Weasels to the rescue!

[Subdeacon Joe]

1952, Southern Pacific "City of San Francisco" Snowbound

 

[Sedalia Dave]

Wonder if the upcoming storm will cause a repeat???

[Subdeacon Joe]

Wonder if the upcoming storm will cause a repeat???

 

 

This one is a "Pineapple Express" so it's warm and wet. Lots of rain even in the Sierra.

 

 

 

 

fxus65 krev 071134

afdrev

 

Area forecast discussion

National Weather Service Reno Nevada

334 am PST Sat Jan 7 2017

 

Synopsis...

snow with possible freezing rain today will transition to heavy

rain and heavy mountain snow in most areas tonight, with extreme

amounts of rain Sunday through early Monday. Significant flooding

is expected for mainstem rivers, creeks, and streams Sunday into

Monday. Another atmospheric river event is looking likely for the

middle of next week with a couple of colder storms to follow the

end of next week.

 

&&

 

Short term...

 

* today, precip starting as snow, then changing to rain in most

areas.

* Possible freezing rain in some colder valleys today-tonight,

with greatest risk north and east of Susanville-Lovelock.

* Intense rainfall with flooding expected Sunday-Monday. Finish

preparations now!

* Several feet of additional snow for highest Sierra elevations,

above 9000-10000 feet.

* Poor conditions for travel and outdoor activities this weekend.

 

All systems are go for the strong atmospheric river event starting

today and continuing into Monday, with the most intense precip

Sunday and Sunday night. Before we get to the heavy rain and

flooding concerns, today will have another another round of

winter precipitation with cold air mass currently in place. Snow

has already begun in northeast California around Bogard and west of

Susanville as moisture increases on the leading edge of the deep

moisture feed associated with the atmospheric river.

 

This snow will spread into the remainder of the Sierra and much of

western Nevada mainly north of US-50 this morning. Snowfall amounts

for Mono County near and west of US-395 will be similar to the

Tahoe zone (8-16 inches thru this evening above 7000 feet) so they

were added to the advisory. Due to the sharply colder surface air

that will be difficult to scour out, snow may persist into the

afternoon around the Reno-Carson-Susanville vicinity eastward to

Fernley-Fallon before warmer air breaks through and changes the

snow to rain. In fact, much of the Tahoe basin is likely to see a

changeover to rain before the Reno area and other valleys in

western Nevada/northeast California. We left in a mention of possible freezing

rain along the US-395 corridor, but if any freezing rain occurs

in these areas it would be brief.

 

Farther north into Pershing and northern Washoe counties, the

Surprise Valley and far northeast Lassen County, mostly snow is

expected today, followed by a better potential for freezing rain

this evening which could persist overnight, as a very shallow

layer of cold air will be even more difficult to scour out. There

are some breaks in the steady precip areas for part of tonight

which could limit the ice accumulations, but if the cold temps

near the surface fail to surpass the freezing mark before daybreak

Sunday, some of these areas could receive ice accumulations

between 0.10 and 0.20 inch. This weekend is already a poor choice

for non-emergency travel, and adding ice to the mix will make

conditions especially dangerous including I-80 from Lovelock

eastward across central Nevada.

 

Aside from these colder valleys, snow levels should rise rather

quickly by this afternoon or tonight as deeper moisture and

warmer air arrives. Snow levels are forecast to peak by early

Sunday morning, then remain steady through Sunday evening. This

will coincide with the most intense precipitation. North of I-80

we're looking at snow levels near 8000 feet, near 9000 feet for

Reno-Carson-Tahoe, and 9000-10000 feet south of US-50 including

Mono County. Snow levels should finally drop again late Sunday

night through Monday, with precip changing back to snow for most

Sierra passes by early-mid morning, and around the Tahoe basin

during the morning or midday. Snow amounts on the back side of

this storm system are difficult to project at this time, as some

of the guidance tries to wind down the heavier precip a little

more quickly, but at least a few inches could accumulate around

lake level in the Tahoe basin. Some snow or snow showers may

return to some western Nevada valleys by Monday evening.

