going to go get 50 gallons of E-0 gas for the generator tomorrow at , gulp, $3 a gallon.

 

Not going to be as bad here on the West coast though. I can always use the gas in my vehicle but I'm NOT going without ac again, no way.

 

Went to store today for normal stuff, people are already panic buying and it'll get MUCH worse.....always does.

 

West coast is going to be in for a nasty ride, good luck and be safe.

 

Sun

 

 

 

Good to know where to get cold beer 

 

 

Good luck everybody! Be safe!!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Dogmeat Dad, SASS #48563L]

58 minutes ago, Cypress Sun said:

Way ahead of ya Dogmeat. Already have most of the essentials.....Beer, water, food, generator, window ac unit, non-perishables and beer. Going to go get 50 gallons of E-0 gas for the generator tomorrow at , gulp, $3 a gallon.

 

Not going to be as bad here on the West coast though. I can always use the gas in my vehicle but I'm NOT going without ac again, no way.

 

Went to store today for normal stuff, people are already panic buying and it'll get MUCH worse.....always does.

 

West coast is going to be in for a nasty ride, good luck and be safe.

 

Sun

 

 

 

We are safely up here in Maryland, just south of the Mason-Dixon Line, having returned from our summer vacation in Florida just 2 weeks ago.  Looks like we got out just in time!  It's what I keep telling Lil, Snow Season in Florida, Hurricane Season in Maryland, watch it all on the Weather Channel, and spend the rest of the time where ever there is a good Cowboy Shoot!   Now if only it weren't for that pesky thing called W*RK!

 

Good to know you will be A-OK, and where to find Wyatt if the SHTF.     I would imagine that Waimea won't be far behind. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Cypress Sun]

16 minutes ago, Dogmeat Dad, SASS #48563L said:

 

We are safely up here in Maryland, just south of the Mason-Dixon Line, having returned from our summer vacation in Florida just 2 weeks ago.  Looks like we got out just in time!  It's what I keep telling Lil, Snow Season in Florida, Hurricane Season in Maryland, watch it all on the Weather Channel, and spend the rest of the time where ever there is a good Cowboy Shoot!   Now if only it weren't for that pesky thing called W*RK!

 

Good to know you will be A-OK, and where to find Wyatt if the SHTF.     I would imagine that Waimea won't be far behind. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I almost forgot about refugees. Now I'm gonna have to get some PBR for Wyatt and keep the good stuff for everyone else.

[Grizzly Dave]

Not too worried about it getting up here to the Colorado territory, but I reckon I should follow Cypress Sun's lead and stock up on beer anyway...

 

Ya'all stay safe down there!

 

Grizz

[Wyatt]

Hurricane Party at Sun’s house! I’ll bring the defrosting chicken, hamburgers, steaks, prime rib and BEACON...........and I get PBR! PARRRRTAY!

[Dogmeat Dad, SASS #48563L]

BEACON??  Like This??

 

[Wyatt]

Opps..........I’m gonna blame it on spellcheck and PBR 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Dogmeat Dad, SASS #48563L]

4 minutes ago, Wyatt said:

Opps..........I’m gonna blame it on spellcheck 

 

I just figured you wanted to make sure they found you when you went out for more beer. 

[Yul Lose]

So you Florida folks watch a lot of Pro Bull Riding, do you? What if your TV don’t work?

[Cypress Sun]

44 minutes ago, Yul Lose said:

So you Florida folks watch a lot of Pro Bull Riding, do you? What if your TV don’t work?

We just go to Walmart with a cooler of beer......much better than TV.

[Calico Mary]

you Florida folk are welcome to evacuate up here to Ohio....and help paint my new house while you're waiting the storm out.....I'll buy more beer!

[Cypress Sam, SASS #10915]

I’ll just go over to Sun’s house.  He already has everything we need:  beer, generator, beer, ac, and if it’s like Andrew, we may even have a shooting match.

[Chert Rock Chuck]

Yep, it's a way of life for those of us that live here. 

I'm inland, pretty well center of the state, so I guess it's a "best case" scenario most times.

 I have to work tomorrow, then helping family friends board up and prepare. Mom's place next, then back here to my place last to batten down the hatches. (usually in the rain)It's a routine I have refined through the years.

