Subdeacon Joe Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Quote Scott Osborn Follow · 21 hrs · During WWII, the Navy tried to determine where they needed to armor their aircraft to ensure they came back home. They ran an analysis of where planes had been shot up, and came up with this. Obviously the places that needed to be up-armored are the wingtips, the central body, and the elevators. That’s where the planes were all getting shot up. Abraham Wald, a statistician, disagreed. He thoughtthey should better armor the nose area, engines, and mid-body. Which was crazy, of course. That’s not where the planes were getting shot. Except Mr. Wald realized what the others didn’t. The planes were getting shot there too, but they weren’t making it home. What the Navy thought it had done was analyze where aircraft were suffering the most damage. What they had actually done was analyze where aircraft could suffer the most damage without catastrophic failure. All of the places that weren’t hit? Those planes had been shot there and crashed. They weren’t looking at the whole sample set, only the survivors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J-BAR #18287 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 It can be difficult to determine which is the cause and which is the effect. If you watch closely in restaurants you will see a lot of fat folks eating salad. It would be easy to conclude that salads make a person obese... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Lake Kid, SASS # 51474 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Hard to imagine that, viewing the pattern of shot dispersion, they didn't clue in fast, that the areas with no shot holes just might be significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marshal Mo Hare, SASS #45984 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Looks like the middle of the wings was also a bad spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pat Riot Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 I wonder if they had put armor on the planes where they thought they should and the planes did not return if they may have thought “Gee, maybe the armor is too heavy or it’s causing other problems so we will remove it all together.”? I wonder how many lives Me Wald saved? Thanks Joe. Good post. Makes one think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyesa Horg Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 On 3/1/2019 at 8:00 PM, J-BAR #18287 said: It can be difficult to determine which is the cause and which is the effect. If you watch closely in restaurants you will see a lot of fat folks eating salad. It would be easy to conclude that salads make a person obese... But, obviously it's spoons and forks that make people fat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocWard Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subdeacon Joe Posted March 3, 2019 Author Share Posted March 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, DocWard said: Thanks, Doc. I had been tried to find it but my google-fu failed me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocWard Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 4 hours ago, Subdeacon Joe said: Thanks, Doc. I had been tried to find it but my google-fu failed me. I subscribe to his youtube channel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sgt. C.J. Sabre, SASS #46770 Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 As always the people making decisions not asking the people doing the work what they need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trailrider #896 Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 "Common sense" ought to tell those so-called experts that the cockpit and the fuel tanks are the most vulnerable areas, especially on Japanese planes, which were not armored. Except for the armor plate protecting the pilots of our fighters, and self-sealing gas tanks, the toll on our planes would have been much higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sgt. C.J. Sabre, SASS #46770 Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 1 minute ago, Trailrider #896 said: "Common sense" ought to tell those so-called experts that the cockpit and the fuel tanks are the most vulnerable areas, especially on Japanese planes, which were not armored. Except for the armor plate protecting the pilots of our fighters, and self-sealing gas tanks, the toll on our planes would have been much higher. You don't need common sense to get a degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trailrider #896 Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 That's true. I graduated summa cum lousy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sixgun Sheridan Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 12 hours ago, Trailrider #896 said: "Common sense" ought to tell those so-called experts that the cockpit and the fuel tanks are the most vulnerable areas, especially on Japanese planes, which were not armored. Except for the armor plate protecting the pilots of our fighters, and self-sealing gas tanks, the toll on our planes would have been much higher. The Japanese apparently felt that if you allowed some filthy gaijin's bullet to hit your airplane then you'd insulted the Emperor's honor and deserved to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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