Subdeacon Joe Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1952, Southern Pacific "City of San Francisco" Snowbound Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sedalia Dave Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Wonder if the upcoming storm will cause a repeat??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subdeacon Joe Posted January 7, 2017 Author Share Posted January 7, 2017 Wonder if the upcoming storm will cause a repeat??? This one is a "Pineapple Express" so it's warm and wet. Lots of rain even in the Sierra. fxus65 krev 071134afdrev Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Reno Nevada 334 am PST Sat Jan 7 2017 Synopsis... snow with possible freezing rain today will transition to heavy rain and heavy mountain snow in most areas tonight, with extreme amounts of rain Sunday through early Monday. Significant flooding is expected for mainstem rivers, creeks, and streams Sunday into Monday. Another atmospheric river event is looking likely for the middle of next week with a couple of colder storms to follow the end of next week. && Short term... * today, precip starting as snow, then changing to rain in most areas. * Possible freezing rain in some colder valleys today-tonight, with greatest risk north and east of Susanville-Lovelock. * Intense rainfall with flooding expected Sunday-Monday. Finish preparations now! * Several feet of additional snow for highest Sierra elevations, above 9000-10000 feet. * Poor conditions for travel and outdoor activities this weekend. All systems are go for the strong atmospheric river event starting today and continuing into Monday, with the most intense precip Sunday and Sunday night. Before we get to the heavy rain and flooding concerns, today will have another another round of winter precipitation with cold air mass currently in place. Snow has already begun in northeast California around Bogard and west of Susanville as moisture increases on the leading edge of the deep moisture feed associated with the atmospheric river. This snow will spread into the remainder of the Sierra and much of western Nevada mainly north of US-50 this morning. Snowfall amounts for Mono County near and west of US-395 will be similar to the Tahoe zone (8-16 inches thru this evening above 7000 feet) so they were added to the advisory. Due to the sharply colder surface air that will be difficult to scour out, snow may persist into the afternoon around the Reno-Carson-Susanville vicinity eastward to Fernley-Fallon before warmer air breaks through and changes the snow to rain. In fact, much of the Tahoe basin is likely to see a changeover to rain before the Reno area and other valleys in western Nevada/northeast California. We left in a mention of possible freezing rain along the US-395 corridor, but if any freezing rain occurs in these areas it would be brief. Farther north into Pershing and northern Washoe counties, the Surprise Valley and far northeast Lassen County, mostly snow is expected today, followed by a better potential for freezing rain this evening which could persist overnight, as a very shallow layer of cold air will be even more difficult to scour out. There are some breaks in the steady precip areas for part of tonight which could limit the ice accumulations, but if the cold temps near the surface fail to surpass the freezing mark before daybreak Sunday, some of these areas could receive ice accumulations between 0.10 and 0.20 inch. This weekend is already a poor choice for non-emergency travel, and adding ice to the mix will make conditions especially dangerous including I-80 from Lovelock eastward across central Nevada. Aside from these colder valleys, snow levels should rise rather quickly by this afternoon or tonight as deeper moisture and warmer air arrives. Snow levels are forecast to peak by early Sunday morning, then remain steady through Sunday evening. This will coincide with the most intense precipitation. North of I-80 we're looking at snow levels near 8000 feet, near 9000 feet for Reno-Carson-Tahoe, and 9000-10000 feet south of US-50 including Mono County. Snow levels should finally drop again late Sunday night through Monday, with precip changing back to snow for most Sierra passes by early-mid morning, and around the Tahoe basin during the morning or midday. Snow amounts on the back side of this storm system are difficult to project at this time, as some of the guidance tries to wind down the heavier precip a little more quickly, but at least a few inches could accumulate around lake level in the Tahoe basin. Some snow or snow showers may return to some western Nevada valleys by Monday evening. We are holding on to similar precip projections through Monday as liquid totals along the Sierra crest through the foothills west of US-395 could easily reach 6 to 12 inches. Along US-395, rain totals around 2-4 inches are