 I already have my generator and fuel ready, just have to board up and secure everything around the yard like the boat, quad and such...
Rumor has it, the Hernando bunch is gonna try to ride the storm and shoot on Sunday, here's to'em!

 I'll be pulling guard duty at Fort Livingroom on Sunday.

Buckle up, or saddle up Cracker Crew, it's about to get sporty!

Chertrock.

[Chief Rick]

The European model is currently showing Dorien to move back to the east coast and hang onto the east coast as it moves northward all the way up the coast. 

 

You folks in the Carolinas and Virginia's are not out of the woods yet. 

 

As far as that goes, neither are those of us farther along the gulf. 

[Dogmeat Dad, SASS #48563L]

Which ever model has it cutting a path of destruction straight across the state and then sitting over top of Oldsmar/Dunedin for 48 hours would be my bet, the AEMI model in this chart.  The place we stay down there seems to be a hurricane magnet!

 

 

[Yul Lose]

Never been in a hurricane so don’t know the answer to this, but do most people choose to stay and tough it out or do most leave? When the wild fires strike here everyone is supposed to evacuate in the affected areas most do some don’t. Getting away is sometimes very problematic because of crowded roads and freeways. What would be the tipping point for you guys to leave?

[Cypress Sun]

25 minutes ago, Chief Rick said:

The European model is currently showing Dorien to move back to the east coast and hang onto the east coast as it moves northward all the way up the coast. 

 

You folks in the Carolinas and Virginia's are not out of the woods yet. 

 

As far as that goes, neither are those of us farther along the gulf. 

 

The European model is the only one I go by. It's usually correct.

 

Dogmeat, you need to start staying further away from me during your Southern stay.  Where you stay is only about 8 miles away from me, take that bad juju somewhere else.....just kiddin pard.

[Cypress Sun]

Just now, Yul Lose said:

Never been in a hurricane so don’t know the answer to this, but do most people choose to stay and tough it out or do most leave? When the wild fires strike here everyone is supposed to evacuate in the affected areas most do some don’t. Getting away is sometimes very problematic because of crowded roads and freeways. What would be the tipping point for you guys to leave?

 

I live near the coast and am in a Evac 2 zone. Lake Seminole is only about a block away. Lake Seminole leads into the Gulf so storm tidal surge is a concern. Storm surge in a high Cat 4 or Cat 5 can be 20' or more above high tide mark. Me personally, I would leave only if the hurricane was a high Cat 3 or better.  Cat 4 hurricanes will take out all mobile homes and many older wood frame homes and destroy most power grids. Cat 5 storms will take out most everything short of solid concrete (including roof) structures and will destroy everything else.

 

After Hurricane Andrew, my boss decided to send a couple of crews down to Miami/Homestead area. He said it was to "help out", my ass, it was to try and make a quick killing doing electrical work. There really wasn't anything we could do, everything was completely destroyed and people were more than willing to shoot outsiders. The stench was unbelievable, rotted food, dead animals (and humans I guess), no sanitation facilities and no power. I defied my boss and came back after two days.

 

If I did have to leave for a Cat 4 or 5, I would probably go to my dads in the middle of the state. Problem is that you'd have to leave very early or you'll be sitting traffic during the storm. You also have to decide what to take with you, what's most important to you.....because chances are it won't be there when you get back.

 

About the only good thing with a Hurricane is that you know they're coming unlike earthquakes or tornadoes.

[Yul Lose]

7 minutes ago, Cypress Sun said:

 

I live near the coast and am in a Evac 2 zone. Lake Seminole is only about a block away. Lake Seminole leads into the Gulf so storm tidal surge is a concern. Storm surge in a high Cat 4 or Cat 5 can be 20' or more above high tide mark. Me personally, I would leave only if the hurricane was a high Cat 3 or better.  Cat 4 hurricanes will take out all mobile homes and many older wood frame homes and destroy most power grids. Cat 5 storms will take out most everything short of solid concrete (including roof) structures and will destroy everything else.

