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- - - Inflation - - - my view . . .


Wolfgang, SASS #53480

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I judge the rate of inflation by the "sausage index" . . . . :)

 

 

 

One of the essentials to life ( for me ) is SAUSAGE . . . . :)

 

 

 

 

 

. . . and I like all kinds and brands of sausage . . .

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

but a "staple" is Farmer John's Sausage Links . . . . .

 

 

 

 

 

5 years ago there would be an occasional sale on Farmer John's sausage links and I'd stock up at $ .49 pr package.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

During the past year when there is an occasional "sale" the lowest price has been $ .99 pr package.

 

 

 

 

 

 

This being a 100% rise in price . . . over five years . . . .I figure the actual inflation rate to be 20%.

 

 

 

 

 

What is your outlook on inflation ? . . . . :huh:

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Since Obama took office...

 

Gas is up 106%

Real Family Income is down 5%

Federal Debt is up 52%

Persons in Poverty is up by 6.4 million

Foodstamp recipients are up 46%

 

but good news:

Handgun production is up 68% :lol:

 

4 years ago I was paying $18.75/k for my pistol bullets. Now I can't find them for less than $50/k

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Since Obama took office...

 

Gas is up 106%

Real Family Income is down 5%

Federal Debt is up 52%

Persons in Poverty is up by 6.4 million

Foodstamp recipients are up 46%

 

but good news:

Handgun production is up 68% :lol:/>

 

4 years ago I was paying $18.75/k for my pistol bullets. Now I can't find them for less than $50/k

 

That's because the price of LEAD has gone up...just like Gold, Silver, Copper, and all metals. Just sayin'

 

Jake

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What's my outlook on inflation ?

 

 

 

I aint lookin' cuz der's no light at da end of da tunnel !

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Yeah, we have commodity inflation in some things. But, overall the wealth destruction that has happened since we began deflating again in 2000 destroyed the value of assets from homes to cars to land to ... well... you name it has more than tripled any wealth effect due to inflation.

 

Make no mistake, we've been in a deflationary depression since at least 2003. One asset group after another has been taken down. According to the only guy who has nailed the forecast since about 1982, Gary A Shilling, it's not over yet either. At some point historically, deflationary depressions take all asset classes back to pre-bubble levels.

 

Here is a test- find me a single person that doesn't know the story about why/how gold and all precious metals is going to go over $2000. Now, find me a single person that has been long 30 yr Treasuries in the last 5 years. Absolutely no one predicted that the 30 year yield would be below 3% except Shilling. The average return has been over 12% compounded. And while all the other 'experts' have barely broken even since 2008 a buy/write program in the TLT has yielded almost 14% for 2012.

 

Simple... make money from the obvious... and if it's obvious then it's obviously wrong. That's why it ain't easy.

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