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Investing in gold?


J-BAR #18287

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I alwqys think of the old Twilight Zone episode where the scientist hires some bank-robbers and freezes everybody after the heist. They plan to wake-up after 100 years so they won't be wanted anymore and they will be "rich men" starting fresh. Anyone remember how that turned out? ;)

 

Bodine

No. But if it was the Twilight Zone, then they will have gotten themselves into a pickle with it somehow. Gold worthless at that time? All for nothing?

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Very interesting to see what is happening with Gold prices and with the economy as a whole and the ongoing fiasco in Washington. Where is it going ? . . . I don't know . . . just watching the show. Glad I was putting my long term savings into Gold back when it was at less then half of what it is selling for now.

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If you bought gold at $800 you're very happy right now. If you bought at $1500 you'll be at least pleased. But if you chase the metal you have a chance of being very unhappy.

 

In 1970 the price of gold was at $200 (all prices per ounce). In 1975 it hit $800. 1980 the price of hold hit $2395. by 1985 it was $600. In 2000 it was $400. In 2005, $500. In 2010, $1200. Today, check the market.

 

During these times there were a bunch of gyrations in price. Gold produces no dividend and costs money to store. In general it has a place in a portfolio but is a poor basket in which to put all your assets.

 

SQQ

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No. But if it was the Twilight Zone, then they will have gotten themselves into a pickle with it somehow. Gold worthless at that time? All for nothing?

 

 

Yep on both counts.

 

They hid in a cave and "slept" in cryogenic cyliders. One guy's glass got broke by falling rock and he was just bones when the other three woke up. The head bad guy killed-off the other bad guy right out of the chute, so it was down to just the scientist and the head honcho bad guy. The bad guy was smart enough to take water but the scientist was sure they would just walk into a nearby town in no-time. Well, the old truck they had all the gold bars in wouldn't start of course, so the two of them had to carry all the gold bars through the desert.

 

Well, the bad guy kept the water and charges the scientist one gold bar for each drink. Finally the scientist cracked the bad-guy over the head with his last bar of gold. Now he had to carry all the gold his-self and starts leaving a trail of discarded gold bars as he runs outta water and energy. Finally, clutching his last bar, he is dying in the desert. A hovercraft type two seater pulss up alongside and a man and woman get out and bend over him. In his last breath he offers his gold for a drink, then he dies. The woman asks "What did he say? What did he want?" The man says, "Poor old fool. He was clutching that bar of gold as if were actually worth something. They figured out how to make synthetic metals years ago. Lets og back and tell the authorities so someone can collect him." and they sped away from the scene leaving the scientist and the gold behind, useless as they were.

 

That's the story as best I can condense it here. Twilight Zone was the Aesops Fables of my generation.

 

Bodine

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Some may know that this was my business for almost 12 years. Finally my conscience wouldn't take it anymore and I started my own little company in 1981. Trading from time to time has gotten me over some enormous rough spots. I haven't always been right, but on some very big things... I've been very big right.

 

That said, no one ever truly knows what is going to happen. The only thing for sure is that the price is always the last arbiter, right or wrong. It really doesn't matter; gold towns, manias, booms and busts are all only due to price and timing.

 

Timing is tricky to say the least, however, there are those who are better at it than others because they study it. Sometimes they're early and sometimes late... but at least they have a clue. Most often their services are expensive and sometimes they're priceless.

 

I follow a couple of those, pay pretty hefty monthly fees for them. The reason I'm telling you this is that one service that I've followed for over 30 years (and paid for) has one of the best letters this month that I've ever read. It's also a copyrighted publication (can't give it away). This is one of the greatest turning points in the history of all financial turning points.

 

Properly positioned investors will see the greatest returns in history over the next four years, but it's not a rosy picture at all.

 

Do yourself a favor and subscribe: ROBERT PRECHTER: ELLIOT WAVE LETTER

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Thanks all. Ditto on twilight zone.

 

King: I have trended more n more to follow Cramer, have read his books, subscribe. I used to think he was obnoxious, but learned he does some of that to be entertaining, but is extremely well clued in, and I've made money every year.

 

How does the service you recommend relate to his?

 

Tks

 

iPhone

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King: Is Elliot Wave for day trading? Just trying to learn. I'm interested in your views. The concepts of his thoughts wouldn't be copyrighted; just his verbiage have u signed a confidentiality agreement w him?

 

Me, though, I'm not a day trader I'm longer term than that. Cramer based on fundamentals mostly, and legislation, international economies, fed actions....... Lots. Earnings, revenue growth, profits, outlook...

 

Iphone

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I suppose that you could use any of them for day trading/ investing or otherwise. But, "no" Prechter is a timing tactician and socionomics expert. He's more accurate than any of them I've watched since 1976.

 

As to Mr. Cramer, he's a pro and in my view darn good at what he does. He gets it right more often than wrong and that's hard to do on a daily basis. And yes, he's a nut besides! :wacko: But, all the great ones are a bit eccentric in the least and absolutely crazy sometimes, too.

 

My mentor at Lehman often said, "Never confuse brains with a bull market." That may be the best advice that I've ever been given. All of those great metrics are great when metrics are working, but not one single expert would have told you that the comparison appraisals on my farm would have gone from $2.3m to $510k in 4 years. NOT ONE! Same farm, remodeled, better located because of factors no one projected.... but if square footage was worth $150 in 2005 it's now $75 and acreage was $39k and is now almost useless.

 

Be careful of those who justify price declines saying, "But now it's REALLY CHEAP." When charts go up from left to right "BUY" and when they start down from left to right "SELL". Because the "Trend is your friend until the bend at the end." :D Put in sell stops.... then DO IT. Raise them up in bull markets and when they're hit in bear markets just suck it up and be happy you've got money.