 

After Hurricane Andrew, my boss decided to send a couple of crews down to Miami/Homestead area. He said it was to "help out", my ass, it was to try and make a quick killing doing electrical work. There really wasn't anything we could do, everything was completely destroyed and people were more than willing to shoot outsiders. The stench was unbelievable, rotted food, dead animals (and humans I guess), no sanitation facilities and no power. I defied my boss and came back after two days.

 

If I did have to leave for a Cat 4 or 5, I would probably go to my dads in the middle of the state. Problem is that you'd have to leave very early or you'll be sitting traffic during the storm. You also have to decide what to take with you, what's most important to you.....because chances are it won't be there when you get back.

 

About the only good thing with a Hurricane is that you know they're coming unlike earthquakes or tornadoes.

That’s good information. I hope you folks come through this thing unscathed,

[Hoss]

We went they Harvey 2 years ago. It made landfall about 15 miles north of my office, which is right on the Bay. Being on the “good side” we had minimal damage. Blew in our shop doors. All of our tugs/barges were fine. But for every mile you moved north could see more damage. Rockport was really devastated. 

 

We evacuated ahead head of the storm. Officials called it a mandatory evacuation although they  cant actually make you leave. They can turn off utilities which make it hard to stay. We came back day after storm. Had a big tree down in yard, and it pulled power lines down. We’re wiyhout electricity for a few days. 

[Hoss]

All this PBR talk reminds me of one of my favorite songs!

 

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=4N3iVHxP8FQ

[Cypress Sun]

When I was a kid, we used to go down to Anna Maria island near Sarasota and stay a few days with some family friends who had a small bungalow type house directly across the street from the Gulf of Mexico beach. Across the street there was a slab of concrete sitting at about a 25 degree list with about a 1/4 of it in the water. One day I was watching tv and a commercial came on...."This is a hurricane proof house", showing a picture of a nice house on concrete pilings right on the water. Then it said "this is a hurricane proof house after a hurricane", it was that slab of concrete in Anna Maria. That image has stuck with me after all these years.

[Yul Lose]

48 minutes ago, Cypress Sun said:

When I was a kid, we used to go down to Anna Maria island near Sarasota and stay a few days with some family friends who had a small bungalow type house directly across the street from the Gulf of Mexico beach. Across the street there was a slab of concrete sitting at about a 25 degree list with about a 1/4 of it in the water. One day I was watching tv and a commercial came on...."This is a hurricane proof house", showing a picture of a nice house on concrete pilings right on the water. Then it said "this is a hurricane proof house after a hurricane", it was that slab of concrete in Anna Maria. That image has stuck with me after all these years.

Was that a 4 or 5 level Hurricane? Would modern building technology aid in its survival present day? When I built my work shop in 1994 we had to install hurricane anchors on all of the trusses. I imagine hurricane anchors out there are quite different than the ones that we used.

[Dogmeat Dad, SASS #48563L]

Just about everything built in Florida since Andrew has been CBS, Concrete, Block, & Stucco.  In flood prone zones, like the Keys, everything is 8-10' up on stilts.  Often there is a lower level built between the pilings, but the walls aren't attached to the pilings so the storm surge will just wash them away leaving the upper floors intact, assuming the surge is less than that.

 

Problem is that a large portion of Florida was built a long time ago.  The Condo my wife and I own (Been in the family since new) was built in '77 as I recall.  The codes were much different back then.  I often wonder if the windows in the place could withstand a stern talking too, much less a hurricane!   

[Cypress Sun]

1 hour ago, Yul Lose said:

Was that a 4 or 5 level Hurricane? Would modern building technology aid in its survival present day? When I built my work shop in 1994 we had to install hurricane anchors on all of the trusses. I imagine hurricane anchors out there are quite different than the ones that we used.

 

I really don't know what the Cat was on the hurricane that leveled the house. This was back in the mid to late 60's that we used to go down there. Truth is, when you build a house directly on the Gulf you're taking your chances. A 15' to 20' rise in the sea, along with the wave/tidal pounding would be enough to take down most anything I would think. If you look at the videos and pictures of the aftermath of Hurricane Michael last year, the structures built on and near the beaches did not survive the beating.

If I had to guess, even new structures build to present day building codes wouldn't stand up to such punishment.