 

We are holding on to similar precip projections through Monday as

liquid totals along the Sierra crest through the foothills west

of US-395 could easily reach 6 to 12 inches. Along US-395, rain

totals around 2-4 inches are likely with up to 2 inches possible

for areas to the east. Additional snow totals above the snow line

could easily reach 3 to 8 feet with the character of the snow

being very heavy and wet. Avalanche danger is likely to increase

through the weekend with backcountry activities not recommended.

 

As far as winds, they will be strong and gusty across ridge

lines, with peak gusts over 100 mph. In lower elevations, winds

are not anticipated to be as strong with gusts mainly around 30

mph. However, stronger gusts above 40 mph are possible at times,

especially on Sunday and Monday. Mjd

 

Long term...Tuesday to Saturday...

 

* atmospheric river with feet of snow possible in the Sierra Jan 10-

11

* minor nuisance flooding may still be an issue below 6000 feet

 

The GFS and ec have some differences with regards to the next Arkansas for

Tue-Wed, but the general idea remains the same. This next one will

not be quite as strong, and it will also be colder overall with snow

levels remaining 7000 feet or below. The GFS overall is a little

colder and keeps snow levels below about 6000 feet while the ec

briefly raises them to 6000 feet near the Oregon border to 7000 feet

for Mono County. Another item that is consistent is that this storm

will bring stronger winds with it, but given the ample moisture and

the thermodynamic/kinematic profiles they shouldn't be excessive.

 

The Tue-Wed storm is coming in two parts with the first part early

Tuesday and colder before the stronger, wetter and slightly warmer

wave arrives Tuesday night into Wednesday. In fact, with the waves

so close together due to the strong jet, some places in the Sierra

may not see a break in precip once it begins today. Several feet of

snow in the Sierra above 7000 feet still look possible with a couple

feet down to 5500 to 6000 feet. There will be plenty of precip

below 6000 feet into western Nevada as well, but it looks to be mostly

rain. Flooding concerns look to be much less due to the lower

snow levels.

 

As far as the winds, they will peak Tuesday afternoon with some

gusts 45-55 mph in the valleys possible. As mentioned above, with

the moist airmass and wind profiles, a strong breaking wave looks

unlikely.

 

A bit of a break is expected Wednesday night with another storm

arriving Thursday-Friday. It looks to be colder, and also not quite

as strong. In fact, the models are keeping the Arkansas signal to the

south of US so it may not be quite as wet as it looked a couple days

ago. Still, some snow is likely for all elevations creating travel

issues with some rain mixing in on the Lower Valley floors. The

models are now showing the storm track to then lift north next

weekend, giving US a break for at least a couple days if not

longer. Wallmann

 

&&

 

Aviation...

strong storm to affect the region through Monday. For today, snow

will spread over all areas this morning with IFR conds thru 19z.

Then a change to -fzra is possible for krno-kcxp-ktrk until 22z when

enough warm air moves in to change all precip there to rain. For

ktvl/kmmh, precip will be snow through 18z, then changeover to plain

rain.

 

From ksve-klol and the NE, snow will hang on longer, possibly

through 03z with a longer period of -fzra. All areas will be rain by

12z sun. Until the changeover, runway accumulations of 2-6 inches

are possible on all area terminals with the exception of knfl/khth.

 

During the day Sunday, we are still expecting heavy rain to affect

all terminals with ponding of water an issue through 06z, then a

changeover back to snow is possible from 06-12z for the Sierra

terminals. Surface winds are not expected to be much of an issue with

peak gusts to 30 kts. There will be mtn wave turbulence, but low level wind shear is

not expected to be significant due to the heavy precip.

 

For krno, there is the possibility of some flooding from Steamboat

and dry creeks backing up on the southeast portion of the Airport. The best

chance for this occurring is after 21z Sunday.

 

More impacts are likely Mon-Wed with periods of rain and snow, with

heavy snow possible for Sierra terminals. Low level wind shear and mtn wave

turbulence are also more likely for the Tuesday period. Wallmann

https://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc.asp?DiscussionCode=REV&StateCode=CA&SafeCityName=Mammoth_Lakes

[Forty Rod SASS 3935]

1952, Southern Pacific "City of San Francisco" Snowbound

 

Never saw weasels with enclosed cabs before. Some good (not very long) scenes a PA-1/PB-2 locomotives, one of the most beautiful engines ever.

[Badger Mountain Charlie SASS #43172]

HUH! Not one word about GLOBAL WARMING.