Poor Macro Environment

[Aunt Jen]

Hi, guys,

 

I'm not an economist, but I try to learn and keep aware. It's looking to me like there's a very poor macro environment. I see major problems happening or brewing in the U.S., Europe, and China—any one of which could negatively affect other economies.

 

In the U.S., I'm concerned that the U.S. has been downgraded for the first time in its history, and during a fragile economy that was struggling to pull itself out of "the Great Recession."

 

I'm wondering if we may slide into another recession, really another part of the same great recession. I'm looking at financial system regulatory problems, SEC regulations problems (no up-tick, allowing MASSIVE, rapid, computer-based algorithmic trading...), the down grade, jobs creation difficulties, home prices therefore affected further/still....

 

Are we looking at 10 years of h e double nickels of trouble, that we're maybe 2 years into?

 

Please tell me I'm wrong?

[Utah Bob #35998]

You're wrong.

 

Set 'em up bottles. Tequila, beer, white wine or brandy fer everybody.

Forty Rod's buyin I believe. It's Monday.

[Aunt Jen]

You're wrong.

 

Set 'em up bottles. Tequila, beer, white wine or brandy fer everybody.

Forty Rod's buyin I believe. It's Monday.

:angry:

 

I didn't mean like that, Utah! I meant please give me a good reason why I might be wrong, based in economics

 

( )

Duh—

[Utah Bob #35998]

:angry:

 

I didn't mean like that, Utah! I meant please give me a good reason why I might be wrong, based in economics

 

( )

Duh—

 

I have absolutely no idea if you're wrong or right.

But you said, "Please tell me I'm wrong."

 

So, because I always cater to ladies wishes, I did.

I do have a macro setting on my camera. All it does is make my money appear bigger.

 

Economics ain't my thing.

[Marshal Mo Hare, SASS #45984]

:angry:

 

I didn't mean like that, Utah! I meant please give me a good reason why I might be wrong, based in economics

 

( )

Duh—

 

Well, ahhhm, yuh see, it's like this, if you put all the economists in the world end-to-end and they wouldn't reach a conclusion.

 

Why should I try to do better just to win a Nobel Prize?

[Doc Shapiro]

I would tell you why you're both right and wrong, but the response is political in nature (as it has to be - economics is tied to politics like an abusive marriage).

 

As a hint, I don't see much change for the good for the next 18 months or so.

 

 

[Badlands Bob #61228]

The U.S. economy is going through a correction. We had over inflated housing prices and very loose credit standards. Too many people who financially shouldn't have been buying houses could buy with no money down. This drove up the demand for housing and was a boom time for the related industries. During this time, we also drove most of the manufacturing jobs overseas. When the bubble burst, as it always does, the Federal government felt that a huge influx of cash into the economy would fix the problem. It didn't work. You can't borrow yourself out of debt. Most state and local government made drastic cuts in budgets while the Feds kept borrowing and spending money. It's finally coming to a head and I expect to see some dramatic cuts in Federal spending in the next 5 years. Many of the social programs we are use to seeing are going to get the axe. I also expect to see cuts (adjustments) in Social Security and Medicare programs which will also be painful to some.

 

It's going to be a bumpy ride for those who are dependant on Federal entitlement programs or who have bought a house in the last 5 years. We will come out of this but it will take time.

 

That's my prediction and it's worth exactly what you paid for it.

Badlands Bob

[Aunt Jen]

The U.S. economy is going through a correction. We had over inflated housing prices and very loose credit standards. Too many people who financially shouldn't have been buying houses could buy with no money down. This drove up the demand for housing and was a boom time for the related industries. During this time, we also drove most of the manufacturing jobs overseas. When the bubble burst, as it always does, the Federal government felt that a huge influx of cash into the economy would fix the problem. It didn't work. You can't borrow yourself out of debt. Most state and local government made drastic cuts in budgets while the Feds kept borrowing and spending money. It's finally coming to a head and I expect to see some dramatic cuts in Federal spending in the next 5 years. Many of the social programs we are use to seeing are going to get the axe. I also expect to see cuts (adjustments) in Social Security and Medicare programs which will also be painful to some.

 

It's going to be a bumpy ride for those who are dependant on Federal entitlement programs or who have bought a house in the last 5 years. We will come out of this but it will take time.

 

That's my prediction and it's worth exactly what you paid for it.

Badlands Bob

Yes, Doc, et al.

 

And Bad Bob (Loved your movie, BTW ), your view is worth a great deal more than I paid for it.

[Forty Rod SASS 3935]

I'm so worried about the economy that I just took a large amount from some bonds that had matured and put it into my stock-based mutual funds.

 

One of three things can happen:

 

1. I won't earn or lose a cent. It could be a wash, but it's unlikely.

 

2. The market could be totally destroyed and I'll end up selling my body for sex on dark street corners.

 

3. The market could come back as it always has and I'll end up making a lot of money on the recovery.

 

I spent eleven years helping people make money, save money, get out of debt, and secure their futures. Many stayed the course, some didn't. Those that did have made money and lost money with the programs I enrolled them in, but are way ahead, even with the recession, than the ones who didn't.

 

We need to get the government out of micro-manging everything and diddling markets at every whim. I trust the capitalist system and the American markets.

 

I also agree with Doc about the time frame to the beginning of recovery, and for many of the reasons he alludes to, but some others as well..

[Marshal Mo Hare, SASS #45984]

I'm so worried about the economy that I just took a large amount from some bonds that had matured and put it into my stock-based mutual funds.

 

One of three things can happen:

 

1. I won't earn or lose a cent. It could be a wash, but it's unlikely.

 

2. The market could be totally destroyed and I'll end up selling my body for sex on dark street corners.

 

3. The market could come back as it always has and I'll end up making a lot of money on the recovery.

 

I spent eleven years helping people make money, save money, get out of debt, and secure their futures. Many stayed the course, some didn't. Those that did have made money and lost money with the programs I enrolled them in, but are way ahead, even with the recession, than the ones who didn't.

 

We need to get the government out of micro-manging everything and diddling markets at every whim. I trust the capitalist system and the American markets.

 

I also agree with Doc about the time frame to the beginning of recovery, and for many of the reasons he alludes to, but some others as well..

 

 

I agree. I have quite a chunk of change "in the mail" that by the time it gets here I expect the market will be at ot near bottom and I'll give some thiught to investing in something (not gold).

 

And it if all goes south let me know what street corners you're on, I'll pick a different neighborhood.

[Doc Shapiro]

Lots of good bargains in the market right now. Make sure to do your research though. Wish I had a few $$$$ laying around right now.

[Abilene Slim SASS 81783]

Ask three economists and you'll get three different opinions with lots of caveats. What I want is a one-armed economist so he can't say, "On the other hand..."