likely with up to 2 inches possible for areas to the east. Additional snow totals above the snow line could easily reach 3 to 8 feet with the character of the snow being very heavy and wet. Avalanche danger is likely to increase through the weekend with backcountry activities not recommended. As far as winds, they will be strong and gusty across ridge lines, with peak gusts over 100 mph. In lower elevations, winds are not anticipated to be as strong with gusts mainly around 30 mph. However, stronger gusts above 40 mph are possible at times, especially on Sunday and Monday. Mjd Long term...Tuesday to Saturday... * atmospheric river with feet of snow possible in the Sierra Jan 10- 11 * minor nuisance flooding may still be an issue below 6000 feet The GFS and ec have some differences with regards to the next Arkansas for Tue-Wed, but the general idea remains the same. This next one will not be quite as strong, and it will also be colder overall with snow levels remaining 7000 feet or below. The GFS overall is a little colder and keeps snow levels below about 6000 feet while the ec briefly raises them to 6000 feet near the Oregon border to 7000 feet for Mono County. Another item that is consistent is that this storm will bring stronger winds with it, but given the ample moisture and the thermodynamic/kinematic profiles they shouldn't be excessive. The Tue-Wed storm is coming in two parts with the first part early Tuesday and colder before the stronger, wetter and slightly warmer wave arrives Tuesday night into Wednesday. In fact, with the waves so close together due to the strong jet, some places in the Sierra may not see a break in precip once it begins today. Several feet of snow in the Sierra above 7000 feet still look possible with a couple feet down to 5500 to 6000 feet. There will be plenty of precip below 6000 feet into western Nevada as well, but it looks to be mostly rain. Flooding concerns look to be much less due to the lower snow levels. As far as the winds, they will peak Tuesday afternoon with some gusts 45-55 mph in the valleys possible. As mentioned above, with the moist airmass and wind profiles, a strong breaking wave looks unlikely. A bit of a break is expected Wednesday night with another storm arriving Thursday-Friday. It looks to be colder, and also not quite as strong. In fact, the models are keeping the Arkansas signal to the south of US so it may not be quite as wet as it looked a couple days ago. Still, some snow is likely for all elevations creating travel issues with some rain mixing in on the Lower Valley floors. The models are now showing the storm track to then lift north next weekend, giving US a break for at least a couple days if not longer. Wallmann && Aviation... strong storm to affect the region through Monday. For today, snow will spread over all areas this morning with IFR conds thru 19z. Then a change to -fzra is possible for krno-kcxp-ktrk until 22z when enough warm air moves in to change all precip there to rain. For ktvl/kmmh, precip will be snow through 18z, then changeover to plain rain. From ksve-klol and the NE, snow will hang on longer, possibly through 03z with a longer period of -fzra. All areas will be rain by 12z sun. Until the changeover, runway accumulations of 2-6 inches are possible on all area terminals with the exception of knfl/khth. During the day Sunday, we are still expecting heavy rain to affect all terminals with ponding of water an issue through 06z, then a changeover back to snow is possible from 06-12z for the Sierra terminals. Surface winds are not expected to be much of an issue with peak gusts to 30 kts. There will be mtn wave turbulence, but low level wind shear is not expected to be significant due to the heavy precip. For krno, there is the possibility of some flooding from Steamboat and dry creeks backing up on the southeast portion of the Airport. The best chance for this occurring is after 21z Sunday. More impacts are likely Mon-Wed with periods of rain and snow, with heavy snow possible for Sierra terminals. Low level wind shear and mtn wave turbulence are also more likely for the Tuesday period. Wallmann https://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc.asp?DiscussionCode=REV&StateCode=CA&SafeCityName=Mammoth_Lakes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forty Rod SASS 3935 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1952, Southern Pacific "City of San Francisco" Snowbound Never saw weasels with enclosed cabs before. Some good (not very long) scenes a PA-1/PB-2 locomotives, one of the most beautiful engines ever. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Badger Mountain Charlie SASS #43172 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 HUH! Not one word about GLOBAL WARMING. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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