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well at this moment gold is back down $80 but still over $1800. Silver is staying above $40

 

It is a mute point to me as I don't plan on selling what gold and silver I do have. (I had to peel off 2oz in April for the taxman, very reluctantly) but I just like the stuff and I have had my silver ingots and bars since it was $4 per oz.

 

so I just enjoy seeing what it is doing. if it drops alot, I might buy some. and in the meantime, I will see what I can find up in the canyon.

 

curley

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I alwqys think of the old Twilight Zone episode where the scientist hires some bank-robbers and freezes everybody after the heist. They plan to wake-up after 100 years so they won't be wanted anymore and they will be "rich men" starting fresh. Anyone remember how that turned out? ;)

 

Bodine

 

 

 

I haven't waken up yet :P

 

 

TF

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Now to address the idea of trading/selling your gold..Rule of thumb has always been not to lock your self into having just large gold...and that idea works for me cuz being a "working man" I couldn't always afford to buy one oz. So I would get half, quarter and even 1 10th oz eagles. Eagles are the easiest gold to sell/trade. And if the big one comes. you can kick out a 1 10th oz for your can of beans.

 

 

American Gold Eagle 1 0z. $1924

American Gold Eagle 1/2 oz. 1009

American Gold Eagle 1/4 oz. 514

American Gold Eagle 1/10 oz. 211

 

American Silver Eagle 1 oz. $47

 

For daily transactions such as food 1/10 gold and 1 oz. silver are the most convenient and practical. Gold and silver have always had value through the history of man whereas paper is only as good as the peoples faith in the government. A gold coin minted during the Civil War will still have its value in gold content as compared to a dollar printed by the Confederates.

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I'd invest in heirloom seeds, water, and food storage myself. Gold and silver don't eat well, nor get ya water when it's scarce. As for precious metals, lead, brass and copper-jacket lead is a sound investment. Just a thought but when all you have is gold and silver, those with food, water, and lead will soon have it too. ;)

 

Bodine

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well at this moment gold is back down $80 but still over $1800. Silver is staying above $40

 

It is a mute point to me as I don't plan on selling what gold and silver I do have. (I had to peel off 2oz in April for the taxman, very reluctantly) but I just like the stuff and I have had my silver ingots and bars since it was $4 per oz.

 

so I just enjoy seeing what it is doing. if it drops alot, I might buy some. and in the meantime, I will see what I can find up in the canyon.

 

curley

 

I hope you do well with the panning Curley! One of these days I'd like to give it a try, if nothing else just so I could say I've done it.

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I'd invest in heirloom seeds, water, and food storage myself. Gold and silver don't eat well, nor get ya water when it's scarce. As for precious metals, lead, brass and copper-jacket lead is a sound investment. Just a thought but when all you have is gold and silver, those with food, water, and lead will soon have it too. ;)

 

Bodine

 

And I'll have yours too if I have more lead than you. :lol::lol::lol:

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I hope you do well with the panning Curley! One of these days I'd like to give it a try, if nothing else just so I could say I've done it.

 

 

Ethan

 

Anytime ya gots some time, let me know. We can go up to the canyon and you can try yer hand. I have pans,sluice box picks, most of the tools. even have an inexpensive metal dector to try, but yer best bet will be to get your pan in the water. A guy from GPAA (Gold Prospectors Assc. of America) gave me a good tip of a place to try just above where all the folks and tv guys go at nugget alley.

Little over 30 minutes above the 210 fwy and you can be panning.

 

LLC pannin

 

here is a shot when a bunch of us including Laylow went up to dip a pan. we did more socializin but had a heck of a good time..

 

curley

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If you bought gold at $800 you're very happy right now. If you bought at $1500 you'll be at least pleased. But if you chase the metal you have a chance of being very unhappy.

In 1970 the price of gold was at $200 (all prices per ounce). In 1975 it hit $800. 1980 the price of hold hit $2395. by 1985 it was $600. In 2000 it was $400. In 2005, $500. In 2010, $1200. Today, check the market.

During these times there were a bunch of gyrations in price. Gold produces no dividend and costs money to store. In general it has a place in a portfolio but is a poor basket in which to put all your assets.

SQQ

 

By my own rough calculations the "paper dollar" of today is worth $.08 of what it was in the early '70s. So the $ 200 for an oz. of gold in those days relates in "paper dollar" puchasing power to what Gold is today at around the $ 2,000 pr oz.

 

I do not attempt to "make" a "paper dollar" profit on the swings in the dollar price of Gold. But to have a part of my assets liquid in the form of Gold coins as I figure there has to be a crisis ( a REAL ONE not like recent stuff ) with the U.S. dollar within the forseeable future. Why ? Our government can't even pay current expenses with income . . . must keep borrowing to do so . . . and has NO WAY of paying off it's debts and obligations.

 

good ILLUSTRATION of it.

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American Gold Eagle 1 0z. $1924

American Gold Eagle 1/2 oz. 1009

American Gold Eagle 1/4 oz. 514

American Gold Eagle 1/10 oz. 211

 

American Silver Eagle 1 oz. $47

 

For daily transactions such as food 1/10 gold and 1 oz. silver are the most convenient and practical. Gold and silver have always had value through the history of man whereas paper is only as good as the peoples faith in the government. A gold coin minted during the Civil War will still have its value in gold content as compared to a dollar printed by the Confederates.

 

A tenth of an oz. of gold or a one oz silver dollar have too high a value for use in a "barter economy". I don't think a total monetary crisis could produce a "barter economy" at all, . . if it did not for very long. But just in case I have a plastic bag full of old "silver dimes" that would be appropriate for such use.

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