 

After one hurricane that didn't even get close to us, I was out replacing receptacles/etc that had been flooded by salt water. Every homeowner was in some extent extreme distress except one old man. I told him that of the places that I'd been for repairs, he was the only one who wasn't freaking out. His exact words to me were "My daddy told me a long time ago, Son when you live on the water sooner or later you're gonna live in the water". He kind of chuckled but I didn't dare laugh.

[Dogmeat Dad, SASS #48563L]

Still calling for this storm to grow make Category 4 before making landfall on the east coast of Florida.  Then it looks like it's decided to turn right and take the I95 corridor straight up the coast.  I'm seeing numbers of like 20" of rain over a wide area.

 

[Dogmeat Dad, SASS #48563L]

 

I think this storm is likely to completely reshape the eastern seaboard of Florida.  Glad I visited Daytona again this year, it may be in Georgia by the time this thing ends.

 

Now, for those of you who have been putting off getting those much needed repairs done to your roof and installing Hurricane Clips, may I present the Ronco Roof-O-Matic Retension System.  Available for a limited time at Tractor Supply, Southern States, and many Truck Stops along the highway. 

 

 

 

Not to make light of a tense situation, but you guys check in once the storm clears.  Looks like the west coast will escape the brunt of this storm, but those along the eastern seaboard, Be Safe!

[Cypress Sam, SASS #10915]

Much of the coastline of Florida is barrier islands, which are completely made of sand.  When a tidal surge comes the sand is easily washed away.  It doesn’t really matter what the house was made of if the land on which it sat is gone and is now 10’ deep salt water.  Inland we are safe from tidal surges and most flooding and the wind loses strength after the hurricane comes ashore.

 

A serious hazard for those further inland is debris blowing in 100+ mph winds.  Trash cans and lawn furniture moving that fast can do some real damage.  There is also the danger of tornados spawned in a hurricane (think flying cows and pickup trucks.). I’ve got a picture somewhere of a Toyota pickup sitting nose down in someone’s living room from a hurricane (Charlie) spawned tornado.

 

We are about as ready as we can get, but there is always an element of luck involved.  (Like having this thing turn North and miss Florida completely.  We are in Kissimmee just South of Orlando so we’re hoping!

[Chief Rick]

On 8/30/2019 at 11:23 AM, Yul Lose said:

Was that a 4 or 5 level Hurricane? Would modern building technology aid in its survival present day? When I built my work shop in 1994 we had to install hurricane anchors on all of the trusses. I imagine hurricane anchors out there are quite different than the ones that we used.

If you watched or remember from Hurricane Michael moving through Mexico Beach, FL - there was really only one house that survived that beach front neighborhood.

Link

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[Jefro, SASS#69420]

On 8/30/2019 at 9:56 AM, Chief Rick said:

You folks in the Carolinas and Virginia's are not out of the woods yet. 

 

Yep, once they take that little click to the right they wind up right here. I was talking to one of they guys at the range today about how our part of the coast is shaped like a catchers mit. They gutter guy just finished the repairs here last week, two more walls to paint and I'm done

[Rye Miles #13621]

Stay safe all of you!

[Cypress Sam, SASS #10915]

The latest advisory for the hurricane (8:00am Sept 1) has it turning NNE sometime Monday and skirting the east coast of Central Florida Tuesday and Wednesday then on to Georgia and the Carolinas.  It’s beginning to look like while we will still get some wind and a lot of rain, we may have dodged the bullet on a major hit in Central Florida.  

 

It’s not good news for the ears coast of Florida and further north though.  With the eyewall just off shore and moving north up the coast, there is real danger of major flooding and rearranging of the shoreline.

[Cypress Sun]

This thing is now a monster. Winds are at an incredible 175 mph. Its about ready to directly smack the Northern Bahamas. I certainly hope that it does what the forecasters say and turn. There will still be plenty of damage along the east coast of Florida if it turns. If it turns later than expected or doesn't turn at all.....damage will be catastrophic.

 

I still say if you're west of it.....head east now while you still can. You can always come back if it doesn't strike directly or if it does.....come back and pick up what little will be left.

 

Good luck and please......don't let your ego override your brain and heart.